Posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123
Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.”
Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the polls now, mid-September didn’t win the nomination, didn’t even come close. So, if you look four years ago, Rick Perry was in the midst of a surge right now, and eight years ago on the Democratic side, you had Howard Dean — or 12 years ago, rather, Howard Dean was surging, Hillary Clinton was still way ahead of Barack Obama in 2008. Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls in 2008. I think people — there’s so much interest in this election, in this campaign, people forget that polls five months before Iowa, historically, have told you very, very little.”
-snip-
Silver added that an establishment candidate was “probably” going to be the nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
OK.
Cruz it is!
Wasn’t Nate Silver the one who nailed it - right down to the winning percentage - when he called the Obama/Romney race results?
I’d say he knows very little. He must be a Jebby supporter.
OTOH, the GOPe is determined to lose.
Let’s see ,,,,,, my next guess is Lindsey ,,,, right Nate ???
Will all the serious issues facing the country, this will not be a “typical” election cycle.
Whew! Now that that’s settled I can go back to sleep.
He's bad at sports predictions, but amazingly accurate at political ones.
Something here about stopped clocks being right twice a day. This jerk got lucky once so how he’s touted as some sage. BS!
Actually, I think Nate Silver is a Democrat.
Agreed. Cruz it is, then. :-)
But those were traditional elections. This one is anything but traditional.
I think that is why all of the pundits can’t believe what is happening. It goes against everything they have always known about elections and the electorate.
Nate Silver was fed internal poll numbers from David Axelrod for Obama/Romney.
His most recent predictions (without help) have been failures.
Perry and Gulliani were not pulling down crowds of 20,000 to 30,000 in stadiums. All major channels were not carrying their speeches in entirety every other day. So Nate give it a break. LOL!
Well then, he’s definitely hoping Jebby will get nominated.
He knows how much a Bush name is political poison.
You can write the campaign ads right now.
After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, in 2009 Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.[5]
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2012_U.S._elections
You'll see this situation is unprecedented, so history can provide no insight.
Nate is out to lunch. I’d give Carson 5%, but Trump is at 50%. !Yeb! is at 2%
An establishment candidate?
15 or 16 of the 18 can be called establishment.
Nate’s really sticking his neck out!
LOL!
Silver did not do that well in the 2014 midterms.
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