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“Too much trust was based on a single model, and there was not enough emphasis on uncertainty,” said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting service. “The European model was about 100 miles off. That is a big deal for a heavy snow situation.”

Science!

1 posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather
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To: Libloather

Models, schmodels.


2 posted on 01/27/2015 4:57:02 PM PST by 9thLife ("Life is a military endeavor..." -- Pope Francis)
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To: Libloather

It’s funny that they cant predict thing 2 days out, but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...


3 posted on 01/27/2015 4:58:58 PM PST by babygene
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To: Libloather
Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark

Not a problem. Shall we apply the same standards of accuracy to the Global Warming computer predictions?!

4 posted on 01/27/2015 5:00:41 PM PST by DakotaGator (Weep for the lost Republic! And keep your powder dry!!)
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To: Libloather
Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.

The Euro model had been doing much better than the GFS(US) model for years. That why they went with the Euro.

5 posted on 01/27/2015 5:00:53 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Libloather

“in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model,”

But the science is settled!
/ snerk


6 posted on 01/27/2015 5:01:10 PM PST by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
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To: Libloather

The Greatest Weather Forecaster, in my opinion, was Group Captain Sir J. M. Stagg. He certainly did not have the Billions of dollars in forecasting equipment that they have today, but with some weather balloons and scientific guessing he made D-Day possible in June 1944.


8 posted on 01/27/2015 5:01:54 PM PST by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Libloather
Libloather :" Science! "

The last I knew , scienc was "GIGO" (Garbage in /Garbage out)as far as computer models.
Maybe they need to reorganize their information based on facts, rather that tell us about fantasy "GOWBULL CLIMATE CHANGE " !!

9 posted on 01/27/2015 5:03:07 PM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Libloather

They can’t predict 4 hours out.

Why should anyone believe they can predict 100 and 200 years out?


12 posted on 01/27/2015 5:04:47 PM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Libloather

13 posted on 01/27/2015 5:04:50 PM PST by Lazamataz (With friends like Boehner, we don't need Democrats. -- Laz A. Mataz, 2015)
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To: Libloather

Consensus in weather forecasting, as in all science, does not make it so. I wish the smartest people on Earth would remember this.

The Pope tried this when the Earth was the center of the solar system, be decree and be consensus.

The consensus was also the Louis Pasteur could never successfully develop a vaccine for rabies.


14 posted on 01/27/2015 5:06:34 PM PST by LachlanMinnesota
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To: Libloather

But those computers that predict global warming, climate change and rising sea levels are beyond reproach.


16 posted on 01/27/2015 5:09:21 PM PST by allendale
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To: Libloather

Ah , they were in Global Warming Mode ,which is 100% Hoax


23 posted on 01/27/2015 5:18:43 PM PST by molson209 (Blank)
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To: Libloather
She blinded me with science!
26 posted on 01/27/2015 5:24:15 PM PST by KosmicKitty (Liberals claim to want to hear other views, but then are shocked to discover there are other views)
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To: Libloather

Just because everyone agrees, doesn’t make it true. Science berated Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian doctor, who first proposed in 1847 that mothers and babies were dying because doctors did not wash their hands in maternity wards. He noted that the wards staffed by doctors had three times the fatalities that wards with midwives had. He was ridiculed and ostracized for daring to think that a doctor could spread disease with his hands. (Of course, there are still instances where doctors and nurses don’t wash their hands between patients, but they know better.)


28 posted on 01/27/2015 5:28:10 PM PST by txrefugee
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To: Libloather

The narrative is more important than the computer model ...


29 posted on 01/27/2015 5:30:30 PM PST by spodefly (This is my tag line. There are many like it, but this one is mine.)
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To: Libloather

Oooohhhh..... the wrong model. Okay. No problem. How cool
to have a job where you can be so wrong, responsible in part
for millions of dollars of lost economic activity and no consequence.

Just another day. NEXT!!!


30 posted on 01/27/2015 5:31:58 PM PST by americas.best.days... ( I think we can now say that they are behind us.)
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To: Libloather

The Weather Channel even gave it a name: Blizzard Juno.

Later, it was downgraded to: Winter Storm Juno.

:)


31 posted on 01/27/2015 5:36:47 PM PST by TomGuy
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To: Libloather
"Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark"

GIGO
32 posted on 01/27/2015 5:37:03 PM PST by clearcarbon
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To: Libloather

You don’t even need science. Going out and looking at the sky might help. Yesterday, I noticed the birds were barely eating at my outdoor feeders. That’s odd, I thought. We’re due for a blizzard. Then I drove into town and looking around I noticed: no fog. Almost always with bad snow storms, you get this ominous fog. It was just an ordinary grey. We did have a storm that dropped about 6 inches but I knew no blizzard was coming.


34 posted on 01/27/2015 5:38:17 PM PST by miss marmelstein (Richard the Third: Loyalty Binds Me)
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To: Libloather
In the equation for easterly storm movement variation the drift valuation Δd was greater than projected. As a result, the snow fell in the ocean
35 posted on 01/27/2015 5:38:53 PM PST by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12, 73, ..... Obama is public enemy #1)
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