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Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark
Wall Street Journal via MSN ^ | 1/27/15 | Robert Lee Hotz

Posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather

National Weather Service experts misjudged the path and impact of the blizzard that struck the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model, several independent meteorologists said.

Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.

This time, the European forecasting model was wrong, several commercial forecasters said. That model, one of four complex computer simulations normally used to calculate weather patterns along the Eastern seaboard, predicted that the heaviest snow would fall between 50 and 100 miles farther west than actually occurred. Still, it correctly calculated the broader outlines of the blizzard. As predicted, the storm pounded parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine, with winds in excess of 50 mph and snow in some locales up to 30 inches deep.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: blizzard; climatechange; forecast; globalwarming
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“Too much trust was based on a single model, and there was not enough emphasis on uncertainty,” said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting service. “The European model was about 100 miles off. That is a big deal for a heavy snow situation.”

Science!

1 posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather
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To: Libloather

Models, schmodels.


2 posted on 01/27/2015 4:57:02 PM PST by 9thLife ("Life is a military endeavor..." -- Pope Francis)
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To: Libloather

It’s funny that they cant predict thing 2 days out, but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...


3 posted on 01/27/2015 4:58:58 PM PST by babygene
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To: Libloather
Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark

Not a problem. Shall we apply the same standards of accuracy to the Global Warming computer predictions?!

4 posted on 01/27/2015 5:00:41 PM PST by DakotaGator (Weep for the lost Republic! And keep your powder dry!!)
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To: Libloather
Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.

The Euro model had been doing much better than the GFS(US) model for years. That why they went with the Euro.

5 posted on 01/27/2015 5:00:53 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Libloather

“in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model,”

But the science is settled!
/ snerk


6 posted on 01/27/2015 5:01:10 PM PST by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
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To: babygene
but they damn well are sure about 50 years out...

And will bet the economy on it ...

7 posted on 01/27/2015 5:01:49 PM PST by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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To: Libloather

The Greatest Weather Forecaster, in my opinion, was Group Captain Sir J. M. Stagg. He certainly did not have the Billions of dollars in forecasting equipment that they have today, but with some weather balloons and scientific guessing he made D-Day possible in June 1944.


8 posted on 01/27/2015 5:01:54 PM PST by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Libloather
Libloather :" Science! "

The last I knew , scienc was "GIGO" (Garbage in /Garbage out)as far as computer models.
Maybe they need to reorganize their information based on facts, rather that tell us about fantasy "GOWBULL CLIMATE CHANGE " !!

9 posted on 01/27/2015 5:03:07 PM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: FreeReign

Correct, but we never hear about all the times the Euro model was correct and the US models missed badly...


10 posted on 01/27/2015 5:03:24 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Romans 1:22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools)
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To: FreeReign

GFS has not done too well since it was upgraded a year or two ago, at least not for tropical storms. Euro was better.


11 posted on 01/27/2015 5:04:28 PM PST by Ray76 (al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
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To: Libloather

They can’t predict 4 hours out.

Why should anyone believe they can predict 100 and 200 years out?


12 posted on 01/27/2015 5:04:47 PM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Libloather

13 posted on 01/27/2015 5:04:50 PM PST by Lazamataz (With friends like Boehner, we don't need Democrats. -- Laz A. Mataz, 2015)
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To: Libloather

Consensus in weather forecasting, as in all science, does not make it so. I wish the smartest people on Earth would remember this.

The Pope tried this when the Earth was the center of the solar system, be decree and be consensus.

The consensus was also the Louis Pasteur could never successfully develop a vaccine for rabies.


14 posted on 01/27/2015 5:06:34 PM PST by LachlanMinnesota
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To: Captain Peter Blood

15 posted on 01/27/2015 5:07:36 PM PST by Libloather (Embrace the suck)
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To: Libloather

But those computers that predict global warming, climate change and rising sea levels are beyond reproach.


16 posted on 01/27/2015 5:09:21 PM PST by allendale
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To: Darksheare

“But the science is settled!”

More like Science Fiction!!!

I’ll stick with my Weather Rock....At least it works.


17 posted on 01/27/2015 5:11:14 PM PST by EXCH54FE (Hurricane 416,Feisty Old Vet !!)
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To: Ray76
GFS has not done too well since it was upgraded a year or two ago, at least not for tropical storms. Euro was better.

I believe the GooFuS was upgraded in Nov., 2014.

18 posted on 01/27/2015 5:11:21 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Captain Peter Blood

I trust Farmer’s Almanac more.


19 posted on 01/27/2015 5:12:17 PM PST by ilovesarah2012
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To: FreeReign

Was it upgraded before that as well? It kept spinning up phantom storms this year.


20 posted on 01/27/2015 5:16:09 PM PST by Ray76 (al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
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