Posted on 06/03/2016 5:17:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
While conservative America wrings its hands over Donald Trump’s chances of beating Hillary Clinton, let’s take a moment to anticipate an event next week that would objectively, demonstrably hurt her chances no matter what any Republican does. Let us pause to assess the delicious ramifications of a Bernie Sanders win in the California primary Tuesday night.
I get giddy thinking about it. Every day of my political life right now is geared toward attracting all hands on deck for the universal necessity of preventing her presidency. The bulk of that task currently involves luring to clarity those remaining rebellious souls who can’t get past their Trump gripes to realize the necessity of this mission.
Yet along this path comes an event which could wound her chances, even fatally. This is not just a right-wing fantasy; it is in fact respected Democrat pollster Doug Schoen who penned the Wall Street Journal column this week headlined “Clinton Might Not Be The Nominee.”
The mind fairly spins. If not, then what?
One step at a time. Could Hillary lose California? Sure she could. The realclearpolitics.com polling average shows her up by six, but that is wildly inflated by a possible outlier survey showing her up by nearly twenty. The other three current polls, including NBC/Wall Street Journal, each have her up by two.
So what is likely over the weekend? Imagine a split screen. On one side, Bernie will be washed in the loud adulation of grizzled hippies, communists and mush-brained college kids. He will be relaxed, confident and aggressive against Hillary, who for her part may not mention his name much at all.
She will be busy screeching through ill-delivered attacks on Donald Trump, on the gamble that it is wise to look past Bernie to put on the mantle of presumed nominee. She is probably right about that, but if Bernie’s amped-up legions are itching to deliver one last primary blow to her, there may be no stopping them.
So what then?
It all depends on the party loyalist upper-crusters who populate the thoroughly corrupt Democrat superdelegate system. Her 543-44 lead in those rarefied ranks is the only reason we have been told forever that Bernie has no chance. Without them, he would have a solid chance, since among delegates earned through real voting, he is only behind 1,769 to 1,501.
To win the Democrat nomination prize in Philadelphia at the end of next month 2,383 delegates are needed. She will win New Jersey on June 7 and thus most of its 142 delegates. But if he can snag a big bite of that California mother lode of 546, he might at least keep her from the magic number, which opens the door for what we thought the Republicans would have to navigate— an open convention.
But that would require a massive defection of superdelegates, a long shot even if Bernie delivers a wound in the California popular vote.
Sure, some superdelegates would bail. There is a natural inclination to follow the scent of a winner if the tide is turning. But remember that these are deeply rooted creatures of the Democratic Party machine, most of whom cast their fate with Hillary early on.
They may regret that decision back when it looked like a coronation lay ahead, but they must know the dire price to be exacted for anyone jumping from the Clinton ship if she eventually wins anyway. Don’t expect widespread willingness to burn that bridge. Bernie’s forces may offer a convention rule requiring superdelgates to vote for the candidate that won their state, but that will be a tough fight in a convention hall packed with Hillary’s power brokers.
But what if Doug Schoen’s speculations do play out? It is exhilarating to consider Hillary derailed from the prize she has expected since the day she announced. But be careful what you wish for.
If Bernie can find a way to claw his way to the nomination, Republican ads will run the next morning featuring his smiling face with a hammer and sickle alongside. His base will come out in November, but he will lose independents by historic margins.
If Democrats get to hit a reset button in Philadelphia, Joe Biden may literally ride out onto the Wells Fargo Center stage on a white horse, arriving to rescue the party from Hillary’s scandals and campaign clumsiness and Bernie’s unelectability.
Biden has relatability and a campaign skill set Hillary can only dream of. And while he does not inspire Sanders-caliber adoration, he can tap into the collective goodwill of Democratic voters who have generally appreciated his years as vice president and his previous 36 years of service in the U.S. Senate.
So sure, a Sanders clubbing of Hillary in California would be a night of glee for conservatives. But if it turns out to be the beginning of the end for her, we’d better hope he winds up the eventual nominee and not Biden, who is harder to beat than either of them.
The cankled one is done, both sides ... twice
Uh, Hillary is still the nominee short of being indicted.
She still gets half the delegates and wins the nomination.
A lot of “if, then” and so “if, then” this next thing.
Would the Democratic voters really accept having Clinton just summarily pulled from the nomination?? Millions have voted for her and supported her and truly believe in her, even though of course that’s not unanimous. I think dumping her and propping up an old white stooge like Biden in her place would make a lot of women voters very angry at the party.
Good article. But, isn’t it interesting, indeed amazing, that perennial primary loser Biden is now considered most formidable?
“Conservative America wrings its hands over Donald Trump’s chances of beating Hillary Clinton...”
Ridiculous and ill informed (not reflecting today’s currents) statement.
American patriots are feeling glee because Donald Trump will almost certainly beat Hillary Clinton in a Reaganesque landslide accomplished with independents and crossover voters.
The idea that conservatives are “hand wringing” is offensive.
Good thing McLame isn't running or we'd hear "he's a good man and you have nothing to fear about him." Up until this year, I doubt the Republicans would run such an ad. They would be perfect gentlemen and not mention this slight flaw.
LOL, what if??? Hillary had the nomination before any primary was held. It makes no difference numerically if she wins CA. That said, the media will have to work OT to spin perception on her loss (if she does lose). Theyll just have to work harder to make her appear presidential. In the end it matters little whether its Hillary or Bernie...the dems will fall in line because both are cut from the same rotten cloth.
Hildabeast will find a way to steal it.
Trump will trounce Hillary. She’s the worst candidate in history. Entitled, not charismatic, not likable, completely dishonest etc...
Trump will struggle with Sanders. They share many of the same messages but have different answers to the common problems. Both are both populists but Sanders has been at it longer and is better at it than Trump. Sanders has charisma. A summer full of Sanders alone will unite the democrats and his populist “eat the rich” message will play MUCH better with independents once he gets the full microphone.
Trump will lose to Biden. He’s a gaffe machine, sure, but he gets the same “Oh, that Joe...” kind of pass that Bill Clinton got. He’s got charisma to spare and none of the mud on him that both Hillary and Bernie have. And while the Bernie supporters will be ticked that Bernie doesn’t get the nomination, they’ll get over it when Biden chooses Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.
Kalifornia matters a lot. If Sanders wins or ties Hillary, it will reinforce the behind the scenes panic at the top of the Democrat hierarchy. The potential downside effect on donations to Hillary is a concern.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if big donors that Hillary depends on didn’t return phone calls. That would increase the calls for her to drop out. With more details of the FBI’s criminal investigation surfacing almost daily, there’s no upside potential for her in the future.
At some point “the talk” will happen. She’ll have to withdraw. The excuse will be medical reasons. If she doesn’t she’ll be facing a special prosecutor. That’s the sign that Hillary’s been thrown under the bus.
While people may mouth support, real support will dry up fast. Look for more puff pieces featuring Biden. We’ve already seen them. Someone is hedging their bet.
But since most of Cal's larger cities and towns are controlled by "ethnic" persuasions who favor Xlinton, we should assume the voting facilities will be heavily calibrated to force what is considered a crucial win for The Hag.
A lot of useless speculation in my opinion. Her lies carried her too far into the nomination process. Had her lies been exposed very early on, then Bernie most likely would have won.
Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz made sure that Hillary Rotten Clinton wins the nomination by awarding her more delegates to her right at the beginning
On what planet? Biden is a doddering, clueless joker. A dirty old man.
Trump will struggle with Sanders.
How will Trump "struggle" to extol the benefits of Capitalism while citing recent examples of the evil and epic fail of Communism? (hello Venezuela.)
If Trump can't bury Stalin's son or Satan's daughter, America has much bigger problems requiring even yuger solutions.
There is no doubt about it.
Well the reason she has so many delegates is because she has been awarded several hundred super delegates right at the beginning.
I will contend the hillary has lost if she has less CA support than she did eight years ago.
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