Posted on 06/14/2016 11:10:26 AM PDT by detective
One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that.
There's just one problem: Its creator doesn't believe his own forecast.
Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1992.
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
They have spent well over $100 million trying to destroy Trump and remarkably they have failed.
The MSM are all corrupt, dishonest and in the tank for Clinton. Their continual dishonesty and constant attacks on Trump have had their effect but Trump should still win.
Silent majority who believe as DJT, but in such a hyper-PC environment would lose their jobs and have their lives destroyed if they spoke up. I think Trump is going to trounce Clinton.
The model predicted Mitt Romney would choke like a dog?
Of course he doesn’t believe his own model because the result could end his grant train.
Surprised he didn’t just change the results like the climate change scientists.
Clever. Thanks for sharing.
Wow, what a minimalist cartoon... but effective!
We are on the verge of history and it is not on Hillary side, it is that a TRUE outsider is going to become President.
by Jove, you’ve unlocked the Carl Rove secret to sounding important on air without actually being important.
“but look at the negatives, no candidate has ever won the presidency with those negatives.”
Trump has been written off how many times?
The truth is that the “hyper-PC environment” is as of now is DYING.
You know what happens when our narrative doesn’t link up with the truth?
More folks are supporting Trump but will keep it quiet because they do not want to be treated with ill will.
The Dems are being exposed big time.
297,634 by my count.
Don’t worry. He’ll drop out any day now.
It is way too early to predict who will win. Anything can and will happen in the next few weeks and months. The Conventions have not happened, the debates, the VP selections etc... Besides that any new attacks, scandals, natural or man made disasters could all impact the race.
Absolutely.
I had on a blue shirt the other day and was approached by two 20 somethings wearing bernie shirts. they asked me if I was a bernie supporter. I said yes. They gave me a high five and walked away.
Hey it beats getting into a shouting match (or worse) at the mall.
these polls are getting serious misdirection.
He stil has time to “refine” it.
“Trump has been written off how many times?”
EVERY time.
Also, so this guy doesn’t believe his own model? Does that mean he’s calling himself a liar?? This guy may very have achieved a new level of denial.
I sense those 20 somethings know that if Bernie does not go indy, they will end up either staying home or voting for Trump and after what happened in Orlando.
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