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Trump Now Out-polling Jeb 8-1 in Iowa (New Gravis Poll Trump-31.7% Carson-15.8% Bush-4.1%)
breitbart.com ^ | Howie Carr

Posted on 09/01/2015 11:50:37 AM PDT by RoosterRedux

Donald Trump is maintaining a commanding 2-1 lead in the latest poll of GOP caucus goers in Iowa, and his only rival in double digits is another political novice, Dr. Ben Carson.

Former frontrunner FL Gov. Jeb Bush has tumbled into eighth place despite his $100-million bankroll.

In a Gravis Marketing poll of 507 Iowa Republicans conducted last Friday and Saturday, Trump has 31.7 percent to Carson’s 15.8 and Bush’s 4.1 percent. A Monmouth University poll released yesterday had showed Trump and Carson running neck and neck with 23 percent – much to the excitement of the GOP establishment, including Fox News Channel.

But today’s Gravis poll seems more in line with other recent surveys in the Hawkeye State, where the first caucuses of 2016 will be held five months from today on Feb. 1.

Trump is dominant across almost all demographic groups, leading Carson and Cruz among Hispanics with 29 percent. He also won a plurality among GOP voters who described themselves as both pro-life and pro-choice, those in the 18-49 age group, and Republicans declaring themselves moderate or “slightly liberal.”

Among Roman Catholics in Iowa, the Presbyterian Trump polls 40 percent to 11 percent for Carson. Bush, a Catholic convert who often claims to be guided by his faith, polled at 0.8 percent among his coreligionists.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Iowa; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; election2016; iowa; newyork; trump
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To: hoosiermama

Interesting about Univision and Fiorina!

Carly can dominate the entire “lower tier” debate and focus her attacks on Trump, unchallenged. The same way she did the first debate.

It is part of the GOPe strategy against Trump. Wish conservative treehouse guy would write an article about Carly and the “lower tier” debate.


101 posted on 09/01/2015 1:08:39 PM PDT by Sontagged (Woe to you when all men shall speak well of you...)
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To: Sontagged; theoldmarine; All
Wait a rock-pickin' minute. Before we get too outraged, I just read through the Monmouth poll everybody's in a twist about. I see NOTHING that shows that they combined choice #1 with choice #2. I see Carson and Trump tied as the FIRST choice. And Carson even with a two point lead as the SECOND choice. Cruz leads the "second choices" with 13% by the way.

I want to call out the media for lies as much as the next person, but I don't see any evidence here that supports that choices #1 and #2 were combined. I hope you can point me somewhere that shows that they were.
102 posted on 09/01/2015 1:09:20 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: RoosterRedux

I found the same thing as you. No evidence of the manipulation that was alleged.


103 posted on 09/01/2015 1:10:36 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: mmichaels1970

Thx.


104 posted on 09/01/2015 1:15:40 PM PDT by RoosterRedux (First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi)
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To: hoosiermama

See post #102.


105 posted on 09/01/2015 1:17:32 PM PDT by RoosterRedux (First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi)
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To: theoldmarine; RoosterRedux; mmichaels1970

Hey old marine, how did you come up with your breakdown for the Monmouth poll?


106 posted on 09/01/2015 1:20:04 PM PDT by Sontagged (Woe to you when all men shall speak well of you...)
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To: mmichaels1970; RoosterRedux; hoosiermama

So how to account for the discrepancies in Trump’s Iowa numbers?


107 posted on 09/01/2015 1:21:33 PM PDT by Sontagged (Woe to you when all men shall speak well of you...)
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To: Patton@Bastogne

And that helps Cruz/hurts Trump how?


108 posted on 09/01/2015 1:22:49 PM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject")
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To: RoosterRedux

I’ll feel better when its Jebbie at 0 percent.


109 posted on 09/01/2015 1:23:20 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
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To: Lazamataz

Gotcha. Thanks.


110 posted on 09/01/2015 1:23:47 PM PDT by skippyjonjones
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To: Sontagged
So how to account for the discrepancies in Trump’s Iowa numbers?

No idea. I would just use surrounding polls to determine if it's an outlier or some sort of movement that nobody saw coming. I'd lean towards outlier, but I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, so I defer the smart people here.
111 posted on 09/01/2015 1:25:01 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Sontagged; MinuteGal; onyx; hoosiermama; DoughtyOne; Jane Long

I knew that 23-23 tie poll Trump/Carson was a crock.


112 posted on 09/01/2015 1:26:08 PM PDT by flaglady47 (TRUMP ROCKS)
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To: flaglady47

Yes, you did!! You posted so!!

You were right!!


113 posted on 09/01/2015 1:27:30 PM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: mmichaels1970

Waiting for “theoldmarine” to ‘splain himself.

His post was a big lie unless he can explain to us how he came up with that formula.

And if he can’t explain himself, he’s leading the new GOPe Troll charge against Trump.

Whatever, the discrepancies in the polls are evidence enough that the Rove GOPe is busy playing around with poll numbers to trick the electorate and to keep Trump out.


114 posted on 09/01/2015 1:28:39 PM PDT by Sontagged (Woe to you when all men shall speak well of you...)
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To: flaglady47; Jane Long

See my link at #102. Poll may still be a crock, but I get the feeling the “combined first and second choice” theory is debunked by reading through the poll itself.


115 posted on 09/01/2015 1:29:08 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: RoosterRedux

I knew there was something wrong with that Monmouth poll yesterday. No way Carson is neck and neck with Trump.


116 posted on 09/01/2015 1:31:11 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: mmichaels1970; RoosterRedux; Black Agnes; hoosiermama; batch; 2ndDivisionVet

If “theoldmarine” is a GOPe troll, it wouldn’t be the first time the Rove GOPe uses situations like this to take our attention off the fact: Trump is winning ... to the vagaries of poll taking and possible manipulation.

Trump is winning and the MSM/GOPe is freaking.


117 posted on 09/01/2015 1:32:08 PM PDT by Sontagged (Woe to you when all men shall speak well of you...)
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To: Sontagged; All; theoldmarine
Meh I wouldn't say lying...Maybe the confusion is with the Bloomberg poll that came out a day or two before? That one reads: Ben Carson Edging Close to Front-Runner Trump in Latest Iowa Poll. When I started digging for the Monmouth internals, this one popped to the top of my search engine and threw me off for a bit.


118 posted on 09/01/2015 1:34:06 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Sontagged

Diggerent people supplying the list to poll.
Sometimes the % is based on registered voters in past primary
In our county it is not uncommon for one party to have three candidates for sheriff while other has only one. Since we can chose either ballot many chose the party with most candidates as they wanted or didn’t want a person running. But it throws the polling population off


119 posted on 09/01/2015 1:34:43 PM PDT by hoosiermama ( Read my lips: no more Bushes)
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To: flaglady47

Something is a bit strange about it. The numbers are so vastly different than every other poll, that it kind of tosses the poll into doubt.

We’ll have to wait and see what other polls look like. If they can find support for this, there will be lots of polls to make sure Carson is trumpeted for his strength.

Once Trump is damaged, watch Carson drop like a rock. Job done. I’m not attributing that to him, but rather the press and other special interest groups.

Sounds like someone has been gaming the situation.


120 posted on 09/01/2015 1:37:34 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.)
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