Posted on 11/13/2014 6:01:11 PM PST by abb
We’ve talked in the past about John Diez, the Prairieville-based polling guru of Magellan Strategies Baton Rouge, and the solid reputation his firm has put togther among politicos around the state.
What our readers might not know is that Diez, who did the internal polling for the Garret Graves campaign, had a frighteningly-accurate forecast of the 6th District race a week before election night.
Diez had that race as follows:
Edwards 29 (finished with 30) Graves 24 (finished with 27) Dietzel 13 (finished with 14) Claitor 10 (finished with 10) Whitney 6 (finished with 7)
That’s what’s known as one red-hot pollster.
So when Diez comes out with a poll today saying the Dec. 6 runoff in the Senate race is going to be a massive blowout for Bill Cassidy, unless some major intervening event were to happen between now and Election Day you can pack Mary Landrieu’s Senate office up and ship her belongings elsewhere.
The poll has Landrieu with 88.8 percent of the black vote and Cassidy with 7.2 percent, which would represent something of an improvement for Cassidy given that he pulled three percent of the black vote on Nov. 4 according to the exit polls and Landrieu had 94 percent. Diez’ sample was 69 percent white and 27 percent black, which would indicate a bit whiter electorate than what turned out in the primary – but that’s what most folks expect.
But it also says Barack Obama is a colossal millstone around Landrieu’s neck – and so is Harry Reid…
Interestingly enough, 51 percent of the respondents said they’re registered Democrats compared to 35 percent who said they’re Republicans – but when it comes to party ID that completely flips over and then some. Asked which party best represents their point of view, 62 percent said Republican compared to 38 percent who said Democrat.
This is a very, very red state – and it’s getting redder.
Landrieu’s favorable-unfavorable number is 36.8-56.7, which means she’s completely unelectable. Cassidy’s number is 46.6-38.0.
It must be said that Diez’ poll is an internal poll for Cassidy. Because of that there will be people who scoff at it.
But there were people who scoffed at his polling of the 6th District race. We’ll have a post in coming days about that, but let’s just say his results speak for themselves.
54
Why would people who identify with the GOP be registering as Democrats?
Operation Chaos?
They didnt leave the Democratic party, the Democratic party left them.
She only got 42% of the vote with 3 republican challengers against her. She’s going to get blown out because the libs won’t even show up to cast a vote.
Here is the complete document.
http://lincolnparishnewsonline.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/cassidy-survey-111214-memo.pdf
How would Landrieu get FEWER votes than she did in the primary?
1. She’s been hammered in ads since election day, and unable to respond much at all.
2. There’s now no chance that she’ll matter in committee.
3. Demographics will lean further to the right with a smaller turnout.
I think you mean 55.
4. No “street money” for vote hauling and other turnout activities.
Ping
You can add Obama issuing executive action amnesty too. That 16 pt spread might be 30 pts
Cassidy should win by 20+ if citizens are waking up.
Next up…current incumbents who have done nothing to reverse the debt and set this republic on the right path. The freshmen have a blank slate and if they do not become part of the solution, then they too are part of the problem.
BIG GOVERNMENT IS CRONY SOCIALISM
Socialism Is Legal Plunder - Bastiat
Debt per TAXPAYER = $153,271
DEPOPULATE socialists/progressives/marxists/totalitarians/RINOS/republicans/democrats/liberals/criminals/liars/POS punks and con men from the body politic.
DEFUND/DISMANTLE their collectives, agencies, departments, ngos.
CONFISCATE their assets. Why be their debt slave?
live - free - republic
C’mon 2016
polling is useless in this case.
No assurance who will show up for a runoff election.
No data for follow through vs. polling.
Well-stated.
You got it. Louisiana has a deservedly nasty reputation for dirty politics and election misdeeds. Anything is possible, including a Landrieu win.
But without free-and-easy mostly unregulated street cash, I don't see any way she can pull this off, barring a Cassidy blunder.
Of course, desperation can lead HER to even more mistakes... sexist and racist... "Where was Cassidy during Katrina?"
She’s melllllting!
Getting to 50% of the vote in the runoff would be easier if all the opposition vote wasn’t GOP.
To have a shot at prevailing, Mary Loser needs to pray for Common Core math to appear in LA.
Good luck with it.
He will make 54-46
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