Posted on 01/01/2015 9:01:58 AM PST by Kaslin
ST. PETERSBURG, FL. In recent presidential election cycles, Florida's primary has basically decided the Republican nomination. In 2008 John McCain received the endorsement of then-Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and after winning the sunshine state's primary, never looked back. Even more dramatically, Mitt Romney reversed what seemed to be a potentially fatal loss to Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina primary by besting the former speaker just days later in the Florida contest.
The fight in 2016 for Florida's rich number of delegates could once again bring an early and final decision in the race for the GOP nomination, especially if either former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio emerges as a frontrunner prior to the Florida vote. Should either of the two potential Floridian candidates choose not to run, the state would likely support the other as its favorite son.
But what if Bush and Rubio both decide to compete for the nomination? That could make Florida a big problem for both men.
At first blush and certainly in the eyes of most of the national media, Bush would be presumed a clear frontrunner in the state he once governed. But to underestimate Rubio could be a big mistake, given his defeat of a heavily favored Charlie Crist in Rubio's first and winning bid for the U.S. Senate.
For Bush there would be huge advantages to being dubbed the "Republican Establishment" candidate. For one thing, he could sap big money away from the likes of Mitt Romney. There is usually only enough cash available for one mainstream candidate by the time the primary season gets to the big, delegate-rich states. And with outside Super Pacs now playing an increasingly powerful role, the big-name candidates fade quickly if they are out bankrolled.
But Rubio is not to be discounted. Other than his brief dance with "immigration reform," which nearly destroyed his relationship with the more conservative wing of the GOP, he has managed to maintain the sort of profile and record that could make him the darling of conservatives. That's especially true if potential candidates such as Sen. Rand Paul or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee decide not to run in '16, or if they fall by the wayside in the early primaries.
Rubio is still counting his team as ready should he decide to jump into the race. And his virulent attacks on the Obama administration's move to normalize relations with Cuba have fired up a portion of Rubio's Cuban-American base in Florida.
The most interesting part of a potential Bush-Rubio showdown in Florida's 2016 primary would be the fact that in most ways, both men are staunch conservatives. Bush is unquestionably the most conservative member of his family of famed leaders. And he was an ardent conservative long before it was cool within his party.
Perhaps the best news for a Rand Paul effort is that while Paul's candidacy would have a conservative/libertarian flavor to it, should he survive into the big-boy round of primaries, Florida could be split between Bush and Rubio. That could give Paul's new brand of politics a chance to emerge successfully from what has been in recent years the "Florida Mandate" -- the reality that one must win the state's presidential primary winner to become the eventual GOP nominee.
Of course, the big remaining issue is the date of the Florida primary. In recent presidential years, Florida has violated silly Republican Party rules and held its contest ahead of some of the "sacred-cow" states that have traditionally gone first. But with either Bush or Rubio running, it seems very unlikely that the state legislature, controlled by the GOP, would attempt to violate national party rules and risk being penalized by the national party by losing its delegates at the national convention.
As we have all learned, Florida is the new microcosm of America. However it votes in primaries or in the November showdown, so too votes the nation. It is likely the state will hold onto that power once again, with a new twist of having at least one hometown hero in the contest.
They did such a great job the last time. < / sarcasm >
We are sooo screwed.
It would get VERY INTERESTING if Rubio, Bush, and Romney split most of the Republican vote (i.e., the Establishment and those that don’t pay attention).
...and then Cruz sweeps up the conservative vote, all to himself and winds up winning.
This would make me very happy.
Now that’s a very pleasant scenario!!!
GO TED!!!
Under the radar Cruz control.
So this is nothing but speculation which should be ignored until they announce their decision to run.
And what if he does not run?
The biggest strength and the weakness of the tea party is the decentralization. It is great when the grassroots are empowered, but at the same time the leadership is not clear cut. There could be multiple true tea party candidates splitting the votes, while the top-down establishment can easily consolidate around a single candidate.
This can happen, and let me tell you how:
Cruz will do well in Iowa, maybe win, but do well....then survive New Hampshire...then roll into SC and kick ass like Newt did in 2012.
BUT, unlike Newt, not get into pissing contest with Jeb or Mitt or whoever...just focus on the opponents, the liberals. Had Newt done that, he could have won Florida and the nomination. He didn’t.
And it was over after Florida, both in 08 and ‘12....with McCain beating Mitt in 08 and Mitt beating Newt in ‘12. Nothing else mattered, and nothing else ever changed the trajectory of the contest.
“...should be ignored until they announce their decision to run.”
This assumes that politicians keep their words. They have everything in place before they announce. But they have things rolling months and years in advance.
BUT, unlike Newt, not get into pissing contest with Jeb or Mitt or whoever...just focus on the opponents, the liberals. Had Newt done that, he could have won Florida and the nomination. He didn’t.
Newt was a paid stalking horse for Romney. His big donor money would have dried up had he beaten Romney in FL. It was always going to be Romney in 2012. The fix was in.
A common tactic when asked is to just refer to the present: “I’m not running...”, and leave it at that. They never seem to complete the sentence, with a “... at the current moment.”
” Bush is unquestionably the most conservative member of his family of famed leaders. And he was an ardent conservative long before it was cool within his party.”
G W can’t run again, so I don’t know what this dullard is talking about. Jeb is about as conservative as Arlen Spector, meaning not at all.
Then there is no scenario for a Cruz victory. Did I really have to tell you that?
HA! HA! HA! HA!
The only way Rubio becomes the "darling" of conservatives is for him to give up his senate seat and get gov. Rick Scott to appoint a real conservative to fill it. This article is so phony. Reminds me of the Enquirer in the old days. There is no real news here. It's just them trying to create some.
My former Senator from TN Fred Thompson was pressured to run in 2008. I voted for him in our primary, which was in February because I liked him. Unfortunately he dropped out soon afterwards because his heart was not in it and I swore to my self that I would never vote for anyone who is pressured to run.
I don’t see Rubio jumping in if Jeb runs. They were quite close in Florida politics. Despite his recent nonsense, Jeb was a very good governor and Rubio was defintiely a protege. Unless Rubio just has uncontrollable ambitions and willing to run roughshod over Jeb at all costs, I don’t see it.
As this article states, other than the pathetic gyrations on immigration two years ago, Rubio is rock solid on conservative issues. Although I was extraordinarily disappointed in the immigration debate not only by by his position but his poor tactics and weak performance. His stock dropped in my eyes. That said, I am not giving up on him completely. He’s still one of our better advocates on most issues in the Senate and comparatively I would pick him over jeb any day of the week.
LOL....just LOL!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.