Posted on 06/14/2016 11:10:26 AM PDT by detective
One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that.
There's just one problem: Its creator doesn't believe his own forecast.
Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1992.
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
There’s an error in that cartoon under 1952. Eisenhower DID carry the House and Senate for the Republicans (but promptly lost both in 1954).
I was in a McDonald's the day after Hillary clinched the nomination. A black gentleman greeted me by saying, "Looks like we're going to have our first woman president!" Surrounded as I was, I said, "Yeah, politics—wow!" and ordered my breakfast. (Wasn't wearing my MAGA shirt.)
Yup. Same reason I won’t put a Trump sticker on my truck. I don’t want it keyed. Hey, it’s 16 years old with 200k miles but it runs like new and looks dam* good. Plus, I’m a cheap bastard and don’t want a $450 per month payment.
I’ll agree with the enemy to avoid any confrontation.
It’s why I said the polls are severely distorted in cankles favor.
OMgosh -- best one yet! "Bill Clinton is a congenitalia liar..." ROFLMAO!!
Every president until Obama had blue eyes.
All should remember that we have electronic voting now.
It will take a long time and the large corporations locations to be rid of PC.
Trump in a landslide!
This is true. I work for one, and if I were to say the slightest critical thing regarding any person belonging to one of the myriad “protected classes,” my at-will employment would be terminated immediately. The companies are afraid of Federal & state bureaucracies, lawsuits, and their customers, and they’ve caved to the PC Nazis.
It is going to take “events”, such as what has just happen to help push into the right direction.
It will be very interesting when Mr. Trump does get elected how the PC Nazis act.
I do believe that what could cause Hillary to win, would be MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD. The reason why we have Mr. Obama is because of it.
I still do believe Mr. Trump will win it because this country is in bigtime trouble.
Rush said it first, and I still say it. Lie to pollsters. Sabotage their results until nobody takes them seriously anymore.Then the model makers will collapse, and one day all politicians will have to navigate by is their own moral compass and heartfelt beliefs.
And the cartoon shows 3 dozen limiting factors.
What would be interesting is take 100 facts about the Presidents and roll out a list of several thousand "coincidences". That would be quite revealing and fun to see. And Wikipedia would make the data collection so much easier.
That is why I believe Trump is going to win. Folks I do believe will lie to the polls because they do want to catch flak from the Dems and left.
That is why I have not seen a lot of Trump political yard signs, saw some, but not many I believe because of concerns of them being stolen.
Correction:
That is why I believe Trump is going to win. Folks I do believe will lie to the polls because they do not want to catch flak from the Dems and left.
Thanks disndat.
This is good news. But this is the most unpredictable election that I’ve ever seen. I have no idea what’ll happen.
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