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Posted on 12/18/2014 4:34:51 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Senator Ted Cruz just gave a major foreign-policy speech at the Heritage Foundation critiquing the disastrous nature of what he labeled as the “Obama-Clinton” approach to the subject. His desire to lay out his foreign-policy views in detail at such a venue as well as his focus on Clinton was a clear indication of something that is not exactly a secret: he’s planning on running for president in 2016. Members of his party’s establishment, which generally despises him as much as his fellow senators and the liberal media, do not take Cruz’s ambition too seriously. But as much as it seems unlikely that he will be taking the presidential oath at the Capitol in January 2017, that establishment should be a lot more afraid of Cruz than they seem to be. Anyone who thinks he will not be a formidable primary contender is paying more attention to the media caricature of Cruz than the facts.
Let’s start by conceding that Cruz’s well-earned image as a Senate bomb-thrower and his truculent public personality makes him a poor bet as a general-election candidate. Being a true believer is an asset in a primary but his uncompromising style won’t win many independent or crossover voters. Just as important, Cruz not only sounds ornery much of the time, he generally looks it too–and in the television era it’s far from clear that Americans will ever again elect someone who doesn’t strike them as being nice or personable. But let’s put those issues aside for a moment and consider Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in a context in which liberal media bias as well as the imperative of winning the center won’t be as decisive as they would be in a general election.
It should be understood that while many in the media and among the partisans of the so-called moderates in the putative GOP presidential field think Cruz is just another version of past Republican candidates that were more gadflies than serious contenders, he is nothing of the sort. Cruz is no Michele Bachmann, a candidate who quickly imploded because of her penchant for embracing crackpot causes (like her opposition to a vaccine against cervical cancer) after enjoying a couple of months in the summer of 2011 during which it seemed as if she might get as far as Rick Santorum eventually did during the 2012 primaries. Cruz is good at playing up the down-home charm, a brilliant debater (a former college champion), and a savvy political tactician with a strong command of the issues and policy options on both domestic and foreign policy. If you’re going to make comparisons to 2012 candidates, imagine someone with the folksiness of Rick Perry (albeit in a Cuban Texan version), the passion of Santorum on populist and social conservative issues, the debating skill of Newt Gingrich, and the wonkish grasp of details of a Mitt Romney and you have a fair idea of what Cruz brings to the table.
Cruz’s ability to rouse the Tea Party base should also not be underestimated. While that constituency has been widely derided in the last couple of years as the GOP establishment managed to fend off challenges to many incumbents from Tea Party types, the grassroots conservatives have not disappeared and will turn out to support someone who can inspire passion. Cruz can do that for the exact same reasons that he appalls the establishment. The Texan can approach every key conservative issue, whether it is ObamaCare or immigration, with a laser-like precision that more easygoing or moderate candidates can’t match.
Cruz won’t win votes from those who don’t like Washington dysfunction. Republican governors are likely to win those votes. But having never given an inch or compromised on anything during his first two years in the Senate, neither will it be possible to accuse him of selling his soul to get ahead as is the usual rap on House or Senate veterans.
As for being able to organize a serious campaign, Cruz will be no latecomer to the party. He’s been working toward this goal for some time and it’s not likely that he will be caught short on organization. It remains to be seen whether the Tea Party faithful can give him enough money to fight to the end in the absence of him becoming the cause of a major donor the way Sheldon Adelson bankrolled Gingrich or Foster Friess subsidized Santorum. But Cruz is not the sort to be outworked so those who think he can’t raise enough cash are probably making a mistake.
Will that be enough to help him fend off a large number of other conservatives vying for the same voters? We don’t know, but the way he parachuted into Washington in January 2013 and quickly became the darling of the right indicates that he must be considered a serious threat to edge out others before they even get started. More to the point, Cruz is probably ideally positioned to win early primary and caucus states and then rake in the cash that will follow those victories before he tries to best the other first-tier candidates in the contests that follow. At worst, barring a mishap, I think he should be slotted in as likely to be part of a large field’s first tier.
Is he a lock to be able to carry out that scenario? Not necessarily. There will also not be as many debates in 2016 as there were in 2012, meaning that he won’t have as many opportunities to display his bulldog style or to eviscerate opponents in public. And the later primary schedule that year will make it easier for establishment types to wait before joining the race.
But the point here is that while Cruz may be considered an outlier in the Senate chamber, he’s likely to play better on the hustings in Iowa and other early states than establishment types think. Cruz may shoot himself in the foot in the next year and find others supplanting him among Tea Partiers and the rest of the party. But any assumptions on the part of the establishment that he will crash and burn is a huge mistake. Cruz may not be president but his path to the Republican nomination is no pipe dream.
Walker pierced the myth of invincibility of public unions, and took every shot they sent. That's a great accomplishment.
Don't make him something he's not, though.
That doesn’t mean Walker is against ‘immigration reform,’ it means he’s against Obama’s executive order to accomplish it.
They do fear it, and will do everything within their power to defeat him.
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Keep trying...
No it means he’s one of 17 state governors actively doing something to stop Obama’s executive amnesty.
He’s certainly not handing out teddy bears on the Mexican border either if you catch my drift...
“Cruz not only sounds ornery much of the time, he generally looks it too–”
That’s OK.
I absolutely prefer that my 2016 presidential candidate be a pissed-off Conservative.
Your post didn’t contradict mine...did you have a point?
I’m worried about the money. The big donors are looking at Jeb or Mitt or Christie.
Ha Ha! Love it!
If every conservative in this country donated just $100, the problem would be solved.
> “If every conservative in this country donated just $100, the problem would be solved.”
They can, they must and I believe they will.
Install Cruz control on this country.
Actions speak louder than words and if anyone is “soft” on immigration its the guy handing out teddy bears on the Mexican border.
Sabe?
The huckster will be trotted out by Rove to garner the evangelical vote away from Cruz. Ryan has shown he has drank the Potomac kool-aid and is more a threat to Jeb than Cruz. The Huckster, Walker and Paul are Cruz’s main concern. If it were to come down to Cruz and just one of these two I think he could take Bush out and win the nomination.
Prediction, if Cruz should win the nomination the long knives will be out for him from the GOPE and they will trash him the way they did Goldwater. Should he still manage to win if I were him I would gut the RNC top to bottom at every level and anyone who worked for the Vichy would be out.
Walker is a conservative with an "enlightened" viewpoint on illegal immigration. He recently told his legislature that he did not want his agenda derailed by Right To Work legislation.
Nope but the Anti-Christ will be.
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Have no fear, I personally will donate $250.00 when Ted announces he’s running, and another $250.00 if Ted receives the republican nomination.
The very conservative members of the GOP such as some of the Tea Partiers are generally considered to have an advantage in primaries because they are activists and highly motivated to beat the so-called Establishment.
Under this theoretical model of Republican politics, the most conservative candidates should win the primary for every office, not just the Presidential primaries—if, in fact, they are a majority of the party.
But somehow the votes are never there. So they always come up with conspiracy theories and villains who have stolen the election from the rightful winners.
Folks, math don’t lie. You have to win with votes and to get the majority of the votes you have to have the best candidate with the best message for the voters.
Cruz is smart, handsome and charismatic. Bush is smart, but not charismatic or handsome. It should be a good test so bring it on.
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