Posted on 04/06/2016 11:16:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday shows Trump taking 52 percent support, followed by Kasich at 25 percent. Ted Cruz has 17 percent.
The April 19 primary in New York will go a long way toward determining whether Trump can reach the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright and avoid a contested convention.
At Trump’s current level of support, he’s on pace to take a strong majority of the state’s 95 delegates, and it appears that he may run the board.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.
A majority of New York Republicans — 57 percent — said Trump’s myriad controversial remarks, from musing about punishing women who get abortions should they be made illegal to encouraging a nuclear arms race in Asia, will have no impact on how they vote in the primary.
Twenty-nine percent said Trump’s controversial remarks make them less likely to support him, while 7 percent said they’re more likely to support Trump because of his comments.
Seventy-two percent of Republicans in New York say that sharing their home state with Trump will have no bearing on whether they support him or not. Fourteen percent said they’re proud to hail from the same state as Trump, while 13 percent said they’re embarrassed.
Kasich is the Republican candidate who does best in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to pollsters.
If the Ohio governor were the GOP nominee, 80 percent of Republican primary voters said they’d cast a ballot for him over Clinton. Only 70 percent said the same of Trump, and 66 percent of Cruz.
“It is interesting that Kasich would be a stronger nominee in Trump’s home state, but it is purely academic,” said Murray. “There is almost no probability that any Republican would be able to win New York’s electoral votes.”
Kasich has no chance to win the nomination outright, but is staying in the race in hopes of an open convention. He’s argued that he’ll run stronger than Cruz as the anti-Trump alternative in upcoming contests in the northeast.
There is still an opening, however, for Kasich and Cruz to make gains on Trump, the poll found.
Forty percent of New York Republicans said they are unlikely to change their minds from the candidate they currently support, but 34 percent said they’re willing to consider a different candidate. Twelve percent said they’re hardly committed to their candidate at all, and 14 percent are undecided.
The Monmouth survey of 302 likely New York GOP primary voters was conducted between April 3 and April 5 and has 5.6-percentage-point margin of error.
Will Trump drop out?
GO! SON OF A MAILMAN!!
He isn't at 53% in his home state!
“Kasich is the Republican candidate who does best in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to pollsters. “
I am not sure Cruz can, how can Kasich have a chance.
I just saw cruz asked about NY values, seems he put his foot in his mouth over that and tried to answer by saying the mayor of NY City which is not all of NY.
I think he will be asked many times about that and it will hurt him.
The media might hate Trump, hell they do hate him, but they also don’t like being put down off a guy who thinks he is better than them.
Because Soros paid for those pollsters.
Trump will gain delegates in districts that are huge majority Democrat.
For example he gets three delegates for a district that votes 90% Democrat and based on a handful of votes he gets three delegates, the same as if he won a district that is heavily republican.
This is how he is benefitted by the establishment rules.
Kasich is best to win, but can’t beat Trump or cruz
cruz is best to win and yet can’t beat Trump.
“The total sample of 302 likely voters includes 201
contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and
101 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in
English”
302 Voters... YUGE Sample size
Don’t be surprised if a Cruz motorcade gets jammed up in NYC by some concrete or trash trucks. NYC does not forget !!
Being a conservative New Yorker (not many of us left), I understood that Cruz was talking about the majority of libs in NYC, and he is correct. By the way, Cruz should have made a stronger argument that that was from Trump’s’94 Meet the Depressed interview with Russert where he talked about his lib NY values. http://www.dailywire.com/news/2651/heres-video-proof-trumps-cynical-phony-new-york-ben-shapiro
One thing about NY is that they are in your face and don’t mess about.
cruz is going to a place where he had put down the entire state and now is trying to say it is the Mayor or Sharpton.
Don’t think it will wash at all. He will also face the media which he has never faced before. This is not WI where he had a friendly media , they don’t mess about there in their local channels.
If Trump gets greater than 50% in New York, Cruz is mathematically eliminated.
agree he meant NY City , but he never said that and the media will not mention it.
Not only that many people work in the city , but do not live in the city and they will remember his value comment too or so I am told by those who I know who live there.
Clinton/Cruz hardest hit.
The best part is in the upcoming states Kasich really does start damaging teddy bares.
“Ted Cruz has 17 percent.”
OMG. He should give some delegates back.
Trump will win most of the delegates as he should but coming in with more than 50% will be hard to do. Cruz will walk away with a few and so will Kasick
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