Posted on 09/01/2015 6:26:50 AM PDT by Kaslin
In my last column, I looked at the possibility of two impossible things -- impossible things in the sense used by Alice and the Red Queen -- happening in the already turbulent 2016 presidential cycle. Here I'll look at another: the possibility that the partisan division lines that have endured with little change for two decades might suddenly shift and change.
This has happened before. History teaches two lessons pointing in opposite directions: Partisan divisions can stay the same for a long time. And they can change suddenly and without much warning.
There's no question that partisan divisions have shifted little in recent years. Consider the almost precisely identical popular vote percentages for Barack Obama in 2012 (51.01 percent) and those when you combine the 2000 vote for Al Gore and Ralph Nader (48.38 plus 2.74 for 51.12 percent). The Republican percentages in those elections were nearly identical, too: 47.15 percent for Mitt Romney and 47.87 percent for George W. Bush.
The circumstances were similar. Gore was incumbent vice president in an administration with positive job approval; Obama was the incumbent president whose approval reached 50 percent on Election Day. Under different circumstances, the Republican percentage rose a few points higher in 2004 and the Democratic percentage a few points higher in 2008.
Moreover, the national pattern was matched in most states. In 28 states and the District of Columbia the Obama 2012 and Gore/Nader percentages were within 1 or 2 percent (rounded off) of each other.
The biggest shifts were not, by the way, in California, Texas or Florida, despite large Hispanic immigrant influxes. They voted just 1 or 2 points differently in 2000 and 2012, and the same was true for the large states from New York and New Jersey westward to Illinois and Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
The biggest shift toward Democrats, 9 points, came in Obama's birthplace Hawaii, and in left-trending Vermont. The next biggest (at 5 points) were in Virginia and North Carolina, where the Obama campaign rallied high-education newcomers and larger-than-national-average black populations to the polls.
The biggest shift toward Republicans came in the Appalachian/Jacksonian belt --coal-rich West Virginia (12 points), Clinton's home in Arkansas (10 points) and Gore's in Tennessee (9 points), plus 5 point shifts in Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Also, Mitt Romney's home states of Massachusetts and Utah shifted 6 points Republican.
All of which suggests that the 2016 results should look somewhat similar. Neither party has won less than 46 percent or more than 53 percent nationally since 1984. Like economic forecasters, psephologists usually expect the next cycle to look like the last one.
But maybe not. Consider another extended period with even more turmoil during which the two parties' presidential percentages were almost identical at beginning and end: 1960 to 1976. John Kennedy got 49.72 percent of the popular vote, Jimmy Carter 50.08 percent.
Here again, despite the upheaval of the civil rights revolution, there was surprisingly little regional change. The Carter and Kennedy percentages were within 1 or 2 points in 22 states (D.C. didn't vote in 1960).
The biggest shifts toward Democrats were in Arkansas and Tennessee, where the young Clinton and Gore were on the ballot, and in Mississippi, thanks to enfranchisement of blacks by the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The biggest shifts toward Republicans were in Alaska and Utah.
Both 1976 nominees came from their parties' historic heartlands, the Upper Midwest and the Deep South. That helped Carter reassemble a Democratic coalition that looked much like Kennedy's, uniting Northern Catholics and Deep South whites, augmented with blacks. Gerald Ford, like Richard Nixon, carried affluent suburbs and California, even winning 49 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area.
But that 1960-1976 alignment quickly disappeared. Carter lost 12 of 14 Southern states to Ronald Reagan, and the South became bedrock Republican -- presidentially in 1984, congressionally in 1994. Affluent suburbs in million-plus Northern metropolitan areas moved toward Democrats in the 1990s. Mitt Romney got 24 percent in the Bay Area in 2012.
For 2016, Hillary Clinton is trying to re-assemble the Obama majority. Republican strategists are hoping to pluck enough 2012 target states to win. But events so far -- Clinton's slide, the Trump phenomenon -- may destabilize what have been enduring partisan preferences. And who knows what more turbulence is ahead?
Just about every election watcher (including me) has assumed that a new partisan alignment is an impossible thing. History tells us it is -- until it isn't.
Very well said
No matter who holds the reigns of big government, there will be cronyism. It is only human nature. Be they college professors or evangelical ministers, big government will corrupt all of them. My sorrow today is that all efforts on behalf of small government and free markets have been a complete failure. Even most conservatives today do not believe in them.
As long as blacks as a whole continue to live down on the gubment plantation, their alignment will not change.
When you see a black leader, gain national prominence and a following speaking the truth about being slaves to the government, you will see no realignment of the black vote, and like it or not, I see no one like that on the horizon anytime soon.
The Trump phenominon is really about one thing and one thing only: bullying.
People are tired of the Progressive bullying tactics and Trump is the only one who is, or at least capable of, standing up to it and fighting back.
Tie that bullying to the use of coercive state powers to oppress and suppress dissent, and you have a very powerful weapon for small-government Conservatism.
The open border, free market, NAFTA, NWO belief system is almost certainly going down the toilet (not just here, but everywhere around the globe)
The return of the “trust buster” is nearly certain too in my opinion. Any business that is “too big to fail” is by definition TOO BIG! I think we will see a return of this to the forefront of priorities.
I also think it's long overdue for conservative Blacks to come home to the Republican party, and I think they will be accompanied by legal Hispanics who dislike illegals even more than most whites.
Barone is trying to apply historical statistical analysis to a process out side the historic parameters. Numbers are the bread and butter on which he thrives
Party and normalcy are Trumped by disgust and disdain. The event is emotional enough to cause rational decision making to be cast aside. Voters are apparently climbing out of their ruts.
Most of the candidates rely on Baronian type analysis that is not meaningful in the Trump context
Funny that you mentioned that.. since I was thinking something very similar... that Trumps coalition (not so much Trump himself) reminds me most of... JFK’s base. Or basically, a 1950’s Democrat.
Meanwhile Democrats have finally taken off the mask and have gone full on socialist.
Whatever you are drinking, I want some.
Ain’t gonna happen. Blacks will remain solidly in the Democrat column at a rate of 85% plus.
Hispanics, if they identify as Hispanics, are likely to remain Democrat as well, but not in overwhelming numbers like blacks. More like 60%.
IMHO, Conservative “Hispanics” don’t really ID as Hispanic - they identify as American and White.
If you are the black carpenter who now can’t get a job because of all the illegal aliens, or a union autoworker who saw his job go to Mexico, you are ripe for a Republican like Trump who almost alone among the candidates sees your plight.
But if the Republican establishment is all you see, you know that their candidate(s) don’t give a damn about you. They work for the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street and the lobbyists with their bags of money.
It is not Trump who is losing voter blocs - it is the deceit coming from the GOPe that keeps these disenfranchised from voting Republican.
This may be the very reason that Ben Carson is #2 in almost every poll. I heard someone say, a Ben Carson supporter, “he is saying everything Trump is saying, just more quietly. He is a gentle soul.” He also glorifies God in almost every interview and speech, right now I am in his camp.
> Whatever you are drinking, I want some.
This is what I’m gleaning from Facebook posts, Youtube videos, posts online, pastors, personally speaking with them on the streets. Its just a personal observation, sort of like you know when there’s about to be a rain storm. You can smell it in the air and feel it coming.
> Considering the electoral demographics, if we just taxed stupidity, we could eliminate the national debt.
In California alone...: )
In a way you’re both right.
The most likely scenario is that over the next several cycles disaffected Blacks and Hispanics stay home on election day. They won’t cross over to vote GOP but will take action (inaction) that will benefit GOP candidates.
If the GOP can start consistantly running Conservative candidates who will appeal to them on economic bread and butter issues, those “passive aggressive” cycles will be a window of opportunity to slowly start pulling them over.
His 1%, 5%, 10%, 15% plan is a tax cut for almost everyone other than those that currently pay no taxes at all. It would destroy the tax preparer business.
Certainly for the likes os SS and Medicare.
I hope you are right!
Latinos love a “strong Man” who is seen as Honest—General Santa Ana was President of Mexico 11 times after all (once elected by a majority). It is logical that a strong man —like Trump would cause them to be impressed and support him. They see a strong man as a counter to corruption and the power of a few big, rich familes. How do you Corrupt Trump? Not with Money—he’s as rich as Uncle Scrooge. Threats? he can hire an army of security?
You let the cat out the bag. Shame on you!
But seriously, I think you're right.
Jesus Christ: You can’t impeach Him and He ain’t gonna resign.
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