Earlier today in response to a similar post I wrote the following. Debt, manipulation of the economy in stupid ways and demographics are all coming together at once to create deflation. There is just too much stuff out there and not enough being done with it. We have a world of surplus / excess from machinery to houses. People want less, need less and can afford less from the looks of things. For example, my son will inherit three FULL houses of stuff he doesn’t need. He has a smaller house and no kids and won’t have any kids. A lot of it is really good stuff from great machine tools from two workshops to hand crafted solid hard wood furniture. He just does not need it so it is surplus. That means that something else will not be built.
It has looked to me for several years that the old long term market is not what it used to be. Higher frequency and higher amplitude disruptions in a system usually mean a major change from a previous pattern is coming. The boomer era of consumption is about over. Add to that smaller fewer houses, cars and devices result in less materials consumed.
It took from 3/2/09 until 1/1/13 for the DOW to return to the pre-recession level of 10/1/07 at about 13900. That was an agonizing 3 years and nine months. One of the longest recoveries in history.
From 1/1/07 until now the Dow has grown a “whopping†2.75% and had two big “corrections†since the recovery began.
Let’s look at some other periods:
-40.4% The GREAT “recession†10/1/07 to 3/2/09
-14.3% I think the chickens have come home to roost 3/2/15 to 1/15/16
-.8% Carter years 1/1/77 to 1/1/81
10.81% Reagan and Bush I years 1/1/81 to 1/1/93
15.75% Clinton years 1/1/93 to 1/1/01 after the “peace dividend†and the dot com boom. Even clintoon had enough sense not to screw up the economy
-2.19% Bush II years after 9/11 that took at least four years to recover from 1/1/01 to 1/1/09 9/11 was a much bigger event that many remember. The war that followed was a huge expense and the defense industrial complex made out like bandits.
9.82% Obongo years 1/1/09 to 1/1/16 when more than 4 trillion dollars have been printed and pumped into the markets with interest rates less than 2%. The economy has been pilloried in every way possible to create a massive atmosphere of FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, DOUBT and CONFUSION. Just like the obongo plan called for to fundamentally change America.
In the years since 1979 until 12/31/15 the DOW increased at a more traditional 8.5%
In periods starting 1/1/79 and ending 10, 20, 30 and 37 years later the rates of return were:
RoR For period from 1/1/79 and ending on date:
10.28% 1/1/89
12.93% 1/1/99
8.39% 1/1/09
8.37% 1/1/16
It looks to me like the nation has been running out of steam and is like an old car that can’t be fixed and obongo has run it without oil to finish it off.
20 years of war since the Bush years has not helped one bit either.
You can check your own periods of interest if you want to:
https://www.measuringworth.com/DJIA_SP_NASDAQ/#
I got out of college in the mid-70s and have invested for retirement ever since. I was probably one of only a few 22 year olds that asked for the retirement trust financial reports at Exxon when I started. In the last 40 years I have never seen such a long and miserable time in this country as the last 10 to 15 and surely the last 7 has been the worst of that time for outright general depression of the people.
In the last 40 years the oil industry has had busts and some massive layoffs in 1979 that few remember, 1982, 1986 through at least 1994 and it may not have ended because another came in 1998, 2001 and 2008 and again now in 2015. It has not been a steady life at all.
It could simply be demographics and the aging of the nation but I don’t think that is the real cause our economy and the mood of the nation is now so bad.
"You're a great old car but you can't climb hills worth a damn."
Yep. It has been one heck of a ride.
In the last 40 years I have never seen such a long and miserable time in this country as the last 10 to 15 and surely the last 7 has been the worst of that time for outright general depression of the people.
Great examples, and great stuff in the rest of your post.
I was reading articles describing the very complex rationale behind the saying that Google, Facebook, and Amazon are actually not profitable.
It is all a web.
On top of that, your statement about the excess of goods out there that people just don't want to buy is correct.