Posted on 09/15/2014 2:50:13 PM PDT by scouter
1%, maybe even 1/10th%, of those Jan/Feb 2015 numbers being in western nations will probably seriously impact commerce.
LONG before any pandemic reaches the projection SHTF level in 2015 there will be economic ramifications that have major consequence.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
I fervently hope that you’re a complete whacko and totally wrong.
Thanks for posting, though.
Better yet, consider the Hajj
Someone on the Ebola Surveillance board stated that there were 77,000 Nigerians scheduled to participate this year.
Authorities stated that they would be medically checked, but some are carriers who may not outwardly display any symptoms .
Yikes! Does your model assume the same rate of transmission in the developed world as in Africa? That would seem unlikely.
The pale horseman rides.
“And when the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living being say, ‘Come!’ And I looked up and saw a horse whose color was pale green like a corpse. And Death was the name of its rider, who was followed around by the grave. They were given authority over one-fourth of the earth, to kill with the sword and famine and disease and wild animals” (Revelation 6:7-8, NLT).
Up to 1/4th of the worlds population = 2 Billion.
Without symptoms, Ebola is not contagious.
Caveat: Unless you receive a blood transfusion from an asymptomatic case.
I think it’s crazy that there are still flights out of East Africa to the rest of Africa, Europe, Mideast, and NA.
The virus has an incubation period of 2-22 days, so you can have asymptomatic carriers walking around with the disease for for 3weeks. There will also be the equivalent of Typhoid Mary cases that spread the disease.
The virus has been mutating to fast for effective vaccines.
Airborne spread is likely, and care givers need to wear at least P100 filters. Regular masks will not be adequate.
If this thing does go global, we will have medical martial law and the US government already has laws in place to do just that.
Wow
Hi Scouter,
I’ve been tracking based on the WHO reported numbers. I have the new cases doubling about every 25 to 30 days.
Reason for using their numbers is that they are the most conservative available, and you can apply whatever scaling factor ends up emerging to correct the underreporting.
Do you generally confirm a doubling of 25 to 30 days?
I have around 6000 confirmed cases by around Oct 1, then 12K Nov1, 24K Dec1, based on the WHO’s numbers only - no correction factor.
Indeed.
AIDS spreads similarly to the way Ebola spreads (both are blood-borne pathogens). The majority of AIDs cases are in sub-Saharan Africa.
There is a HUGE difference between the US public health system and that of Africa.
“This model is contained within a macro-enabled Microsoft Excel 2010 spreadsheet (i.e., a .xlsm file). I would be willing to share it with other Freepers if someone can provide a place to post it for download and can tell me how to sanitize my name from it (again, I don’t want my employer to be in any way held accountable for this).”
Print it, redact information.
Go copy it at Kinkis, scan it and post it.
I hope you're right. The formula I'm using is Cases ^ (((DTR-1) * DaysOut) + 1).
Let's do an example, based on the actual data:
On 6/1/14 there were 383 reported cases. 101 days later, on 9/10/14 there were 4,845 cases. This gives a DTR of 1.004224155. Let's see how that DTR would project from June 1 to June 30 (29 days later).
If you use the formula, you will get:
383^(((1.004224155 - 1) * 29) + 1)
383^((.004224155 * 101) + 1)
383^(0.426639655 + 1)
383^1.426639655 = 794
The actual number of cases on June 30 was 759. So it's about 5% high in this instance. But let's do it again using June's DTR to project what the number of cases were at the end July. June's DTR was 1.00396518542771.
383^(((1.00396518542771 - 1) * 60) + 1)
383^((.00396518542771 * 60) + 1)
383^(0.219111856626 + 1)
383^1.219111856626 = 1,410
But at the end of July (actually, July 30) there were, in fact, 1440 cases. So the model is pretty close, but comes in 2% low.
Keep in mind that the model will improve over time as the actual numbers are incorporated.
Thank you for the information. I would like to believe that it would spur nearly universal attention to good hygiene, but with the current paradigm of common thought and behavior, probably not.
Yes, it does. And that's one of the factors that will work to lower the projections over time. But while it's still almost exclusively in West Africa, the DTR may actually increase.
“Does your model assume the same rate of transmission in the developed world as in Africa? That would seem unlikely.”
I have not heard a reasonable explanation why the “developed” world would have a lower rate of transmission. Better sanitation of course, but that sure doesn’t seem to prevent the transmission of the common cold.
Plus, in the developed world a sick person can travel to and from work (bus, train, elevator, etc.) and cover 20 miles in a day. A guy in some small village in Africa might travel 4 blocks in a week.
Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment.
I would like to know what has stopped previous Ebola outbreaks in the past, when annual deaths were in the hundreds. I wonder if there is a certain number, or circumstance (such as the recent cases in large cities with international airports) where it becomes a “cat out of the bag” situation.
Prayers for those afflicted, and for those treating them.
Excellent analysis. Out of curiosity what CFR percentage did you use? It looks like 50%.
I can make your Excel sheet anonymous or tell you how to do it. Then upload the file to Scribd.com to share.
Thanks for the info. We in the Ebola Surveillance thread have been saying much the same for quite a while. Hearing it from someone in the coding/medical informatics field supports our admittedly less rigorous projections.
I was hoping to share the spreadsheet itself, as a working model, so others on Free Republic could critique the underlying assumptions, formulas, etc. There is embedded information in it that will identify me. Like I said, I don't want my employer to take the hit if I am, as another poster said, completely wacko.
Excellent analysis. Out of curiosity what CFR percentage did you use? It looks like 50%.
I can make your Excel sheet anonymous or tell you how to do it. Then upload the file to Scribd.com to share.
Thanks for the info. We in the Ebola Surveillance thread have been saying much the same for quite a while. Hearing it from someone in the coding/medical informatics field supports our admittedly less rigorous projections.
I'm not sure what you mean be CFR percentage. I assumed that the reported numbers represent 100% of the actual epidemic. Does that answer your question?
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