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Iowa Caucus - Free Republic Prediction Thread
Various Polls ^ | January 31, 2016 | nwrep

Posted on 01/31/2016 7:31:08 AM PST by nwrep

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To: erlayman

I have heard from more than one campaign that this new Microsoft system is quite good. We need to get the Santorum/Romney debacle of 4 years ago behind us.


61 posted on 01/31/2016 9:48:14 AM PST by cornfedcowboy
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To: cornfedcowboy

Iowa GOP caucus rules have changed for this election. Monday night will be a secret-ballot primary in all but name, absolutely binding 27 national delegate votes to the presidential preference results.

Normal caucus business will take place after the presidential preference vote.


62 posted on 01/31/2016 9:50:31 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: jjotto

This is good to know. The Paul folks tries to hijack the delegates at the convention.


63 posted on 01/31/2016 9:55:10 AM PST by cornfedcowboy
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To: DoughtyOne

I think you misunderstand me. I said in the nicest way I know how that I don’t think Ivanka is presidential material. I never said she wasn’t nice or smart. She is both. Just because somebody’s dad runs for President is a poor reason to suddenly start projecting them for President. You have no foundation for it. The girl has so far done nothing in life that would lead anyone to believe she is capable of being President. Shes’s like 32 years old and as far as I know has not evidenced any desire for politics.


64 posted on 01/31/2016 10:03:51 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: VanDeKoik

Trump 31, Cruz 22, Rubio 21.


65 posted on 01/31/2016 10:05:16 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Georgia Girl 2

I didn’t bring her up. Another poster did, and projected it forward 12 years.

She’s helping to run her dad’s empire right now, and that’s already more top level private sector experience than Ted has.

I don’t care if she runs or not. I don’t advocate for it. I simply state she’s no light weight and could easily fill that bill > IMO.

Who knows, it may be Ivanka vs Chelsea the way Democrats operate.


66 posted on 01/31/2016 10:15:41 AM PST by DoughtyOne (the Free Republic Caucus: what FReepers are thinking, 100s or 1000s of them. It's up to you.)
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To: DoughtyOne

At this point can we agree that we have exhausted all interest in discussing Ivanka for President? :-)


67 posted on 01/31/2016 10:22:32 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

I’m not the one that jumped on the idea with both feet.


68 posted on 01/31/2016 10:29:19 AM PST by DoughtyOne (the Free Republic Caucus: what FReepers are thinking, 100s or 1000s of them. It's up to you.)
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To: jjotto

Is that the same set of rule for Democrats ? If it is Clinton v. Sanders on a secret ballot I would give the edge to Hillary.


69 posted on 01/31/2016 10:29:43 AM PST by erlayman (yw)
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To: xzins

I’m going out on a limb and adding a big +factor for Trump and for Sanders. I don’t think people realize how big of a zeitgeist has gotten behind either of them.

Trump 43% Cruz 23%
Sand 51% Clinton 38%


70 posted on 01/31/2016 10:32:15 AM PST by Fhios (FR inception date 2015. I must be a mole for whoever I'm currently supporting.)
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To: nwrep

Trump 29, Cruz 24, Rubio 19, Carson 10.


71 posted on 01/31/2016 10:32:52 AM PST by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: nwrep
BFL

I wanna see who is the best Freeper Forecaster. ; )

72 posted on 01/31/2016 10:36:31 AM PST by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: Fhios

After the Cruz mailing, that could happen.

But, the Iowa ethanol issue is what might actually push his numbers as high as you are saying.

It is people’s jobs. And every one of them have fathers, mothers, siblings, cousins, etc. And they say at New Year’s get together, “it’s my job if they screw this up.”

So, it’s not just the one man’s job. It’s all the family united to protect him.


73 posted on 01/31/2016 10:38:56 AM PST by xzins (Have YOU Donated to the Freep-a-Thon? https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: nwrep
I'm in Iowa. I've been to 4 caucuses. Many of the polls, including the DM Register are assuming some massive turnout, almost twice the biggest ever. If that happens, Trump will indeed win. But it ain't happnin. Primary probably. But not for a caucus.

On the D side, Bernie's peeps are way under polled. Bernie is going to win by a substantial margin.

Democrats Bernie 52%, Hillary 45%, O'Malley 2%, and uncommitted will have a percent

Republicans Cruz 32%, Trump 30%, Rubio 12%, Carson 8%, Paul 8% (the only ones above 5%)

I have my nose to the ground here on this stuff. I'm just not seeing the interest of a massive turnout to attend the caucuses.

74 posted on 01/31/2016 10:39:31 AM PST by Pappy Smear
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To: nwrep

My prediction:

More bickering at FR

We’ll get over it.


75 posted on 01/31/2016 10:40:10 AM PST by Peter W. Kessler ("NUTS!!!")
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To: nwrep; BigEdLB; mkjessup

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, the rest of the Pubbie field;

I concur, Sanders over Hitlery, her internal polling can’t be showing such a long lead over Sanders that she’d be saying the stuff about Iowa (and gun confiscation) that she’s been saying during her east coast swing. Either she’s too drunk to care, or she’s behind and can’t quite catch up.


76 posted on 01/31/2016 10:42:33 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: mountn man

Nice touch.


77 posted on 01/31/2016 10:42:49 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: VanDeKoik

I think you are right. Cruz in 3rd


78 posted on 01/31/2016 10:44:23 AM PST by BRL
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To: erlayman

Iowa Democrats have completely different set of rules. They retain the caucus format, where supporters must pick a candidate that meets a threshold (15%, I think) to qualify for a delegate to the next level. I believe Dems also have an odd formula for allocating votes.


79 posted on 01/31/2016 10:47:48 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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How the Iowa caucus works — and why it’s different from New Hampshire’s primary
Jan. 30, 2016 at 1:04 PM
Eun Kyung Kim
http://www.today.com/news/how-iowa-caucus-works-why-it-s-different-new-hampshire-t69301


80 posted on 01/31/2016 10:56:10 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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