Posted on 09/24/2015 6:43:45 AM PDT by Kaslin
I liked Scott Walker, I really did. I still do. His record of accomplishment as governor of Wisconsin is unrivaled, both by his fellow governors and by its success. That being said, he was a horrible presidential candidate.
Still, Walker dropping out of the race so early came as a shock to the political world. He’d been the frontrunner most of the spring and summer. But once he started to slide, as all early frontrunners do, he seemed lost as to how to stop it.
The Walker campaign had a lot of problems, and every one of them was self-inflicted. A lot of pundits say the emergence of Donald Trump killed the Walker campaign. It did not. Scott Walker’s campaign failed because he, like many before him, drew his line in Iowa.
Iowa has a lot of allure for Republican presidential hopefuls. It goes first and starting strong “feels” like the right way to win. It’s rural, so a limited government appeal will work with people who simply want to be left alone by Washington. It’s a caucus, so you need dedicated supporters willing to put in some time to have their votes count.
The last point is true, but it costs a lot of money, which helped kill Walker. The first two couldn’t be more wrong.
Iowa is the fool’s gold of Republican politics.
Winning the Iowa caucus is not the key to winning the Republican nomination. Since 1980, the Iowa caucus has been an abysmal predictor of who the eventual GOP nominee will be. The only Republican candidates who were not running unopposed to win the caucus and the nomination are Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000. Every other “winner” went on to lose the nomination.
George H. W. Bush beat Ronald Reagan in 1980, and Bob Dole beat George H. W. Bush in 1988. Reagan won in 1984, Bush the elder in 1992, and Bush the younger in 2004, but all were unopposed and incumbents.
Remember President Mike Huckabee’s tenure in the White House? How about President Rick Santorum? They won Iowa in 2008 and 2012, respectively, and lost the nomination. Dole at least won the caucus and the nomination in his 1996 try but was beaten soundly in the general election.
Iowa is the race you don’t want to win. It may seem like a sprint, like you have to hit the ground running. But this isn’t a 100-yard dash; it’s a marathon. The fastest person off the starting line is rarely the first one across the finish line.
What Iowa should be is a place for candidates to get their sea legs and get used to the scrutiny that comes with campaigning on a bigger stage than they’ve ever been on before. It helps weed out candidates but usually only candidates who decree Iowa their “make or break” state. Walker did just that.
All the time and money Walker spent in Iowa was wasted. Not just because he’s now out of the race, but because it wouldn’t have mattered.
Iowa voters, as history shows, are not indicative of Republican voters throughout the rest of the country. They like subsidies. No, they LOVE subsidies. If you don’t support tax dollars for ethanol forget it.
That doesn’t sell with conservatives outside of Iowa. Candidates are left with a political dilemma – sell out conservative principles to appeal to voters in a state you probably won’t win in the general election, or tell a bunch of Americans you want to derail their gravy train and ensure you won’t win the state in the general. They can’t win, and they shouldn’t play.
Scott Walker put all his eggs in the Iowa basket.
Where Iowa fails, New Hampshire succeeds. Although not a perfect indicator, the Granite State picked non-incumbents Reagan in ’80, Bush in ’88, McCain in ’08, and Romney in ’12. Winning Iowa doesn’t help win anything else; winning New Hampshire, or even performing well, does.
Walker’s campaign spent a lot of time and money in Iowa, appealing to Iowans on issues Iowans care about. Although there is a Venn diagram overlap in what Iowa caucus goers and the following primary state voters care about, it’s a small group. By focusing on Iowa, Walker ignored the rest of the country. The rest of the country noticed…or, more precisely, didn’t notice Scott Walker.
Then, as always happens, Iowans noticed someone else, Walker’s support dried up, the basket was gone. And now, so is Scott Walker.
The shiny appeal of Iowa now will set about seducing its next mistress, who will spend a lot of time and money trying to seduce caucus goers – and perhaps will. If you have a favorite candidate left in the race, you’d better hope he or she can resist the allure of that fool’s gold.
I agree with this. NEw Hampshire, actually, the primaries AFTER NH or the important ones.
IOwa is meaningless. REagan lost NH, then came roaring back in SC and beyond.
I think Carson will win Iowa, but that’s it.
HEY! Somebody in Washington noticed what we have known about for years!
The RINO political consultants get money for ... “consulting” and running campaigns. Not for winning elections.
I kept saying (and was criticized for doing so) that Walker played "small ball." By that I meant, he was running on the record of a small, midwestern state gov. It was a great record, but isn't "that vision thing." While it may seem trite, Trump's "Wall" is one of the biggest vision concepts put forward in recent years. It's not JUST the wall---it's all that goes with it. But the wall is an incredible symbol that others seemed unwilling to grasp and make work.
Let me show how this has hurt Cruz: in the first debate, when he finally had time to talk, Cruz (and all other senators) kept saying, "I introduced legislation." Well, sorry. What did you DO? What did you ACHIEVE? Because, to millions of Americans, "introducing a bill" is a) part of the problem, and b) "more of the same." "Nothing ever gets done." I know he meant well, and I know he was playing by the rules, but Trump has shown there are NEW RULES and new expectations. Having state programs in Wisconsin and introducing bills are not going to be fast enough to save us from the utter destruction Zero and his henchmen have imposed on the USA. It's going to take much higher-level, radical measures.
This author hit SEVERAL nails right on the head! Iowa is a hypocrite of a state(Ethanol). It is a LIBERAL state painted with “conservative” paint. Scratch the veneer off and Iowa is just a festering and liberal and screwed up as liberal Minnesota and liberal Missouri.
1988 is a poster year for the relevance of Iowa. Dukakis carried the state by more than 10 points while losing 40 other states and 426 electoral votes. You can look it up.
Meh.
Walker relied on the Iowa GOP establishment like Gov. Branstad and Sen. Ernst instead of campaigning in person. His dropping out has zero to do with anything Iowa.
Either he was a GOP-E stealth candidate who was told to drop out, or he’s a conservative following FR advice and opting out early because he realized he wasn’t the strongest candidate.
While it may seem trite, Trump’s “Wall” is one of the biggest vision concepts put forward in recent years. It’s not JUST the wall-—it’s all that goes with it. But the wall is an incredible symbol that others seemed unwilling to grasp and make work.
Walker’s biggest problem was his waffling on the illegal alien inundation.
He couldn’t make up his mind to be solidly on the side of the citizens and the rule of law.
I suspect his donors and friends (Preibus and Ryan) had alot to do with that.
.... introducing bills are not going to be fast enough to save us from the utter destruction Zero and his henchmen have imposed on the USA. It’s going to take much higher-level, radical measures.
***********************************
It’s going to take a “big” person who’s willing to stomp on the status quo and “break things” (bull in china shop) & not be worried about who will be ‘angry’ when Obama’s destructive policies/laws are reversed or gutted. I like Cruz ... I really do, but my gut tells me he’s too polite & will play within the usual ‘rules’. None of the other candidates are even close .... will be same ‘ol, same ‘ol & Obama’s “legacy”, domestic & foreign will end up set in stone. I believe Trump has the right mindset (like going big with the wall) to turn things around ... will he or can he actually do it remains to be seen. Considering the radical Leftist Obama & what he’s done, I’m willing to take a chance on someone who will be more “radical” than bought/paid for politicians ... just hope he heads to the Right with a vengeance.
And Trump is on the verge of killing the golden goose. GOPe consultants are in the fight of their lives. What’s at stake for them? Private schools for their kids, country club memberships, trophy wives, everything except what’s good for the country.
My thought exactly, and he was my guy going in. But too polite and play by the rules is exactly the problem. Someone is going to have to not just step on toes on both sides, but break some kneecaps. Tanya Harding, where are you?
I think you are 100% correct.
That's been the bottom line in Iowa since at least 1992.
And they are paid by how much they spend, not how effective is their organizing. Hence, they blow big bucks on TV advertising because it's quick and easy with a fat check.
Empty promises. Anybody with functioning brain cells knows that building said wall starts with "introduce a bill," with the next step beating a string of MALDeF or Sierra Club lawsuits as soon as the President's ink is dry. Said bill had best put the jurisdiction over the fence outside the realm of the Federal courts as a matter of national defense or Trump's WALL isn't going anywhere for years.
I hope whoever is debating Trump drops this on him, because it will show how shallow he really is. Great at marketing, but unlike a corporation, a President does not enjoy the powers of a CEO.
He’s young, this just was not the year for him. Nor will it be for all but one, it’s just a matter of timing and how much of other people’s money they pizz away on campaigning before they follow the Kenny Rogers Rule (”know when to fold ‘em”).
Look at it this way, if conservativism is about conserving resources and focusing on the right and proper priorities (of government) then Scott Walker is a poster child.
Bingo!
He was the best candidate we've had since Regan on economic issues, but he supports amnesty and no amount of rhetorical couching could hide it. Republican voters can smell an amnesty supporter nowadays.
But the complication of legislation is NOT election material unfortunately. And furthermore Trump instills a belief that HE will make it happen. Americans are tired of “CAN’T” and roadblocks....and who knows....
So they're ripe for a pack of lies, meaning that conservatives falling for them are just as credulous as those who fell for Commander Xero. This has been one very disappointing ride for me. See tag line.
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