Posted on 07/22/2015 1:21:07 PM PDT by Kaslin
For those of us who predicted the inevitable, watching Donald Trump verbally wander into a field of face-whacking garden rakes like Sideshow Bob fills one with a mixture of schadenfreude and affirmation. We knew it was coming, but it still feels good to be proven right.
Of course Trump wouldn't hesitate to attack John McCain's war-hero status. Trump's bottomless insecurity cannot countenance the idea that his critics have any legitimacy. Of course Trump won't apologize -- because his dog-and-pony show is predicated on the idea that he "tells it like it is" and "fights." He's the omniscient master of "The Apprentice." He can't behave like the Biggest Loser.
The Trump squall is not over, alas. But it's nonetheless obvious that we will someday soon look back on this as the beginning of the end of Trumpmania.
The reason his demise is all so predictable is that personality eventually shines through. A few politicians are capable of hiding their truly unpleasant personal qualities, but it takes enormous effort, and sooner or later the mask slips. In general, what you see is what you get in politics, which is why the most successful politicians have personalities suited for the profession: They are basically likable; they can and want to connect with voters; they can act natural because they are natural politicians.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, isn't even a politician. He's a low-rent carnival barker who made it big on the high-rent circuit. An honest political consultant would put his fees in jeopardy by giving it to him straight: "For the love of all that is holy, don't be yourself."
Back in the real campaign, there's an interesting lesson in Trump's ineluctable fate. For months I've argued that Jeb Bush is the weakest of the top-tier candidates to take on Hillary Rodham Clinton. When you have a competition between two brands, the better brand tends to win. The Clinton brand is simply much more popular than the Bush brand, for reasons we all know.
And that's still true. But a brand is also strongest in the abstract. A Clinton may beat a Bush, but voters won't be asked to vote for "a Clinton," they'll be asked to vote for a specific Clinton, namely Hillary. Jeb's last name is a problem he can transcend by being himself. Hillary's last name is an asset she damages whenever she's herself.
We saw something similar with John Kerry in 2004. People liked Kerry in the abstract -- military veteran, long-serving senator, etc. -- but as a person, not so much. His state poll numbers would often go down when he campaigned and go up when he went on vacation. Clinton is extremely popular when she is an abstraction. The polls show that the more voters see the real person, the less they like her -- or trust her.
She's still an obvious favorite for the nomination, but it's telling that the Clinton campaign is already trying to lower expectations for the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses, suggesting that Bernie Sanders might win some early bouts.
The point is that personality matters a lot, and no one would confuse Clinton's personality as a secret weapon. It's been a cliche for three decades for Clinton's defenders to say, "If only you could know the Hillary I know." That's an unintentionally damning defense. It may be true that she's a wonderful friend to her friends, but as a candidate, she is a remarkably uninspiring, un-charming and un-compelling woman who has every bit as much of a problem connecting to ordinary people as Mitt Romney did. Indeed, like Romney, she has polled poorly (June, CNN) on the question of whether she "cares about people like you."
In truth, Bush is not a contender for the role of "the Most Interesting Man in the World" in those Dos Equis commercials either. But he is showing himself to be a grown-up who is neither easily rattled nor interested in pandering to the crowd. He can get ahead of his family name in a way Clinton clearly cannot. Moreover, nearly all of the other GOP contenders have transparently better retail political skills than Clinton.
Donald Trump stakes much of his fortune on the alleged value of the Trump brand. Hillary Clinton's candidacy rests on a similar assumption about the Clinton name. Both fail to take into account the fact that personality trumps brand.
Trump isn’t a Side show Barker (a hard job really—I know—I have done it) He’s more like the owner of the Circus. Hes not side show Bob, he’s P.T. Barnum. His snake oil sells in a nation starved for leadership.
Jonah must be trying to start a brush fire — hoping that somebody believes this pack of lies and half truths and omissions. A clear case of media lying and I’m surprised that Townhall published it.
Weather bloggers and ‘reporters’ do a whole lot of wishcasting when making up projections of storms. I think Jonah's following along with the media's version of it.
Trump should send a pair of pants
So people who want a secure border and a stop to illegal aliens coming in really are crazies, Jonah? Take a hike!
For Pete’s sake, Trump has been around longer than dirt and his personality has never varied. I’m sorry, I couldn’t read Goldberg’s screed past that point.
True Jonah, but here is the flaw in your reasoning. Your buddies in the MSM tried to annihilate the political aspirations of Mr. Trump from the get-go, along with other corporations. It is the overlords of print who want to narrate the election process. A "basically likable" politician does not stand a chance against the gatekeepers of gaffes, glory and gall. In a fair and balanced world, such a man would come out ahead.
The Trumpster ignored that. He has the staying power to boot. He has defied the establishment order and actually talked about a few things that us commoners want addressed as a government, as a nation.
I see what you did there.
Trump has some great lessons for the GOP, but, sadly, they are unlikely to adopt them.
First, a ‘Pubbie should NEVER apologize if he “offends” someone. In fact, if the facts are with him, a ‘Pubbie should double down and hit back as hard as he can, showing no mercy or pity. Republicans who apologize for anything are subsequently torn apart in the media.
Second, there are popular issues, like illegal immigration, that the GOP should take up, no matter what some of their “big money” donors want. Money is a means to an end, and that money won’t do a bit of good if your base decides to stay home.
Third, “Racism” and all of its spin-offs like “White Privilege,” “Microagression,” and “BlackLivesMatter” are only issues with folks who are not going to vote Republican any way. Don’t waste time addressing it. Don’t waste time going for votes in those groups that belong heart and soul to the Democrats.
That is an excellent point
I find this article quite shocking.
I didn’t know Hillary HAD a personality.
Don’t get so upset. While they make Trump the subject, rather than what he said, they help keep him in the spotlight. They’re giving him all sorts of free campaign advertising that’s perfectly legal.
*rme* What an imbecile comment noobee
I heard something today while walking past a TV that had Morning Joe on... one of their regulars from Politico or something of the like was saying they believe Trump is a joke and they are simply not going to cover him anymore! He’s leading in the polls and they are not going to cover him — they must we worried he’s not going to implode...
Very good post. So true!
“Did anybody really think Jeb was just too much of an unpredictable wild man?”
Jeb hasn’t got a snowball’s chance in hell of getting elected. His name is Bush which is an instant disqualifier. The next thing is the mantra that he stole the 2000 election for brother and lastly, he is a convert to the Roman Catholic faith which is still a no no in many parts of this country. All the hand-wringing is just a waste of time and energy.
Those grapes must be really really sour.
and the current Marxist Pope isn't helping him any.
Bush loving again eh Jonah?
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