Posted on 12/18/2014 4:34:51 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Senator Ted Cruz just gave a major foreign-policy speech at the Heritage Foundation critiquing the disastrous nature of what he labeled as the “Obama-Clinton” approach to the subject. His desire to lay out his foreign-policy views in detail at such a venue as well as his focus on Clinton was a clear indication of something that is not exactly a secret: he’s planning on running for president in 2016. Members of his party’s establishment, which generally despises him as much as his fellow senators and the liberal media, do not take Cruz’s ambition too seriously. But as much as it seems unlikely that he will be taking the presidential oath at the Capitol in January 2017, that establishment should be a lot more afraid of Cruz than they seem to be. Anyone who thinks he will not be a formidable primary contender is paying more attention to the media caricature of Cruz than the facts.
Let’s start by conceding that Cruz’s well-earned image as a Senate bomb-thrower and his truculent public personality makes him a poor bet as a general-election candidate. Being a true believer is an asset in a primary but his uncompromising style won’t win many independent or crossover voters. Just as important, Cruz not only sounds ornery much of the time, he generally looks it too–and in the television era it’s far from clear that Americans will ever again elect someone who doesn’t strike them as being nice or personable. But let’s put those issues aside for a moment and consider Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in a context in which liberal media bias as well as the imperative of winning the center won’t be as decisive as they would be in a general election.
It should be understood that while many in the media and among the partisans of the so-called moderates in the putative GOP presidential field think Cruz is just another version of past Republican candidates that were more gadflies than serious contenders, he is nothing of the sort. Cruz is no Michele Bachmann, a candidate who quickly imploded because of her penchant for embracing crackpot causes (like her opposition to a vaccine against cervical cancer) after enjoying a couple of months in the summer of 2011 during which it seemed as if she might get as far as Rick Santorum eventually did during the 2012 primaries. Cruz is good at playing up the down-home charm, a brilliant debater (a former college champion), and a savvy political tactician with a strong command of the issues and policy options on both domestic and foreign policy. If you’re going to make comparisons to 2012 candidates, imagine someone with the folksiness of Rick Perry (albeit in a Cuban Texan version), the passion of Santorum on populist and social conservative issues, the debating skill of Newt Gingrich, and the wonkish grasp of details of a Mitt Romney and you have a fair idea of what Cruz brings to the table.
Cruz’s ability to rouse the Tea Party base should also not be underestimated. While that constituency has been widely derided in the last couple of years as the GOP establishment managed to fend off challenges to many incumbents from Tea Party types, the grassroots conservatives have not disappeared and will turn out to support someone who can inspire passion. Cruz can do that for the exact same reasons that he appalls the establishment. The Texan can approach every key conservative issue, whether it is ObamaCare or immigration, with a laser-like precision that more easygoing or moderate candidates can’t match.
Cruz won’t win votes from those who don’t like Washington dysfunction. Republican governors are likely to win those votes. But having never given an inch or compromised on anything during his first two years in the Senate, neither will it be possible to accuse him of selling his soul to get ahead as is the usual rap on House or Senate veterans.
As for being able to organize a serious campaign, Cruz will be no latecomer to the party. He’s been working toward this goal for some time and it’s not likely that he will be caught short on organization. It remains to be seen whether the Tea Party faithful can give him enough money to fight to the end in the absence of him becoming the cause of a major donor the way Sheldon Adelson bankrolled Gingrich or Foster Friess subsidized Santorum. But Cruz is not the sort to be outworked so those who think he can’t raise enough cash are probably making a mistake.
Will that be enough to help him fend off a large number of other conservatives vying for the same voters? We don’t know, but the way he parachuted into Washington in January 2013 and quickly became the darling of the right indicates that he must be considered a serious threat to edge out others before they even get started. More to the point, Cruz is probably ideally positioned to win early primary and caucus states and then rake in the cash that will follow those victories before he tries to best the other first-tier candidates in the contests that follow. At worst, barring a mishap, I think he should be slotted in as likely to be part of a large field’s first tier.
Is he a lock to be able to carry out that scenario? Not necessarily. There will also not be as many debates in 2016 as there were in 2012, meaning that he won’t have as many opportunities to display his bulldog style or to eviscerate opponents in public. And the later primary schedule that year will make it easier for establishment types to wait before joining the race.
But the point here is that while Cruz may be considered an outlier in the Senate chamber, he’s likely to play better on the hustings in Iowa and other early states than establishment types think. Cruz may shoot himself in the foot in the next year and find others supplanting him among Tea Partiers and the rest of the party. But any assumptions on the part of the establishment that he will crash and burn is a huge mistake. Cruz may not be president but his path to the Republican nomination is no pipe dream.
Much of the “fat cat” money may go to Gov. Bush, but we can raise many tens of millions at the grassroots & TEA Party level to counter that. I think Senator Cruz’s staff are the types who can squeeze a nickel into a dollar bill, from what I’ve read about them. Just ask “senator” Dewhurst.
It’s a poker game between the paupers and the prince. Every time the paupers put a few more $5 chips on the table, the prince’s backers will put on $500. That was one of the deals stuck in the CRimenibus, raising corporate donations to almost infinity. And the corporations want JEB.
Cruz, Paul , Walker and one or two other conservatives will split up the Conservative vote allowing an Establishment candidate like Bush or Romney to mop up everything else. We have seen this picture before.
Now go back and read the article.
I have no doubt that I can raise $2 million dollars. I’m just a nobody schlub who can barely walk in a town outside of Dallas. Imagine what a connected person could do. And no, I’m not dreaming. I raised just over $40,000 for Fred Thompson in the short time he was in the race.
MegaCorp Inc just snickers and says,
“I’ll see your 2 million and raise you 20. And I’m giving it to BOTH candidates.”
I think I agree with that. I will certainly contribute all I can. Moreover, I think Cruz’s supporters offer something that the GOPe is not prepared for at all.
It is one thing for a GOPe candidate to be ridiculed and diminished by Democrats with canned, illogical and untrue spin. It is entirely another thing to be savaged by people with a brain that has their number.
We know them, we know all their lies, their subterfuge, their equivocations, their hypocrisies, and what their true shriveled appeasing conniving hearts hold. Savage them. Mercilessly, unceasingly. That’s the kind of primary season they could expect from me if Cruz is on deck. His opponents would be as Democrats to me - worse.
Good. Waste your money. BTW, besides the almost no opposition election to the Senate, what campaign has Hillary ever won? If money were all that mattered, John Connolly, Mitt Romney, Don Trump, Steve Forbes, George Romney, Pete DuPont and Nelson Rockefeller would’ve all been president.
Absolute twaddle!
After the US elected (twice) the cypher, unvetted loser and demonstrated failure, “O” ... ALL BETS ARE OFF in terms of WHO can and should be considered as Presidential material!
It's a new world and the author has NO clue about what's happened here!
Wondering how much Tobin is getting paid for these hit pieces or who is giving him his marching orders.
Thankfully he has no credibility outside the Beltway echo chamber that he lives in.
Hopefully more than Jennifer Rubin.
Walker is not conservative. He is a Priebus/Ryan/Romney/Rove GOPe lackey.
Bush has billions. Of course cash did not count in senate primaries. Freaked out the e (GOP e)
Is Ted Cruz a natural-born citizen eligible to serve as president? [Yes! And I support him! JimRob]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3084490/posts
Hey, I hope Cruz wins. I just see him driving a $50 soapbox derby car vs. Jeb’s corporation-sponsored Ferrari.
The fix is in. Team Plutocrat won. The Crimenibus was our Tyranny Enabling Act.
It’ll be Hillary, Warren or Jeb in the White House. The border will remain open, the invasion will continue.
The Bushes are not billionaires based on everything I’ve seen.
As I asked another poster yesterday: Then why come here? To depress everyone else?
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