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Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark
Wall Street Journal via MSN ^
| 1/27/15
| Robert Lee Hotz
Posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather
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“Too much trust was based on a single model, and there was not enough emphasis on uncertainty,” said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting service. “The European model was about 100 miles off. That is a big deal for a heavy snow situation.”
Science!
To: Libloather
2
posted on
01/27/2015 4:57:02 PM PST
by
9thLife
("Life is a military endeavor..." -- Pope Francis)
To: Libloather
It’s funny that they cant predict thing 2 days out, but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...
3
posted on
01/27/2015 4:58:58 PM PST
by
babygene
To: Libloather
Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its MarkNot a problem. Shall we apply the same standards of accuracy to the Global Warming computer predictions?!
4
posted on
01/27/2015 5:00:41 PM PST
by
DakotaGator
(Weep for the lost Republic! And keep your powder dry!!)
To: Libloather
Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.The Euro model had been doing much better than the GFS(US) model for years. That why they went with the Euro.
5
posted on
01/27/2015 5:00:53 PM PST
by
FreeReign
To: Libloather
“in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model,”
But the science is settled!
/ snerk
6
posted on
01/27/2015 5:01:10 PM PST
by
Darksheare
(Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
To: babygene
but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...And will bet the economy on it ...
7
posted on
01/27/2015 5:01:49 PM PST
by
FatherofFive
(Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
To: Libloather
The Greatest Weather Forecaster, in my opinion, was Group Captain Sir J. M. Stagg. He certainly did not have the Billions of dollars in forecasting equipment that they have today, but with some weather balloons and scientific guessing he made D-Day possible in June 1944.
To: Libloather
Libloather :" Science! "
The last I knew , scienc was "GIGO" (Garbage in /Garbage out)as far as computer models.
Maybe they need to reorganize their information based on facts, rather that tell us about fantasy "GOWBULL CLIMATE CHANGE " !!
To: FreeReign
Correct, but we never hear about all the times the Euro model was correct and the US models missed badly...
10
posted on
01/27/2015 5:03:24 PM PST
by
gov_bean_ counter
(Romans 1:22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools)
To: FreeReign
GFS has not done too well since it was upgraded a year or two ago, at least not for tropical storms. Euro was better.
11
posted on
01/27/2015 5:04:28 PM PST
by
Ray76
(al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
To: Libloather
They can’t predict 4 hours out.
Why should anyone believe they can predict 100 and 200 years out?
12
posted on
01/27/2015 5:04:47 PM PST
by
xzins
( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
To: Libloather
13
posted on
01/27/2015 5:04:50 PM PST
by
Lazamataz
(With friends like Boehner, we don't need Democrats. -- Laz A. Mataz, 2015)
To: Libloather
Consensus in weather forecasting, as in all science, does not make it so. I wish the smartest people on Earth would remember this.
The Pope tried this when the Earth was the center of the solar system, be decree and be consensus.
The consensus was also the Louis Pasteur could never successfully develop a vaccine for rabies.
To: Captain Peter Blood
15
posted on
01/27/2015 5:07:36 PM PST
by
Libloather
(Embrace the suck)
To: Libloather
But those computers that predict global warming, climate change and rising sea levels are beyond reproach.
To: Darksheare
“But the science is settled!”
More like Science Fiction!!!
I’ll stick with my Weather Rock....At least it works.
17
posted on
01/27/2015 5:11:14 PM PST
by
EXCH54FE
(Hurricane 416,Feisty Old Vet !!)
To: Ray76
GFS has not done too well since it was upgraded a year or two ago, at least not for tropical storms. Euro was better.I believe the GooFuS was upgraded in Nov., 2014.
To: Captain Peter Blood
I trust Farmer’s Almanac more.
To: FreeReign
Was it upgraded before that as well? It kept spinning up phantom storms this year.
20
posted on
01/27/2015 5:16:09 PM PST
by
Ray76
(al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
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