[null and void]

Sept 30th... she’s at 16 or 17 days... probably out of the woods.

Incubation period is 21 days, more or less...

[Pearls Before Swine]

Incubation period is 21 days, more or less...

21 days is to 95% probability of infection/non-infection. If you wanted 99%, you'd go out another few weeks. Conversely, if you wanted a more-or-less of 75%, you'd estimate 16 or 17 days.

I suppose probabilistic trade-offs govern a lot of CDC pronouncements--like the contagion likelihood from people who have a low-grade fever. But those guesses are even sketchier than the incubation ones, because they'd require a lot more data and viral measurement experiments than have taken place.

[jetson]

Sept 30th... she’s at 16 or 17 days... probably out of the woods. Incubation period is 21 days, more or less...

The virus could be mutating adjusting to a healthier group people in the US thus showing up past 21 days.