Vanity - Ebola model projects future case based on Daily Transmission Rate

Self | September 15, 2014 | Scouter

[combat_boots]

Kudos

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/09/research-model-predicts-1-1-million-to-2-3-million-ebola-deaths-by-september-2015/

[Doc91678]

I wonder how many South African illegal aliens coming into America through our Southern borders have been contaminated with the Ebola virus? At this point the virus is only transferred by contact. If it matures into an aerosol type virus then we do have a problem. Will quarantine then work?

[Daffynition]

U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits

*We're from the government and here to help ourselves.*

[Max in Utah]

B F L

[piroque]

marked for later....Thanks for the post

[Black Agnes]

Actually I’d believe that Liberia has lost 50% of its medical personnel.

Nigeria has lost a handful of people at this point. God willing that’s all they’ll lose.

Liberia though is a horror show.

[Black Agnes]

Where they’ll share communal footbaths. And communal germs. And then return back to whence they came.

Including the ones who Hajj from the US.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Black Agnes:" Liberia though is a horror show."

I haven't seen any WHO/CDC statistical projections lately , have you ?

[scouter]

I’m sorry. CFR is Case Fatality Rate, to calculate number of deaths.

I used the reported fatality rate as of 9/10/14. The model allows me to adjust this for people who have contracted ebola within the last 3 weeks (and are included in the reported cases number), but have not yet died. In the adjustment, I apply the same fatality rate to these recent cases, but divide by two, assuming that of all the recent cases, half of those who will die have already done so.

[Excellence]

A friend’s favorite saying is, “In the end, the bacteria wins.” Of course this is a virus, but it applies.

[exDemMom]

I have not heard a reasonable explanation why the “developed” world would have a lower rate of transmission. Better sanitation of course, but that sure doesn’t seem to prevent the transmission of the common cold.

We have a better health care system, and are able to keep patients quarantined while tests are run to determine if they do have Ebola (if they have the travel history to suggest such testing is worthwhile). In the hospital, we practice good infection control measures.

An even more important factor is that we do not have the customs that they have in Africa. When someone dies, it is not part of our funeral custom to stroke or lay hands on the dead body to say good-bye. Nor do families wash the bodies or give them enemas while preparing them for burial, all of which are customs in Africa. Many of the Ebola cases happened through touching dead bodies at funerals.

[exDemMom]

What if someone developes symptoms after going through airport screening and/or medical testing , and is among the masses of the Hajj when symptoms show ?

Don't you beleive that the Islamo-facists/ISIS is already aware of the potential destruction that could be wrought world-wide ?

I'm sure that if they show up at a Saudi hospital with symptoms and travel history, they will be quarantined until the Saudi officials can rule out Ebola.

I can only speak to the medical/biological aspects of Ebola, within the context of a natural outbreak. I cannot say anything about the intentional spread of disease by terrorists.

[Cementjungle]

I think it’s crazy that there are still flights out of East Africa to the rest of Africa, Europe, Mideast, and NA.

A lot of flights had been cancelled, but the WHO has been putting a lot of pressure to keep flights operating. Same deal with some neighbors (Senegal for example) who wanted to close borders. WHO has been pushing to keep borders open.

Don't know if that' still the case, but that's what was going on a couple of weeks ago.

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[XEHRpa]

The problem is that early symptoms are similar to many other flu-like symptoms and might therefore not be immediately recognized. That’s one issue. Another is that, while not airborne, there is the issue of fomites, which are viral particles left on surfaces through human contact. A contagious person uses a door handle. Others that follow and touch that handle are at risk. I also hear that WHO was considering revising the period of contagiousness, to include some pre-symptomatic period... but I can’t find that link at the moment.

[exDemMom]

Tell that to the nurse that got Ebola from the Liberian/US diplomat then passed it on to a patient in the hospital while she was not symptomatic. We are being told a lot of things to keep people from panicking that are not adding up to truth.

While I understand the need to keep the public calm some of the lies just help the spread.

Are you talking about Patrick Sawyer? When he entered the hospital, he seemed to have malaria, and was treated for it. However, he had Ebola, the diagnosis of which was delayed because of the initial diagnosis of malaria. It was during that time that his caregivers were exposed. I am not aware of any secondary transmission events that occurred in the complete absence of symptoms.

Typically, patients become more contagious as the disease progresses. I just read the account of one of the doctors who treated Mr. Sawyer, who had physical contact with her parents before being taken to the hospital. She was quite worried that she had passed the disease to them, but she did not.

[exDemMom]

The problem is that early symptoms are similar to many other flu-like symptoms and might therefore not be immediately recognized. That’s one issue. Another is that, while not airborne, there is the issue of fomites, which are viral particles left on surfaces through human contact. A contagious person uses a door handle. Others that follow and touch that handle are at risk. I also hear that WHO was considering revising the period of contagiousness, to include some pre-symptomatic period... but I can’t find that link at the moment.

The reason it took several months for the Ebola outbreak to even be recognized was the non-specific nature of the early symptoms. That, and Ebola had never been seen in Guinea before. Malaria and Lassa are both common there, and have similar symptoms--IIRC, health officials thought they were dealing with Lassa, which can also have a hemorrhagic presentation.

The transmissibility of Ebola through fomites is an open question. The studies that would determine how long the virus remains infectious on various surfaces under various conditions have not been done. I have not heard anything about a revision of thought about the contagious period.

[ElenaM]

So your CFR is 50%, which I think is at the extreme low end, but at this point the CFR isn’t certain.

Thanks!

[ElenaM]

I have my son-in-law, active duty Army, listening for any “odd” orders, any hint that the military is being activated for in-country deployment. If that happens, my doors close in 72 hours and no one comes in until I am confident that the problem either didn’t exist (false alarm) or it has burned out.

Alternatively, when I hear that a confirmed case exists anywhere east of the Mississippi, the doors close in 72 hours. My daughter and granddaughter will be here by then and we can wait it out. My husband will probably continue to go to work but he’s agreed to stay with family closer to the city if it comes to that.

I guess everyone has to decide for themselves when it’s the right time to hunker down. I’m sure everyone’s predicate is different. The predicates I’ve selected mean I have a greater chance of being wrong but I’m okay with that. I’d rather be wrong and have my children living than be right and six feet under.

[Thud]

Gadsden1st,

Scouter's projection is just a spreadsheet. We've never seen Ebola loose in a major urban area before, where it could easily spread at double Scouter's projected rate.

IMO the issue for the US is vaccine availability. We must have 40-50 million Ebola vaccine units available right when Ebola hits a critical mass here - say about 100,000 victims - or it's national lockdown time for a month. What the indications of that would be is anybody's guess.

The trigger point for me panicking is when people are dying in the streets of Lagos, Nigeria, and not being immediately picked up. At that point Ebola will go worldwide even given widespread vaccine availability in the developed countries, and even the developed countries will suffer economic and financial catastrophe.