Posted on 10/16/2014 2:17:45 PM PDT by knak
Edited on 10/16/2014 3:45:22 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
How is Obola NOT casually transmissible?
“(e.g. hauling corpses in taxis)”
There’s a good SNL skit in there, set in NYC. Would a corpse count as an extra passenger or luggage?
When the disease is most advanced is when the chance of infection of others is highest.
He helped carry the pregnant daughter of his landlord to the hospital and back. She died (I think) 2 days later.
The hospital workers who put him on a ventilator and dialysis machine were near the highest concentration of the virus. In the greatest danger.
There are also reports suggesting a longer quarantine period is advised.
I frankly don’t believe the reports that the nurses were infected during his first hours of hospitalization. The original story I heard is both nurses gave extensive care as he was dying. I think the new story is so they can pretend that the PPE is ok when it actually is not ok.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Incubation period is 21 days, more or less...
21 days is to 95% probability of infection/non-infection. If you wanted 99%, you'd go out another few weeks. Conversely, if you wanted a more-or-less of 75%, you'd estimate 16 or 17 days.
I suppose probabilistic trade-offs govern a lot of CDC pronouncements--like the contagion likelihood from people who have a low-grade fever. But those guesses are even sketchier than the incubation ones, because they'd require a lot more data and viral measurement experiments than have taken place.
The virus could be mutating adjusting to a healthier group people in the US thus showing up past 21 days.
Is 75% good enough to allow exposure of your children?
Of course not. She should be quarantined for at least 3 weeks, probably 4. I was just saying that her odds of survival were picking up.
Ah! Good, we’re on the same page.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
Thanks for the ping!
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