Posted on 07/12/2016 10:29:17 AM PDT by usafa92
West Long Branch, NJ - Donald Trump holds a nominal 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the battle for Iowa's electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Chuck Grassley has a 10 point lead over Democratic challenger Patty Judge. This is a far cry from the 30+ point margins Grassley enjoyed in prior re-election bids, as more Iowa voters disapprove than approve of his decision not to hold hearings on Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee.
Among Iowa voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% say they will vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.
Among self-identified Republicans, 87% support Trump while 6% choose Clinton, 5% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among Democrats, 86% support Clinton while 8% choose Trump, 2% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among independents, 39% are with Trump and 35% are with Clinton, while 10% back Johnson and 4% choose Stein or another candidate. Clinton has the lead among women voters by 54% to 33%. Trump has a similar edge among men of 56% to 29%.
One unusual finding in the poll is that Trump leads among voters under 50 years old in Iowa. In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Clinton has held an advantage with younger voters. Specifically, 51% of Iowa voters under age 50 currently support Trump, compared to 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for Stein or another candidate. Among voters age 50 and older, Clinton has the edge with 50% support, compared to 38% for Trump, 4% for Johnson and 1% for Stein or another candidate.
"It's a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Iowa voters take a similarly dim view of both major party candidates. Only 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% hold an unfavorable view of her. Likewise, only 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 51% hold an unfavorable view of him. More than 4-in-10 voters (45%) feel it is very important to keep Clinton from being elected president, which is slightly more than the number (40%) who say the same about Trump.
There is not a clear consensus on which candidate is more likely to help "the little guy" - a campaign theme that has been emerging over the past few weeks. Clinton has a slight edge here, with 38% who say she is more likely to look out for the little guy compared to 30% who say this describes Trump more. Another 4% say this describes both of them equally, but 24% say neither candidate is likely to look out for the little guy.
On the other hand, recent news about how Clinton handled her private email server while Secretary of State poses a drag on her candidacy. More than 4-in-10 Iowa voters (43%) believe that the Democratic nominee acted criminally, another 32% say she showed poor judgment and just 11% say she did nothing out of the ordinary, while another 15% offer no opinion.
Turning to the Hawkeye State's U.S. Senate race, six-term incumbent Chuck Grassley currently has 52% of the likely vote and former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge has 42%. Just over 9-in-10 Republicans (92%) back Grassley and over 8-in-10 Democrats (83%) support Judge. Independents prefer Grassley by a 52% to 40% margin. Grassley leads among men by 66% to 30%, while Judge has an advantage among women of 53% to 40%.
Grassley's job approval numbers are higher than his personal ratings. A majority of likely voters (56%) approve of the overall job he is doing in the Senate while just 33% disapprove. Somewhat fewer voters (46%) have a favorable opinion of him personally, although just 31% have an unfavorable opinion, with 23% registering no opinion. By comparison, Patty Judge gets a 30% favorable and 14% unfavorable personal rating, with 56% registering no opinion of her.
One issue that is keeping Grassley's margin lower than past elections is his decision not to hold Judiciary Committee hearings on Merrick Garland, President Obama's choice to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia. Only 25% of voters approve of Grassley not holding hearings on the nomination - including 48% of Republicans, 22% of independents, and 6% of Democrats. More voters (39%) say they disapprove of the senator's inaction on this issue - including 71% of Democrats, 39% of independents, and 8% of Republicans. Another 36% of Iowa voters have no opinion on this.
"Grassley's overall job approval rating should be enough to give him the win unless Judge can make further inroads on the Garland issue," said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 8 to 11, 2016 with 401 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
Trump seems to be edging up in all these polls. Good news. GO TRUMP GO
watch for the dems to ramp up and also create new stupidities as a slow panic develops, this will further tank their efforts
Good news since the campaign is not yet even formally underway.
Considering that Lyin Ted beat Donald in the Hawkeye primary, this result is interesting and may portend some upsets to conventional wisdom.
Signs of the American People assuming their duty as Killary’s judge, jury and prosecutor!!
This, on the heels of the great Florida polls yesterday, is YUGE!!!
Obama beat Romney there by 6% in 2012.
Iowa has voted democrat starting in 1988, and only once, in 2004, did Bush2 barely squeak out a win. Iowa voted overwhelmingly for 0bama both times.
Thank those white Catholics in eastern Iowa.
Trump’s biggest problem continues to be evangelicals who bought Ted Cruz’s lies.
Once the first debate has concluded, Trump is going to gain a sizeable lead.
Hitlery is also quite unpopular in Iowa; Soetoro smashed her by 10 points in the 2008 RAT primary, during which he had fairly low name recognition.
Ping!.......................
Nice! Love it! Go Trump!!!
Just one poll, and polls are like the sand in the Sahara. They shift with ever little bit of wind.........................But, having said that, “Trend is your friend”.......................
True. And she had to steal this year’s election from Bernie as well.
Monmouth didn’t even poll Iowa ahead of the general election in 2012, so its track record there is unknown.
The Des Moines Register would be a better barometer of sentiment.
I knew us white catholics were good for something :)
Hispanic Catholics make it look like we’re 50/50 or worse.
But you can’t really be Catholic (or Christian or Jewish for that matter) and vote for hillary
obummer won this by 6!!!
this is great news!!
Right?
Monmouth had Clinton with a 4 point lead in New Jersey last month
Looks like Trump is not too far behind her in critical and even blue states, this is not good news for Hillary
Funny story, I was working on the phone system for friend’s business, and a call came through the older analog land line Trunk and I answered it because it is generally out going calls anyways and it is unpublished, it was a polling company, I voted for Hillary, why, just to mess with them. I want her to think she is winning this.
I mentioned what I did to the secretaries there, three women, ages 25 to 40. They just laughed, one said, could you imagine if she actually does win? The Hillary hate came out. And this is Hillary’s demographic, New Jersey women, even they can’t stand her.
I have a feeling, Trump has this in the bag, it will be a blow out, heck it might even be a shut out and Hillary doesn’t even win a single state. But we don’t need to be over confidence, we need to think this is a horse race like the media is pretending this is. And win this thing
Huge. Minion, McLame, and even W all lost IA.
Any details of the poll? How big is the +D margin?
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