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Can Ted Cruz's hawkish populism actually win? ("There isn't really a natural Cruz constituency")
Vox ^ | April 30, 2015 | Zack Beauchamp

Posted on 04/30/2015 1:59:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The Republican foreign policy debate usually gets described as a divide between Rand Paul and ... basically everyone else. But Ted Cruz wants to change that, positioning himself as a sort of "third way" between Paul's non-interventionism and Bush-style neoconservatism. Cruz's approach seems like it should be popular, but it also illustrates one of the central problems in his candidacy: there isn't really a natural Cruz constituency.

Cruz's position on the use of force is hawkish: he wants the US to be far more aggressive than the Obama administration has been when facing threats. But he's also skeptical of nation building and democracy promotion; he's less comfortable with campaigns to topple authoritarian regimes in places like Syria than some other members of his party. He broke his view down into three principles in a Tuesday Daily Caller interview:

1 Any intervention "should begin with a clearly stated objective at the outset. It should be directly tied to US national security."

2 "We should use overwhelming force to that objective. We should not have rules of engagement that tie the hands of our soldiers and sailors and airmen and Marines."

3 "Third, we should get the heck out ... It is not the job of the US military to engage in nation building to turn foreign countries into democratic utopias."

Basically, the US should hit its own enemies hard and not worry all that much about dealing with the consequences for the locals.

It's an argument finely calibrated to today's Republican party. Cruz's instinctive hawkishness fits with the base's mood, which has become increasingly enamored of American military interventions since the ISIS crisis began. However, there's also not a whole lot of public appetite for another massive investment of US lives and resources in another extended foreign war. Clearly opposing one, even when it's unlikely, is a safe way to differentiate yourself from more conventional neoconservatives.

You can see echoes of this in some prominent Republican foreign policy figures, like former UN Ambassador John Bolton (who Cruz says is one of three foreign policy figures he trusts most). In a smart column, the Washington Examiner's Phil Klein argues it's more likely to catch on in the GOP than Rand Paul's non-interventionism.

But Cruz's foreign policy position also reflects a central problem with his candidacy: his profound isolation inside the party.

There isn't really a major organized movement that likes Cruz's position. More conventional neoconservatives, like Marco Rubio, are vying for support from the vast bulk of the conservative foreign policy apparatus. Paul appeals to a dissident libertarian-conservative movement — one that has its own intellectual tradition and turned out in large numbers for his father, Congressman Ron Paul.

There isn't, by contrast, a natural home for Cruz's position. The fact that it might be base-friendly isn't enough: at this stage in the primary, it's more important to garner support from elites and institutions that are willing to work for you than to propose positions that poll well. Say what you will about Paul's libertarians being marginalized in the GOP, but at least they're an organized movement.

Cruz's ideas might be able to eventually shape the Republican foreign policy debate, as Klein suggests. But barring a Cruz victory in the primary, that'd probably take a concerted effort to push them on his part over the course of years. In the short term, he doesn't actually get a lot out of advocating for them.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; conservatives; election2016; paultardation; paultardnoisemachine; randpaul; randpaulnoisemachine; randsconcerntrolls; tedcruz; texas; zackbeauchamp
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

As my great-grandfather Horatio Vernon Salter Storrs III used to say, when they attack like rabid, meth-addled homo tranny lobotomized epinephrine-tweaked chipmunks, you know you got a winner.


21 posted on 04/30/2015 2:24:51 PM PDT by golux
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Kale; Jarhead9297; COUNTrecount; notaliberal; DoughtyOne; MountainDad; ...
    Ted Cruz Ping!

    If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.
    Please beware, this is a high-volume ping list!

    CRUZ or LOSE!

22 posted on 04/30/2015 2:25:45 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: reasonisfaith
How likely is that to happen in the Middle East?

Especially given all the sectarianism and factionalism?

How good is our government at finding the right leadership and putting it into place?

How good are those foreign leaders at keeping the peace between factions? Or staying honest?

23 posted on 04/30/2015 2:26:18 PM PDT by x
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To: x

My comment was not clearly stated. What I meant was the right U.S. leadership.


24 posted on 04/30/2015 2:41:26 PM PDT by reasonisfaith ("...because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved." (2 Thessalonians))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz’s strategy is not to shape his principles to win the most votes, it is to articulate such principles as to shape voters.


25 posted on 04/30/2015 2:43:17 PM PDT by DaveyB (Live free or die!)
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To: American Constitutionalist; All
"me personally I want the UN far away from US shores as possible."
Totally agree, like Lake Geneva, all the Stalinist Dictators, new/aging Marxists and
despotic "Peoples Socialist Republics" Reps. can cavort and spent $$$$ there..and not
bother us with anti-social / illegal actions< /center>

26 posted on 04/30/2015 2:57:35 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass ("Any girl can be glamorous. All you have to do is stand still and look stupid." Hedy Lamarr)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, there’s stupid, and then there’s Voxstupid.

- JP


27 posted on 04/30/2015 3:41:33 PM PDT by Josh Painter ("Constantly choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil." - Jerry Garcia)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"There isn't really a natural Cruz constituency"

But there is a "natural consituency" (whatever that is) for corrupt lesbian shrews and shadowy black marxist schmoozers?

28 posted on 04/30/2015 3:54:10 PM PDT by IronJack
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Astroturf and Media Shills ping.

29 posted on 04/30/2015 4:06:15 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (What do we want? REGIME CHANGE! When do we want it? NOW!)
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To: captnorb

From your keyboard to God’s ears....


30 posted on 04/30/2015 4:10:50 PM PDT by Bigg Red (Let's put the ship of state on Cruz Control with Ted Cruz.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

W gave Cruz a job; Jeb gave Hillary a medal.


31 posted on 05/01/2015 12:21:34 AM PDT by Plummz (pro-constitution, anti-corruption)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I believe that when we go to war smart bombs should be used last, or in certain
circumstances. All this PC War does is get us killed, and that's not the point of War.

Letting God sort them out isn't a joke, it's winning.

32 posted on 05/01/2015 12:30:30 AM PDT by MaxMax (Call the local GOP and ask how you can support CRUZ for POTUS, Make them talk!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

““there isn’t really a natural Cruz constituency””

we the people

10’S OF MILLIONS OF US YEARNING FOR SOMEONE TO VOTE

((F O R))


33 posted on 05/01/2015 8:53:52 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The author...


34 posted on 05/01/2015 8:57:22 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Falcon 105)
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To: reasonisfaith
I don't think that's how it works. If the US government is confident enough to intervene abroad, it's usually not going to simply scoot back home ASAP.

It's not about nation-building, though. Who's talking about that now? It has more to do with not letting ISIS or al-Qaeda or pro-Iranian forces take over the rubble and use it as a base for further attacks.

"No nation-building" is a hollow slogan nowadays. It's what politicians accuse their opponents of doing while they do pretty much the same thing themselves.

What are the alternatives? Either we find some native force to re-establish order (which involves something very like nation-building) or we do it ourselves with our own troops or allies from the region, or we hightail it back home and our intervention is accused of being a failure or futile or counter-productive.

I notice that Ted Cruz did vote against ground intervention in Syria, and that supports the writer's argument. But I'm not sure that he'd behave all that differently from Rubio or another possible president if he were elected. The difference between what politicians say when they're running for office and what they do when they get in is very familiar by now.

35 posted on 05/01/2015 1:28:32 PM PDT by x
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To: x

See if you can tell a difference between Cruz and most politicians.


36 posted on 05/01/2015 3:40:48 PM PDT by reasonisfaith ("...because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved." (2 Thessalonians))
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