Trump Now Out-polling Jeb 8-1 in Iowa (New Gravis Poll Trump-31.7% Carson-15.8% Bush-4.1%)

breitbart.com ^ | Howie Carr

[Sontagged]

Interesting about Univision and Fiorina!

Carly can dominate the entire “lower tier” debate and focus her attacks on Trump, unchallenged. The same way she did the first debate.

It is part of the GOPe strategy against Trump. Wish conservative treehouse guy would write an article about Carly and the “lower tier” debate.

[mmichaels1970]

Wait a rock-pickin' minute. Before we get too outraged, I just read through the Monmouth poll everybody's in a twist about. I see NOTHING that shows that they combined choice #1 with choice #2. I see Carson and Trump tied as the FIRST choice. And Carson even with a two point lead as the SECOND choice. Cruz leads the "second choices" with 13% by the way.

I want to call out the media for lies as much as the next person, but I don't see any evidence here that supports that choices #1 and #2 were combined. I hope you can point me somewhere that shows that they were.

[mmichaels1970]

I found the same thing as you. No evidence of the manipulation that was alleged.

[RoosterRedux]

Thx.

[RoosterRedux]

See post #102.

[Sontagged]

Hey old marine, how did you come up with your breakdown for the Monmouth poll?

[Sontagged]

So how to account for the discrepancies in Trump’s Iowa numbers?

[ripnbang]

And that helps Cruz/hurts Trump how?

[Theodore R.]

I’ll feel better when its Jebbie at 0 percent.

[skippyjonjones]

Gotcha. Thanks.

[mmichaels1970]

So how to account for the discrepancies in Trump’s Iowa numbers?

No idea. I would just use surrounding polls to determine if it's an outlier or some sort of movement that nobody saw coming. I'd lean towards outlier, but I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, so I defer the smart people here.

[flaglady47]

I knew that 23-23 tie poll Trump/Carson was a crock.

[Jane Long]

Yes, you did!! You posted so!!

You were right!!

[Sontagged]

Waiting for “theoldmarine” to ‘splain himself.

His post was a big lie unless he can explain to us how he came up with that formula.

And if he can’t explain himself, he’s leading the new GOPe Troll charge against Trump.

Whatever, the discrepancies in the polls are evidence enough that the Rove GOPe is busy playing around with poll numbers to trick the electorate and to keep Trump out.

[mmichaels1970]

See my link at #102. Poll may still be a crock, but I get the feeling the “combined first and second choice” theory is debunked by reading through the poll itself.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I knew there was something wrong with that Monmouth poll yesterday. No way Carson is neck and neck with Trump.

[Sontagged]

If “theoldmarine” is a GOPe troll, it wouldn’t be the first time the Rove GOPe uses situations like this to take our attention off the fact: Trump is winning ... to the vagaries of poll taking and possible manipulation.

Trump is winning and the MSM/GOPe is freaking.

[mmichaels1970]

Meh I wouldn't say lying...Maybe the confusion is with the Bloomberg poll that came out a day or two before? That one reads: Ben Carson Edging Close to Front-Runner Trump in Latest Iowa Poll. When I started digging for the Monmouth internals, this one popped to the top of my search engine and threw me off for a bit.

[hoosiermama]

Diggerent people supplying the list to poll.
Sometimes the % is based on registered voters in past primary
In our county it is not uncommon for one party to have three candidates for sheriff while other has only one. Since we can chose either ballot many chose the party with most candidates as they wanted or didn’t want a person running. But it throws the polling population off

[DoughtyOne]

Something is a bit strange about it. The numbers are so vastly different than every other poll, that it kind of tosses the poll into doubt.

We’ll have to wait and see what other polls look like. If they can find support for this, there will be lots of polls to make sure Carson is trumpeted for his strength.

Once Trump is damaged, watch Carson drop like a rock. Job done. I’m not attributing that to him, but rather the press and other special interest groups.

Sounds like someone has been gaming the situation.