Posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather
National Weather Service experts misjudged the path and impact of the blizzard that struck the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model, several independent meteorologists said.
Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.
This time, the European forecasting model was wrong, several commercial forecasters said. That model, one of four complex computer simulations normally used to calculate weather patterns along the Eastern seaboard, predicted that the heaviest snow would fall between 50 and 100 miles farther west than actually occurred. Still, it correctly calculated the broader outlines of the blizzard. As predicted, the storm pounded parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine, with winds in excess of 50 mph and snow in some locales up to 30 inches deep.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Yo,bitch. !!!!!!!!!!!
.
I wholeheartedly agree. However, the best Stagg could offer was marginal conditions. It was Ike who had the stones to make the hard decision to go.
Ah , they were in Global Warming Mode ,which is 100% Hoax
“The Euro model had been doing much better than the GFS(US) model for years. That why they went with the Euro.”
exactly!
Probably better off that way.
I like how they can say “our models were wrong” here, but they are adamant that the cimb mate change models are correct.
I believe the last major upgrade to the GFS was in May 2012. The 2014 upgrade was considered “significant”...something about horizontal resolution.
Just because everyone agrees, doesn’t make it true. Science berated Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian doctor, who first proposed in 1847 that mothers and babies were dying because doctors did not wash their hands in maternity wards. He noted that the wards staffed by doctors had three times the fatalities that wards with midwives had. He was ridiculed and ostracized for daring to think that a doctor could spread disease with his hands. (Of course, there are still instances where doctors and nurses don’t wash their hands between patients, but they know better.)
The narrative is more important than the computer model ...
Oooohhhh..... the wrong model. Okay. No problem. How cool
to have a job where you can be so wrong, responsible in part
for millions of dollars of lost economic activity and no consequence.
Just another day. NEXT!!!
The Weather Channel even gave it a name: Blizzard Juno.
Later, it was downgraded to: Winter Storm Juno.
:)
That’s great ;D
You don’t even need science. Going out and looking at the sky might help. Yesterday, I noticed the birds were barely eating at my outdoor feeders. That’s odd, I thought. We’re due for a blizzard. Then I drove into town and looking around I noticed: no fog. Almost always with bad snow storms, you get this ominous fog. It was just an ordinary grey. We did have a storm that dropped about 6 inches but I knew no blizzard was coming.
Agreed, Ike had the brass and then some.
The National Weather Service had issued a forecast of a storm in the Upper Midwest for November 9th and 10th, but predicted that it would pass south of Lake Superior and would have its most devastating impact on central Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Based on that forecast, two ships -- the Edmund Fitzgerald and the Arthur M. Anderson -- left Wisconsin on November 9th and sailed eastward across Lake Superior.
Capt. Paquette, drawing on his years of experience sailing on the Great Lakes, ignored the National Weather Service forecast and predicted that the storm would sweep northward directly across Lake Superior. He departed from port and took a longer, slower route along the north shore of Lake Superior to protect his ship from the heavy seas that would form across open the stretches of water when the rotation pattern of the storm would bring the wind from the north and northwest.
Despite the longer/slower route, the Wilfred Sykes was the first ship on Lake Superior to reach its discharge port after the storm subsided and the search for the wreckage of the Edmund Fitzgerald began.
That's the kind of weather forecaster I want piloting my ship!
This is why Cuomo jr needs the new NY weather service!
Or maybe some relative needs a job?
“”Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City””
How telling that the weather service picks the “worst” forecast. The government manipulators hoped this storm would be historic so they could demonstrate their preparedness. Just like Global Warming, reality got in the way of politics.
The Weather Station should consult with Chicken Little before announcing the next historic storm.
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