Posted on 06/29/2016 12:14:30 PM PDT by detective
Nate Silver has spoken: Hillary Clinton will be the next President.
The famed political pollster — whose past presidential predictions have been freakishly accurate — said Wednesday he gives the presumptive Democratic candidate a 79% chance of winning the White House come November.
Her loud-mouthed Republican rival, Donald Trump, has only a 20% chance of winning, Silver said.
“We're kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she's taking a 7-point, maybe 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver, founder of the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight, said on “Good Morning America.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...
The Cleveland Cavaliers were given a ZERO percent chance from coming back in the NBA Finals after being down 3-1..only 4 teams in NBA History have EVER come back from being down 3-1..the Cavs came back and won 3 straight and won the title. ANYTHING can happen between now and election day. No one gave Trump ANY chance of being the GOP nominee and he beat 17 guys..not saying that Clinton isnt up right now I think she is but I remember McCain being up by 8 points after the Convention, but after the stock market tanked everything changed
Pajama boy gave Trump a 2 percent chance last summer to get the nomination. he had inside information on Obama and was a one hit wonder who has turned out to be just a little political hack
Well, as “broken arrow” said...There’s always democratic fraud...I just think it must be massive to beat Trump...
It will be obvious if it is that big...
That would cause a huge uproar, I hope....
In this day and age, that’s called “objective reporting”.
Yup.
There could be a mega-terrorist attack here or the economy could tank.
Then the polls could change on a dime.
The CW is as good as the facts behind it. Hillary should not think she’ll coast to a win.
Silver made his reputation by predicting the correct general election results of 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and he was correct in 50 out of 50 plus D.C. in 2012.
That does not mean he will be correct in 2016.
“He said Trump was unpopular and would never win the nomination.”
Trump’s unfavorability ratings *are* very high. That, sadly, is just fact. His supporters are fervent, but more people don’t like him than like him. If we want a Republican in the White House, in order to get the votes those favorability ratings need to go up.
You are really misjudging Nate Silver. He has the best methodology of any of the pollsters. He will be dead right come election day - you can count on that.
But I expect Trump to win and I expect Silver to predict that victory - as we approach election day.
Two reasons why:
1. Right now we (and Nate Silver) are dealing mostly with "Elect Hillary Push Polls". That will change but not for awhile.
2. I expect the Trump campaign to do to Hillary the same thing he did to 16 (some great, some not) candidates for the job he is about to win.
Stay loose, critique the crappy polls that have to improve as we move toward election day (in order for them to maintain some level of credibility.) And, most importantly, watch Nate silver slide his projections for a Hillary win down, down, down. Hopefully down to least the low 40's.
You read it here first.
“One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate).”
“So, could Trump win? We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era.4 And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent. Your mileage may vary. But you probably shouldn’t rely solely on the polls to make your case; it’s still too soon for that.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
Have you ever noticed Jews named for precious metals and stones: Gold, Silver, Diamond, Ruby, Saphire.
Unfavorably is not to be counted on as a reliable indicator in times of discontent. The one people dislike the most may get the vote if deemed the more effective.
Nate gave Trump a 5% chance of being the nominee.
So he’s saying Trump has FOUR TIMES as much chance of beating Hillary LOL!
He was terrible (and I'm a big Nate Silver fan - see my previous post.)
He has admitted so. But last time around he was the best and he has a very nice methodology. I'm betting he will do just fine by this November. He has to get rid of the political bias and the seat of the pants stuff that infected his Trump predictions. I think he will.
Why?
One of the reasons for those oversampled polls is to create the idea that Hillary is ahead. This perception provides cover for the Dems massive voter fraud to come. “What voter fraud the polls have had her ahead for months!”
Our challenge in the 21st century will be to stop the US’s slide into 3rd world corruption. We are well on our way courtesy of the leftist public education system and our governmental employees unions.
The boxes are slowly being used up. That forth will be a shock to those who haven’t been paying attention to anything except the social media. They may wind up paying a terrible cost for their inattention.
49er too!
Trump will win in a landslide that will eclipse Reagan’s route of Mondale in 1984.
“Unfavorability” is a worthless metric. Trump has won more votes than any Republican in primary history. These masses of people that don’t like him don’t seem to be bothered enough to actually vote against him.
7 wrong predictions when I heard him——but who’s counting. :-)
Totally agree....
Trump has no more chance of winning than Brexit did. Nate Silver has spoken. It’s time to give up.
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