Posted on 01/01/2015 9:01:58 AM PST by Kaslin
ST. PETERSBURG, FL. In recent presidential election cycles, Florida's primary has basically decided the Republican nomination. In 2008 John McCain received the endorsement of then-Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and after winning the sunshine state's primary, never looked back. Even more dramatically, Mitt Romney reversed what seemed to be a potentially fatal loss to Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina primary by besting the former speaker just days later in the Florida contest.
The fight in 2016 for Florida's rich number of delegates could once again bring an early and final decision in the race for the GOP nomination, especially if either former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio emerges as a frontrunner prior to the Florida vote. Should either of the two potential Floridian candidates choose not to run, the state would likely support the other as its favorite son.
But what if Bush and Rubio both decide to compete for the nomination? That could make Florida a big problem for both men.
At first blush and certainly in the eyes of most of the national media, Bush would be presumed a clear frontrunner in the state he once governed. But to underestimate Rubio could be a big mistake, given his defeat of a heavily favored Charlie Crist in Rubio's first and winning bid for the U.S. Senate.
For Bush there would be huge advantages to being dubbed the "Republican Establishment" candidate. For one thing, he could sap big money away from the likes of Mitt Romney. There is usually only enough cash available for one mainstream candidate by the time the primary season gets to the big, delegate-rich states. And with outside Super Pacs now playing an increasingly powerful role, the big-name candidates fade quickly if they are out bankrolled.
But Rubio is not to be discounted. Other than his brief dance with "immigration reform," which nearly destroyed his relationship with the more conservative wing of the GOP, he has managed to maintain the sort of profile and record that could make him the darling of conservatives. That's especially true if potential candidates such as Sen. Rand Paul or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee decide not to run in '16, or if they fall by the wayside in the early primaries.
Rubio is still counting his team as ready should he decide to jump into the race. And his virulent attacks on the Obama administration's move to normalize relations with Cuba have fired up a portion of Rubio's Cuban-American base in Florida.
The most interesting part of a potential Bush-Rubio showdown in Florida's 2016 primary would be the fact that in most ways, both men are staunch conservatives. Bush is unquestionably the most conservative member of his family of famed leaders. And he was an ardent conservative long before it was cool within his party.
Perhaps the best news for a Rand Paul effort is that while Paul's candidacy would have a conservative/libertarian flavor to it, should he survive into the big-boy round of primaries, Florida could be split between Bush and Rubio. That could give Paul's new brand of politics a chance to emerge successfully from what has been in recent years the "Florida Mandate" -- the reality that one must win the state's presidential primary winner to become the eventual GOP nominee.
Of course, the big remaining issue is the date of the Florida primary. In recent presidential years, Florida has violated silly Republican Party rules and held its contest ahead of some of the "sacred-cow" states that have traditionally gone first. But with either Bush or Rubio running, it seems very unlikely that the state legislature, controlled by the GOP, would attempt to violate national party rules and risk being penalized by the national party by losing its delegates at the national convention.
As we have all learned, Florida is the new microcosm of America. However it votes in primaries or in the November showdown, so too votes the nation. It is likely the state will hold onto that power once again, with a new twist of having at least one hometown hero in the contest.
Governor Scott Walker comes especially to mind
Rubio joins hands with McCain in aiding and funding Syrian 'rebels'..
If not him, then one of the other youngish Midwestern governors who have established a pretty good record.
While he doesn't pass the FR Purity Test, I think Kaisich would be a good candidate, too.
imho, Charlie Christ blows with the wind....he had little to do with the McCain choice....the long-in-th-tooth GOPINO elitists pushed that middle of the road choice on us and I suspect will try to do the same this time around.
Serfs please great your new master the “Mexichurian Candidate!”
John Ellis “Jeb” Bush has been groomed since birth to be president. Even his nickname “Jeb” is a sop to the southern voter. Jeb has been building his Mexican/Latin American connections since college:
Jebby got hooked in with the east coast elite by attending high school at the Massachusetts boarding school Phillips Academy.
At 17 he taught English as a second language in León, Guanajuato, Mexico While in Mexico, he met his future wife, Columba Garnica Gallo.
he later graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a B.A. in Latin American Studies.
In 1977 James Baker sent him to the Venezuelan capital of Caracas to open a new operation for the Texas Commerce Bank as branch manager and vice president.
He married a Mexican national Ms. Gallo.
He is fluent in Spanish.
Jeb moved to Florida right after his father George H. W. Bush was elected president.
Jeb took a job in real estate with Armando Codina, a 32-year-old Cuban immigrant and self-made American millionaire.
Jeb was the Chairman of the Dade County Republican Party. Dade County played an important role in the 1986 election of Bob Martinez to the Governor’s office.
In 1989 Jeb served as the campaign manager of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the first Cuban-American to serve in Congress.
About the only major Republican options that I could not stomach, no matter how hard I tried, would be Christy and Romney.
I'm not a single-issue voter, and I think the other candidates fit with the majority of my positions. I don't think I'll get a PERFECT candidate, and I'm not looking for one. Conservative, not a fool, and electable. That's not asking for much.
I would be embarrassed to have my name attached to such a bizarre and absurd theory.
You don’t really think that’s why Newt lost Florida. My Mitt-stuffed mailbox, robo-phone calls to my house, radio ads on talk radio and the nightly TV commercial broadcasts I saw, can tell you exactly why Newt lost Florida. Mitt actually ran/campaigned against a conservative. That is why we were so flabbergasted down here at what happened in the general election. Mitt was no where to be found. He did nothing. I got maybe one mailer, a couple radio and tv ads, no phone calls. We knew what he was capable of, we’d seen him go after Newt, but he didn’t do a thing against Obama.
It may be all well and good for people to talk about taking the high road, but in the end, when someone is trying to take your head off and eviscerate you, response is needed. Only Tokyo Rove would advise the opposite.
Bottom line, Mitt’s extensive funds were spread all over Florida to defeat Newt (conservative) and unless he could have matched Mitt postage for postage, robo-call for robo-call, radio ad for radio ad, TV commercial for TV commercial, payoff for payoff, taking the high road would just have earned Newt the admonishment, ‘he should have done something to counter all the negative ads from Romney.’
And Romney paid money to the TV and radio stations to keep Mitt off the air. Mitt lied through his teeth, with a big smile on his face. I don’t think JEB could do that, he’s not as big a liar as Mitt or Marco, but the people around him certainly know how to stir up things that will upset voters in Florida.
Unfortunately FLorida is a lock for Bushunless ONE Conservative candidate sweeps all the other contests before Florida.
Cruz is an exception to that rule, because he is exceptional.
I prefer Cruz to Walker, but I can comfortably support either man.
I was involved on a minute by minute basis in this campaign from August of 2011 through Florida. I know WTF I’m talking about here. I was aware of every speech, every radio ad, every TV ad, and every poll.....and I know what Newt was doing the two times he was routing the field, and I know what he did when he blew it, twice.
Yes, Mitt had zillions of dollars and that was a big key - but Newt could have still won had he stayed on message. I lived this thing every damned second.....I suspect you did not. Yes, I had a very official position,
Close your primaries, and ensure the snowbirds from voting twice (or more), then we’ll talk.
I think this is much clearer and not as confusing
concur
How was he going to combat all the lies on TV, Radio, and mailers? I don’t know how much time I spent correcting people about the garbage Mitt was shoveling. I wasn’t even a supporter of Newt. I was just so sick of seeing Mittens lies and him pressuring the TV and radio ad people to keep Newt from being able to respond.
You may know the GOPe view of how things go in an election. But you should get out more and talk to “we the people.” We can tell you what is seen and heard. Newt sticking to message would have received no play whatsoever. Mitt was already doing what he could to make sure nothing he did got out. Maybe in the other smaller less blanketed states, staying on message would have helped. But here in Florida he was crushed by Mitt’s lies from every direction.
Don’t try to imagine I’m a sour grapes Newt supporter. Newt seated on the couch with Nazi Pelousy was enough to turn me away from him for life. I just could not stand to see him or anyone else dumped on by cheating, lying azz socialist Mitt using his bully money to go after a conservative.
Christy is out of the question for me also and Romney has no plan to run. I wished the media would stop with their speculations
You are correct we will never find the perfect candidate and those who think they do are dreaming
Yeah Governor Kasich of OH would be good too
you so so so so miss the point. So did Newt at the time. When Newt was winning (twice during the process) he was IGNORING the other Republicans and torching Obama, academia nuts, radical judges, the media, etc.
It happened early in Iowa. It then was what the SC primary was all about. Newt never had money. With 2 debates each week, it didn’t matter. Check it out. You’ll see my little history lesson here is right on the damned money. Period.
Like I said, I lived this as a professional consultant daily.......
I believe you were a professional consultant. Being a professional consultant is the problem. Preconceived notions don’t always play out. But professional consultants get paid for their preconceived ideas. So the preconceived ideas can never be wrong, to them it must always be a problem with the execution.
So don’t be surprised when I take your advice with a grain of salt.
You stepped into my trap - my opinion was the opposite of the “DC consultants” - almost 180 degrees. You’ve bought into way more of the bullsh-t conventional wisdom of the DC consultants than I ever have in my life.
Can I send you a copy of my Amazon best seller - about the problems with the “consultant class.” I was a consultant, but I am NOT in THE CLUB...the DC club. My cred is tea party, talk radio, columns, interviews....
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