There’s a finite amount of wealth in the world. How can everyone collapse???
He's already here.
Oh this post is wrong.
What is about to happen, is that production will return to America from China and other countries. Because Donald Trump is going to win.
Nothing less, nothing more.
...is upon us.
Things will ever so slowly grind to a halt. And it won't matter who our next president is - they will only have a box of bandaids for a sucking chest wound.
For you procrastinators, start prepping NOW.
("Even so Lord Jesus, come quickly")
Earlier today in response to a similar post I wrote the following. Debt, manipulation of the economy in stupid ways and demographics are all coming together at once to create deflation. There is just too much stuff out there and not enough being done with it. We have a world of surplus / excess from machinery to houses. People want less, need less and can afford less from the looks of things. For example, my son will inherit three FULL houses of stuff he doesn’t need. He has a smaller house and no kids and won’t have any kids. A lot of it is really good stuff from great machine tools from two workshops to hand crafted solid hard wood furniture. He just does not need it so it is surplus. That means that something else will not be built.
It has looked to me for several years that the old long term market is not what it used to be. Higher frequency and higher amplitude disruptions in a system usually mean a major change from a previous pattern is coming. The boomer era of consumption is about over. Add to that smaller fewer houses, cars and devices result in less materials consumed.
It took from 3/2/09 until 1/1/13 for the DOW to return to the pre-recession level of 10/1/07 at about 13900. That was an agonizing 3 years and nine months. One of the longest recoveries in history.
From 1/1/07 until now the Dow has grown a “whopping†2.75% and had two big “corrections†since the recovery began.
Let’s look at some other periods:
-40.4% The GREAT “recession†10/1/07 to 3/2/09
-14.3% I think the chickens have come home to roost 3/2/15 to 1/15/16
-.8% Carter years 1/1/77 to 1/1/81
10.81% Reagan and Bush I years 1/1/81 to 1/1/93
15.75% Clinton years 1/1/93 to 1/1/01 after the “peace dividend†and the dot com boom. Even clintoon had enough sense not to screw up the economy
-2.19% Bush II years after 9/11 that took at least four years to recover from 1/1/01 to 1/1/09 9/11 was a much bigger event that many remember. The war that followed was a huge expense and the defense industrial complex made out like bandits.
9.82% Obongo years 1/1/09 to 1/1/16 when more than 4 trillion dollars have been printed and pumped into the markets with interest rates less than 2%. The economy has been pilloried in every way possible to create a massive atmosphere of FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, DOUBT and CONFUSION. Just like the obongo plan called for to fundamentally change America.
In the years since 1979 until 12/31/15 the DOW increased at a more traditional 8.5%
In periods starting 1/1/79 and ending 10, 20, 30 and 37 years later the rates of return were:
RoR For period from 1/1/79 and ending on date:
10.28% 1/1/89
12.93% 1/1/99
8.39% 1/1/09
8.37% 1/1/16
It looks to me like the nation has been running out of steam and is like an old car that can’t be fixed and obongo has run it without oil to finish it off.
20 years of war since the Bush years has not helped one bit either.
You can check your own periods of interest if you want to:
https://www.measuringworth.com/DJIA_SP_NASDAQ/#
I got out of college in the mid-70s and have invested for retirement ever since. I was probably one of only a few 22 year olds that asked for the retirement trust financial reports at Exxon when I started. In the last 40 years I have never seen such a long and miserable time in this country as the last 10 to 15 and surely the last 7 has been the worst of that time for outright general depression of the people.
In the last 40 years the oil industry has had busts and some massive layoffs in 1979 that few remember, 1982, 1986 through at least 1994 and it may not have ended because another came in 1998, 2001 and 2008 and again now in 2015. It has not been a steady life at all.
It could simply be demographics and the aging of the nation but I don’t think that is the real cause our economy and the mood of the nation is now so bad.
You loan to me,
We'll live in prosperity...
Sounds like a Barney Song.
'little people' can't kite paper...
What are the real market costs of goods and the value of money? Remember deflation is the opposite of inflation.
The Country will only become healthy again when raw materials/unfinished parts are transformed into useable products by labor in this country.
Yes but all they have to do is print more money and buy more stocks with it and they will force the prices back up again. Limited supply of stock shares versus infinite potential supply of dineros
Any of you guys bought groceries lately?
Nearly everything I buy (food and over-the-counter medicine, etc.) regularly has gone up 10-100% in the last year.
We are in a stock market correction.
Stocks are being re-priced closer in general to their true value.
Stocks are supposed to be merely a means of buying future income. Stocks are not race horses, sports teams or beautiful paintings. In valuing stocks, unemotional reasoning should be applied.
Oil is in a temporary decline due to Saudi population pressures and the desire of US producers to meet agreed upon debt repayments.
Oil can not be produced in the US in the long term at the prices now being obtained , so it won’t be. Government need o nothing. However, it could buy domestic oil wells cheaply.
As for deflation, doctors and dentists aren’t lowering their prices and they won’t be. Plumbers and other repairmen won’t be charging less in my town.
Do you think health insurance will be getting cheaper? Only if your name is Barack.
If house prices fall by twenty percent in my town, houses will still be overpriced.
And if the $20,000 that I have in bank CDs buys more when the CDs mature, I won’t complain if I should be so lucky.
History shows markets always correct themselves. We knew it was coming, just when, how bad, and how long will it last is always unpredictable.
Considering corrections are enevitable, better now than in a year or two simply because it will happen on obamas watch.
I see recovery about the time Trump or Cruz is sworn in, and whatever they do can only make it better.
You mean our money might actually be worth something again?
In the last year of the Clinton Administration the stock market collapsed. No one blamed Clinton.
In the last year of the BUSH Administration, the stock market collapsed. Everyone blamed Bush.
I’ve been expecting the market to collapse in the Obama Administration and HERE IT IS! So, who do we blame for this one?
Why is that a problem? What's the proper amount of debt growth versus GDP? Why?
ZeroHedgers hasn’t been this excited since 2007.
They think they will rule with their little piles of gold when everything collapses.
They wish for suffering on a planetary scale and they will continue to be disappointed. There will be no collapse. There will be a slow sinking into a dark age with Islam eventually ruling the world by sheer force of numbers.
Their gold will not save them. Nothing will save them or the rest of us.
Welfare has destroyed the work ethic for too many here in the US.
Back around the last big crash I read of the M-something (don’t remember the number) which is the designation for the amount in dollars of printed physical money. It was a VANISHING fraction of the amount of the money people “have” in the bank. It was NOTHING really.
Weirdly enough it was the market and subsequent economic collapse right prior to obama’s election that was most likely the issue that put obama over the top.
Same thing appears to be happening now. Looks like “the market” doesn’t want Hillary to be elected.
Nope, dept is not a zero sum game. Countries, especially larger ones whose dept is in their own currency, can always devalue. They borrow dollars worth 100 yen and pay back in dollars worth 80 yen. You didn’t see it but the loan was devalued, therefore the debt was devalued.
As long as people believe in the dollar or Yen or Euro, this macro economy game can continue. It’s when their countries don’t play it very well that they feel the pain. The US does not play it perfectly but, we play it better than the rest of the world on average. And that is all we have to do.
The US, for now and the foreseeable future, owns the board. We are a huge importer and exporter and we have gobs of raw materials. And best of all, we have a growing productive population. You may say that Germany or Japan have more productive populations and, that may be true. But in both cases their populations are shrinking and they have few raw materials. China is in the same situation. That is why they dropped the one baby rule.
And its why the German government is okay letting a million young men into the country. Someone there had the bright idea of opening the flood gates to emigrant cheap labour. They have been getting Turkish emigrants for years. But they need more so, don’t think they are bringing in the emigrants because they are nice. Charity has little to do with it.
The money supply is like the universe. Its growing all the time and nobody notices. The reason we don’t notice is because we are the biggest. And because almost every other large country is increasing their debt faster than we are. If Germany was not held back by the debt of Spain, Italy, France and the rest, we might have an issue. The US debt is not a problem as long as there is no other currency or equivalent to measure the value against. It looked like gold or oil would be that bench mark. But as you can see, both are also expanding in supply so as to keep the value of each relatively low. (Governments, especially the US, control the supply of both gold and Oil.)
The Fed may or may not do the right thing. But increasing the money supply is not a problem affecting the stock market. If it were, the price of oil and gold would be going up, not down. The problem is not our debt. But it is our dependence on Government spending. This is different. Because its Congress, and not the Fed, who controls the crack.
Our free market is increasingly dependent on the spending of governments. When the government starts to save money we go into a recession. This causes taxes to go down. So the government spends its way into more debt and pulls forward lots of spending, sowing the seeds of the next recession. Additionally, it fosters cronyism and unnecessary or unproductive spending and an increasingly larger government workforce which produces an increasingly more expensive government retirement population. If we could control our government spending so it did not grow, we could slow this spiral. And the fed would not need to act as much.