Posted on 10/20/2014 1:30:39 PM PDT by Din Maker
DES MOINES, Iowa—Marilynn Wadden, a retired elementary school teacher, was smiling as she settled into her seat at a Democratic field office here and began making calls for Senate candidate Bruce Braley. "We love this," Wadden says of the computer system that is doing the dialing for her. "It is just such a joy."
Two years ago, when Wadden was making calls as a volunteer for President Obama, she had to punch numbers into the phone herself, write down voters' answers on paper, and then hand off the sheets to a data-entry team. "Now, we're kind of doing the data as we go," she says as she types. "I bet people are twice as efficient on the phone."
That is a frightening thought for Iowa Republicans still smarting from two straight cycles of defeat that they blame on superior Democratic infrastructure. "The Obama machine, organization—whatever you'd like to call it—took us to school in 2008 and again in 2012," says David Oman, who cochaired Mitt Romney's Iowa campaign last cycle.
This year, Oman is finance chairman for Joni Ernst, the Iowa Republican nominee for Senate, who is locked in one of the closest contests of the cycle—a race many believe could tip the Senate majority. And Oman is hoping the third time is the charm.
There is certainly plenty going right for the Iowa GOP in 2014: an unpopular Democratic president, a favorable political climate, and a popular GOP governor cruising to reelection atop the ticket. But as they are in Senate races across the country—Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, to name a few—Democrats here are hoping smart tactics can offset a national mood that favors Republicans. And in Iowa, fears of the Democratic machine lurk not far below the surface.
"Am I confident? Of course," Oman says. "Am I overconfident? Of course not."
What the Republicans also have going for them this year is Ernst herself, a folksy state senator and lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard who has emerged as one of the breakout stars of 2014. She burst through a crowded Senate GOP primary with an ad touting her farm-girl roots castrating hogs. "Let's make them squeal!" she said of Washington spenders. The ad drew national attention (627,000 YouTube views and counting) and a deluge of donations.
It hasn't hurt that Ernst has a toothy grin and would be the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate—"Mother. Soldier. Independent leader." is plastered on her campaign RV. Or that she is running in the 2016 caucus-kickoff state—Republican presidential contenders have been tripping over themselves to fly into Iowa to help. Ernst hauled in $6 million in the third quarter, the most of any candidate in the country in any quarter this cycle.
"She's got momentum. She's got charisma. But Democrats have great organization there," former top Obama strategist David Axelrod said of the race on MSNBC earlier this month. "It's really organization versus momentum and charisma, and we'll see."
Left out of Axelrod's analysis was Braley himself, one of the biggest Democratic disappointments of the cycle. ("David Axelrod is entitled to his opinion," Braley told me during a stop in Des Moines. "But, look, his opinion is not going to turn out voters in Iowa.") During last fall's government shutdown, he complained, albeit half-jokingly, about the lack of towel service at the House gym. Braley stuck his foot in his mouth again earlier this year when he mocked the state's popular senior senator, Republican Chuck Grassley, as a "farmer from Iowa who never went to law school." A clip of that remark is playing on repeat in ads across Iowa.
Most recent polls have shown Ernst narrowly ahead and her supporters more energized. She is more liked than disliked by Iowa voters, while Braley's favorability rating is underwater in most surveys.
But as the race enters the final two-week sprint, it's clear that Ernst isn't so much battling Braley. She's battling the Democratic get-out-the-vote apparatus
"She's just a good candidate. I think it can break her way," says Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Republican and social conservative activist who recently has been on a tour across the state. "But there's just no doubt that there's a good reason to be scared."
BALLOT CHASING
On a recent Wednesday, more than two dozen Democratic activists in Des Moines were dialing for Braley alongside Wadden. There weren't enough tables and chairs in the field office, so some of the younger volunteers sat cross-legged on the floor, phones pressed to their ears. In a quieter corner, two legally blind volunteers were making calls together; their service dog, Amber, milled about the office.
Democrats have 35 of these field offices across the state; Republicans have only 13 (not counting local organizations).
Iowa is one of the first states to begin voting, back in late September. Its election rules also allow for so-called ballot chasing—party officials or volunteers physically gathering ballots from voters to turn them in. It's a setup that benefits the best-organized campaigns.
Both parties have tussled who has a superior early-vote operation this year. Democrats boast that they are mobilizing people who would otherwise not have voted, pointing to unusually high numbers of voters who didn't cast a ballot in the last midterm. "We are literally expanding the electorate," brags Christina Freundlich, communications director for the Iowa Democratic Party.
Of the Republicans, Braley says, "If you just are targeting voters, to get them to vote early, who would have voted on Election Day, that's not how you're going to win this race."
National Democratic operatives say that Iowa is one of the states where the much-ballyhooed $60 million get-out-the-vote operation dubbed the "Bannock Street Project" will make the most difference. (Colorado is another.)
The fact that the Iowa race is within the margin of error in most polls heightens the importance of field operations.
Both sides acknowledge that Republicans were late to the ground game in Iowa, by not recognizing in previous cycles the importance of securing votes ahead of Election Day. "They are at the point now of realizing that early vote is the way to go. We're just a few cycles ahead of them on that," Freundlich says. "Every day is an election day. Election Day is just the last day to vote."
Republicans insist they've closed the gap, pointing to numbers that show the Democratic edge in partisan ballots turned in has waned compared to past years. The goal for Republicans is to keep the race close through early voting; as several GOP operatives noted, even Romney won Iowa among voters who went to the polls on Election Day.
David Kochel, a senior Ernst strategist, admits he was nervous about the 2014 GOP field operation at first but his confidence has grown as the numbers roll in. "Not anymore," he says. "The uninspired remnants of the Obama organization isn't going to be enough to stop an invigorated GOP ticket led by [Governor] Terry Branstad and Joni Ernst. There's no comparison."
Perhaps the biggest wild card is the efforts of Americans for Prosperity, the conservative nonprofit affiliated with brothers Charles and David Koch, which recently told The Washington Post that it has five offices and three dozen paid staff, and has knocked on 80,000 doors. AFP Iowa did not return calls for comment.
THE BETTER CANDIDATE
Joni Ernst has emerged as the rare Republican capable of uniting the disparate factions of the Republican Party. She was endorsed both by Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a contested primary. And her potential as a fresh female face in a party desperate for more female leaders has added to her allure.
Consider this: Romney, Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, Gov. Rick Perry, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Marco Rubio, Rep. Paul Ryan, Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Sens. Rob Portman, John Thune, Kelly Ayotte, and John Barasso all have attended or hosted events for Ernst in recent months.
"She's become a rock star, certainly among Republicans," says Oman, her finance director. To put her $6 million third quarter in perspective, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell raised $3.2 million during the same period.
Ernst, 44, has served in the state Senate since 2011, after working a local auditor. But it's her two decades in the military, and service in Iraq as part of the Iowa National Guard, that she has highlighted on the trail. "My boots were on the ground now held by ISIS," she retorted to Braley in their last debate.
Ernst has excited not just GOP insiders but Iowa voters. A recent NBC/Marist poll showed a huge enthusiasm gap, with more than 60 percent of Ernst backers saying they were actively supporting her, versus 34 percent who were more opposing Braley. The reverse was true for him. More than 60 percent of his supporters were mostly opposed to her, rather than actively for him.
After a recent rally with Romney, Ernst's appeal was on display as she hugged her way through the GOP crowd, snapping pictures, sharing embraces, and even signing the shirt of one man in a wheelchair. (Her staff whisked her away from reporters, however, as Ernst refused to answer any questions.)
Ernst has starred in many of her own ads. Besides talking hog castration, she has fired a gun, ridden a motorcycle, and baked biscuits on camera. Braley, 56, who has served in Congress for four terms, had appeared in few of his own general election ads until late September. Ernst gathered more than 60 percent of online voter interest, compared with under 40 percent for Braley, according to a recent analysis by Echelon Insights, a digital GOP firm.
Democrats have tried to cut Ernst down with a campaign to cast her as an extremist. They have some politically potent fodder, including video of her speaking about the possibility of privatizing Social Security and her support for "personhood" legislation, which could ban some forms of birth control (Ernst says she is in favor of birth-control access). She's suggested that states could nullify federal law and raised the specter of impeaching Obama. She also suggested that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, before trying to backtrack.
"Sound bites have consequences," Braley has repeated over and over during their debates and on the stump, perhaps more hopefully than factually. Months of attacks have taken their toll on her, but she has avoided the "crazy candidate" stigma that has landed on some other Republicans who have faced such withering critiques.
The campaign has turned so negative that both Braley and Ernst said in a debate that they and their families have stopped watching television altogether.
Ernst's emergence as the Teflon candidate of the cycle (despite all the ads, she's still viewed more favorably than not) has exasperated Democrats and some liberal media allies. ("How does this GOP Senate candidate keep getting away with such terrible gaffes?" asked Mother Jones. "Tea Party nut's free ride," read Salon.)
Democrats are flying in high-powered allies to lift up Braley in the final weeks with mixed success. When two of Braley's biggest surrogates, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Clinton, came to Iowa in recent weeks, they both flubbed his name. "You need to elect Bruce Bailey," Obama urged Democrats at Drake University. She misstated his name half a dozen times, providing fodder for GOP web videos and late-night comedians alike. "Wow," joked Stephen Colbert, "a powerful endorsement from the first lady."
The embarrassing episode aside, Braley invited the first lady back. On Tuesday, she'll be in Iowa City, trying to round up more voters in the liberal college town.
"Democrats always have a great ground game," Braley says. "That's how you win elections in Iowa."
Democrats have 35 of these field offices across the state; Republicans have only 13.
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Well, I guess it all boils down to who wants the victory the most. And, it looks like the ‘Rats want it almost 3 times more than the Pubbies want it in Iowa; and probably everywhere else. JUST DAMN!
It would be great to hear about a “machine” on our side as opposed to constantly whining about theirs and voter fraud.
Can I ask a stupid question?
We are told there’s a war on women and all that.
How do the liberals reconcile their war on women with supporting a MAN over a woman in Iowa???
If they are in favor of women’s empowerment, and women in politics and all that, how do they explain this? They are supporting a man against a woman candidate for high office.
IF there is really a war on women, and they are dedicated to electing women to office, wouldn’t that override partisan politics? Shouldn’t they be happy to see yet another woman be elected to the Senate????
Iraq did have WMD. Even the NYTimes finally admits it.
Democrats are interested in winning. Conservatives, it’s hard to say what we are interested in, but winning is not very high up on our list.
Tell you what: give the GOPe the same technology/ground game presence as the RATS and they’ll still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You have to have a message, not an edict from that jerk Rove to avoid offending anyone.
Want is 3X more? C’mon, that’s not even logical. It’s called cash.
Yes, it all comes down to money, and we can’t compete with the new rich, which is the well connected Soros Union government crony rich.
The GOP GOTV did just fine in 2010.
Mid terms are one thing. Prez elections something totally different.
Wish I wouldn’t have read this. Now, I’m depressed.
Conservatives are interested in winning. Its the Republican party who choose to loose by standing for nothing.
She is a conservative who is running as a Republican, but how many GOP elitists believe the same things she does?
“Ground Game” = vote fraud.
All those people sitting at home pouting are a powerful force for victory, at least in their own minds.
They do not recognize conservatives as women.
If they are sitting at home its because the GOP failed. They have to work to get a vote.
Because young single women want free contraceptives and abortion on demand. So they vote for liberal men like Braley over conservative women like Ernst who could vote to restrict those items.
Sit at home. Good way to beat Democrats, that’s for sure. We’ll show ‘em.
We had a far better GOTV when Ed Gillespie was RNC chairman, far better. He is much smarter than the twit in there now.
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