Posted on 06/16/2016 9:13:17 AM PDT by LS
May/June polls are quite often predictive in that the leader is often the loser in November. At the very least, they were way, way off:
In June 2012, Obama led Romney by 5 but Romney surged into a lead in October, then two ties. Final margin? 4 (Plus 1 swing to the GOP)
In May 2008, John McCain led Obama by 6, yet within a few weeks Obama led McCain by 9-—a 15 point swing. (Plus Plus 15 swing to Dem)
In June 2004, Kerry led Bush by 6. Final margin? Bush won by 3, an error of 9 points. (Plus 9 swing to GOP)
In June 2000, Bush led Algore by 12. Final margin? Tie. (Plus 12 swing to Dem)
In June 1996, Clinton was beating Dole by 16, but the final was only 8. (+8 swing to GOP)
In June 1992, Bush led Clinton by 6 in a three-way, but when Perot dropped out in July he led by 8. Then, suddenly, Clinton shot up to a 20 point lead in July. The final was a Clinton 6-pont advantage. (Plus 12 swing to Dem, but messed up because of 17% vote for Perot)
In June of 1988, Dukakis led Bush by 17 in two different polls-—and ended up losing by 17 (Plus 34 point GOP).
In June of 1984, Reagan led Mon-Dull by 9 . . . but ended up winning by 18-—double the polling estimate (Plus 9 GOP).
In June 1980, Jimmy Carter led Reagan by 7, but lost by 10 (Plus 17 GOP).
In June 1976, Carter led Ford by 18, but the final was 2 and I think had the race gone on one more month Carter would have lost. (Plus 16 GOP)
In June 1972 Nixon led McGovern by 16-—but won by 23 (plus 7 GOP)
In June 1968, Humphrey led Nixon by 5, but lost in a tie (Plus 5 GOP).
June 1964: Everyone remembers the Goldwater blowout, right? 23? Except in June LBJ was beating him by 56 (GOP gain of 32)
June 1960: Although JFK led by 4 in June 1960, it was a popular vote tie (Plus 4 GOP).
June 1956: Likewise Ike won reelection by 17 . . . but had led in June by 27. (Plus 10 for Dems)
June 1952: It was worse---Ike led by 28 in June, but won by only 11, a rather massive 17 point error (Plus 17 for Dems)
In the 11 presidential elections since 1952, the GOP has been underpolled 6 times, Democrats 5 (with one involving a strong third party candidate). The GOP candidates, on average were underpolled by 22.5 points, but Dem underpolling only averaged 13.2, and again, one of those was a "joker" race with a strong third party candidate.
The bottom line is that June polls are slightly more likely to tell us who will lose in November by who is ahead in June. Moreover, we see a much heavier underpolling of Republicans across the board, by a margin of almost 10 points. Even when Republicans lose, they do far better in November than in June.
The polls won’t get honest until Nov.
We better hope this pattern holds this year. Hillary currently leads Trump by 12% and 0bama’s daily approval tracking is on the upswing since his post Islamic attack tirades. Seems this nation is siding with him and Hillary right now.
Pray America wakes.
Said the same ting of Reagan, said the same thing of Ford. Point is, polling lies some, is wrong a lot. When it is wrong, it is usually “more wrong” about a Republican than about a Democrat.
So the 24/7 propaganda, which is always there, is already factored in.
Nah. She leads by 12 in one stupid Bloomie poll. Most polls have hovered in the 3-5 point range, and the state polls are ALL tied +1/-1 in the key battleground states. And, these polls are almost all “registered” voters, not “likely,” so again, there is another factoring down (and another reason the June polls are almost always badly off).
when polls dont go democrats ways, they write hopeful stories like this for their liberal base.
otherwise they write stories saying why bother having the election, its over now based on the polls.
“The bottom line is that...”
Polls have a terrible track record and are mostly garbage designed to give talking heads something to talk about.
polls are based on who is surveyed.
dont put much stock in them anymore.
Polls don’t matter until after the conventions. This is exhibition season.
Consider these FRAUD POLLS, that is all.
Plus also this is summer time, people right now are thinking more about upcoming vacations.
“Nah. She leads by 12 in one stupid Bloomie poll. Most polls have hovered in the 3-5 point range,”
That is still disconcerning to me. Trumps 70% negative rating in the ABC is too. The CBS poll showing 51% disagree with Trumps post Islamic attack positions also. 0bama’s surging approval rating in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking is upsetting to me.
I remember in 2008 and 2012 everyone was saying the polls were biased and wrong, no way were people going to elect 0bama and reelect 0bama. But the polls were right. So I can’t bring myself to disregard the polls anymore. I really believe a majority of people in this country are dumb enough to embrace Islam and elect Hillary.
But all I can do is leave it in Gods hands. I know Trump is the leader we need....but Hillary is the leader we deserve.
Pray America wakes.
This election is resembling 1960.
Like Kennedy, Hillary is leading in June.
She will probably win in November but it will be close.
Last stupid poll showed Georgia as a tossup state! I guarantee you Georgia as well as the rest of the South will be solidly in the Trump column!
Predicting where things will be five months out is impossible. Too many variables.
Yet I just saw another poll saying over 50% AGREE with his Muslim position; and a VERY critical biography (”Never Enough” admits that Trump’s “negatives” are purely in the realm of “reality TV” and are not traditional political negatives-—as I have said for eight months.
No way a guy with 70% negatives wins 70% of the GOP vote in these primary states-—the math doesn’t even work.
Polling before things like Conventions, VP choices, Debates, reactions to 5 months of whatever the world has to throw at us is basically pointless.
Yet Trump gets more people to his gatherings. That beats any polls.
What happened in Orlando handed the White House to the Donald.
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