Posted on 01/01/2016 7:13:20 AM PST by RKBA Democrat
During the last half of 2015, a specter haunted the Republican "invisible primary" for the 2016 presidential nomination: an independent run for president by Donald Trump that would split the GOP base and send a Democrat gliding into the White House.
As he consolidated a position in the polls as the GOP front-runner, Trump was maneuvered into signing a party loyalty pledge (required to get onto the ballot in South Carolina), and then ruled out an indie run at and after a December candidate debate. With a guy like Trump, an abandonment of this doubled-down oath is always possible, especially if an Establishment cabal emerges to anoint, say, Marco Rubio as the designated Trump-killer. But he's sure poured a lot of gratuitous cold water on the idea of late.
Instead, as the year ends, there's suddenly buzz about a very different indie presidential run: one by former Democratic senator (and, briefly, 2016 presidential candidate) Jim Webb. The possibility makes some intuitive sense. Webb definitely seems to have the psychological profile of a cranky spoiler who can find fault with both parties, and even claim (as a former Reagan cabinet member and then Democratic senator) to represent both parties' best impulses. The talk from Team Webb seems to regard Ralph Nader's 2000 campaign as a model, which means its goal would be attention and leverage, not some remote chance of victory. Ballot access has gotten easier since 2000. And depending on what happens in the 2016 primaries, there could be a pool of disgruntled partisans that, in combination with disgruntled independents, could in theory lift a third option like Webb from nuisance to threat.
currently expected dispatching Bernie Sanders and has to rely on extra help from the DNC and other party elites in doing so. And let's say Donald Trump's support doesn't just melt away, but that instead his candidacy is defeated by a vicious and massively financed negative ad campaign from a pan-GOP coalition. You could at least imagine a Webb candidacy focused on HRC's support for military interventions and past alliances with Wall Street tapping some former Sanders and Trump voters. And if either Sanders or Trump actually wins his party's nomination, any pre-positioned indie candidate could suddenly inherit a lot of support.
Now, either scenario for a Webb boomlet has a lot of logical gaps. Democratic voters show every sign of uniting behind either Clinton or Sanders. For all his self-projection as a tribune of downscale white folks (especially the Scots-Irish Appalachian people), Webb's appeal to Trump's white working-class following is entirely theoretical. Yes, he's been warier of comprehensive immigration reform than most Democrats, but it's hard to imagine him embracing Trump's deport-'em-all stance or his Islamophobia. And talk aside, Jim Webb has run exactly one political race in his life, and in narrowly winning a Senate seat in Virginia in 2006, he didn't do any better among white mountain folk than urban civil-rights lawyer Tim Kaine a year earlier — which is to say not well at all. His stubborn Confederate nostalgia has probably cost him what little chance he had to appeal to African-Americans. And given his hostility to free-trade agreements and his lack of passion for deficit reduction, Webb's an unlikely champion for the elite "centrists" of the Simpson-Bowles variety, or for the small if legendary cadre of true independents in the electorate.
What makes a possible Webb indie run (or even a sustained threat of one) relevant is the fear it strikes in the hearts of Democrats who remember 2000 and Nader's role in taking enough votes from Al Gore in Florida to make it possible for George W. Bush and the U.S. Supreme Court to pull off a bit of a coup. Even if he is a nonentity nationally, Webb presumably retains enough juice in Virginia to tilt that battleground state in a very close two-party race. But while some Democrats to this day believe in retrospect that Gore could have won by tilting a bit "left" and robbing Nader of a rationale for candidacy, it's not clear at all what a Democratic nominee could do to deal with a Webb indie candidacy other than to ignore it. Emulating his eccentric positioning — to the "left," in conventional terms, on foreign policy, and to the "right" on issues like affirmative action — just isn't in the cards for Hillary Clinton, who seems to have decided some time ago to cozy up to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders on domestic matters while depicting herself as "tougher" and more intervention-minded than Barack Obama on foreign policy. And beyond that, there's always the chance Webb would eventually pull more votes from Republicans disgruntled for one reason or another with their party's nominee.
In any event, Webb, always a diffident vote-chaser, will likely give an indie race a pass. But the year-end discussion he's spurred is a reminder that there's no guarantee at all that the political convulsions of 2015 will give way to a placid and predictable 2016.
Don't be surprised if Jim Webb enters the race as an indie, particularly if Donald Trump is the gop nominee.
If Trump is not the Republican candidate, the Democrats don’t need a 3rd party; they will win again in a war of attrition because so many people will stay home and not vote.
If Trump is the Republican candidate, the Democrat machine of ballot-management, crime and fraud will destroy him. The damage will also continue down-ticket.
Donald Trump would be a disastrous candidate. Pure and simple. You want Hillary and a Democrat Senate? Nominate Trump.
Webb has no base of support. He’ll get less votes than John Anderson.
Not just VA, but NC! Talk about giving Trump a lock on the South from VA into MO & OK down to TX. All 'use gotta doose at that point is win OH, baby.
I think Webb is the very last of the old fashioned Democrats. He is more conservative than most Republicans currently in Congress. As a Democrat, he has a lot of flaws, but he is nowhere near as rabid as Obama, Clinton, Sanders, etc.
He has no name recognition so a third party bid would go nowhere and take nothing from any other candidates.
I have thought for a while that Trump would choose Webb as his VP if Trump wins the nomination. It would be a 50 state sweep. The Democrats hate Hillary and Sanders has only the far left base. This ticket gives Democrats and GOPe something to support.
Cruz folks, such as myself, would just stay home. The only true advantage to this ticket is the current two party system would be destroyed as they merged into the uniparty they currently are.
“Webb has no base of support. He’ll get less votes than John Anderson.”
He’d be the the go to candidate for the gop-e. There is a certain percent of folks who will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. In the end, the rats will rally around her thighness. Let’s say she gets 45%. If the indie gets 11%, she wins. Of course the electoral college complicates things, but it’s not too far outside the realm of reality to see an indie candidate get above 10%. Even John Anderson got 5%.
We saw this in VA. It was an effective strategy.
New years rubbish!
If the Trump is the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, her strongest support will come from moderate Republicans.
El Jebito will be the Independent candidate, splitting the pubbie vote.
ZERO chance of there being any effective run from the left.
The Dem Machine will take care of that.
For them, it’s coronation time.
“And let’s say Donald Trump’s support doesn’t just melt away, but that instead his candidacy is defeated by a vicious and massively financed negative ad campaign from a pan-GOP coalition.”
So there’s no possible third alternative to the above, right Ed? Which means Ed Kilgore is certain Donald Trump can’t possibly be the GOP nominee. Looks like Ed is afflicted with a case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, a form of delusional reality denial.
“her strongest support will come from moderate Republicans.”
Why? Because Trump is too conservative or too liberal?
The only way that "machine" would stand down is if the Dems faced a limp establishment candidate like Jeb. Anyone with an actual chance of winning will be targeted with their maximum effort.
Because Trump is too conservative then. My only quibble with your statements then is that I wouldn’t label those Pubs as “moderate”: RINOs (and worse) would be more accurate labels.
And Trump isn't "too conservative," either. He's nothing except all over the map on any given issue. He has no political principles and operates for his own self interest. Most of his support comes from people who like him for what he is not (a career politician) than for what he is (a businessman and entertainer).
There's nothing wrong with that, but let's not overestimate what he represents. I suspect most people who vote for Donald Trump in an election would be perfectly comfortable voting for Ronald McDonald, too.
I just don’t get why freepers spend so much energy attacking the Demorat opposition. Why not spend time attacking the Muslim pigs and the RAT party. Attack the enemy, not your own squad members. I grant you that demorats masquerading as republicans should be attacked like other demonrats.
fewer
“Cruz folks, such as myself, would just stay home.”
I’m sorry but this is the most stupid, juvenile mindset.
It’s the, “My guy’s not at the top of the ticket so I’m not going to vote for congressmen or senators or AGs or state legislatures or mayors or ballot initiatives cuz my guy isn’t there. Wah wah wah!”
Good grief. Write someone in. Vote third party or skip that line. Or go ahead and stay home and hold your breath and whine later about all the changes in your state because you didn’t vote down your local bonehead ballot initiatives.
So short sighted. I have no patience for this stupidity today. Go 3rd party or leave the line blank. Hello?
No question about it. No other candidate can win back the White and Reagan Democrat vote. The White vote is ALL that matters in 2016, as it did in 2012 with a GOP that didn't get it, and made no effort to seek it.
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