Posted on 09/15/2014 2:50:13 PM PDT by scouter
Neither he, nor the smartest woman in the world, have thought that far ahead.
You're right, of course. And I've tried to make that exact point in different ways throughout this thread.
Nevertheless, the point of doing the math for those who won't do it themselves is to show the pooh-poohers that this really is something to be concerned about. Sooner, rather than later.
I've wanted to show the growth of the epidemic, based on actual data, not on vague statements we're hearing from the government such a "the epidemic will get out of control if we don't do something soon." Because that's all we get. And when they do provide projections, it's only until the end of September. Based on current rates, the real action starts in December or January. The numbers help people see that for themselves.
If they see in real numbers where this is heading in the near future, perhaps some people will take heed.
Were you trying to post a link? The image you posted takes you to tinypic.com.
Basically, you are showing what happens with exponential growth.
Although I think your basic point is right, you missed some things that would greatly improve your model. (I used to teach statistics at the University level, and I still provide occasional expert witness work in the field. I’ve also done a bit of work with bio-statistics.)
If you want to have a more accurate model you will need to add a way to separate the dead and the recovered from the currently infectious.
You will also need to include a way to show growth slowing once the pool of uninfected people in a given area has shrunk significantly. Once a given area is wiped out there will be no more growth in cases from that location. A town can only die once.
At this stage these issues do not make a lot of difference in the numbers. But once this thing gets really going they will become major points.
If you want to get really complicated, and really SCARED, then give some thought to what happens when the medical system has been destroyed. How long it is from there until we have enforced movement restrictions. And how long the grid will hold up.
Wasn't trying to post a link. I often use images to notify The Ping List, instead of writing the word, "Ping."
Pretty much, but with a twist. I've been attempting to account for the rate of change in the rate of transmission. Another FReeper has convinced me that my formulas overestimate to some degree. That overestimation becomes more significant the further you move out into the future. I'm working on a new approach, based on more simple concepts like compounded interest. But I still want to account for the change in the rate of transmission that naturally occurs over time.
Although I think your basic point is right, you missed some things that would greatly improve your model... If you want to have a more accurate model you will need to add a way to separate the dead and the recovered from the currently infectious.
Yeah, I mentioned that. But it isn't quite that simple... Are the recovered really immune? Can't they get it again? Are they still contagious for some period of time (seems so, to some degree... the virus is present in the semen of males for up to 6 weeks, I think).
You will also need to include a way to show growth slowing once the pool of uninfected people in a given area has shrunk significantly. Once a given area is wiped out there will be no more growth in cases from that location. A town can only die once.
To further emphasize this point, taken out a few months further than I posted, the number of cases goes into the trillions. Obviously that can't happen. I don't even think it will go into the billions, and perhaps not even into the millions. But at what point will the shrinking pool of uninfected persons start to have an effect? And how quickly? I'm not sure how to incorporate that. I would be open to suggestions.
This is an extremely complicated point that would take a lot of data I don't have available to me to represent. How much the pool has shrunk in Monrovia will be different from how much it has shrunk in Sierra Leone. I may be able to account for it at the country level, or at the macro level (i.e., the world), but any further down that that will be a challenge.
If you want to get really complicated, and really SCARED, then give some thought to what happens when the medical system has been destroyed. How long it is from there until we have enforced movement restrictions. And how long the grid will hold up.
Another great point that's going to require some thought.
Read the link at post 2160 on the surveillance thread.
It’s even more complex than that. A “real world” prediction requires some assumptions about how governments will respond, and how people at the individual level will respond. These responses will vary depending on the local culture and how the disease has progressed in that location.
So... All things considered... Making a model of this is useful from a hypothetical “what if” standpoint, but not from a real world prediction standpoint.
HOWEVER, the public has no clue how bad this could get. Most of the public, including many Freepers, are convinced this no big deal because the numbers currently being cited are not large relative to other diseases. Models such as yours can help overcome their ignorance and apathy.
Which is exactly why I've emphasized over and over that this model projects into the future based on a constant transmission rate. It predicts nothing.
HOWEVER, the public has no clue how bad this could get. Most of the public, including many Freepers, are convinced this no big deal because the numbers currently being cited are not large relative to other diseases. Models such as yours can help overcome their ignorance and apathy.
Which, aside from my own professional curiosity, and the fact that my daughter will be on the front lines if it appears in my area, was my reason for making it and going public with it... to convince the pooh-poohers that it's not something to pooh-pooh. It's time to pay attention and to prepare. If it pans out according to the model's projections you'll be in good shape. If it doesn't, then you'll be prepared for the next big snowstorm. Either way, it's good.
...and schools, and open offices, and public transportation, and pretty much everywhere that groups of people gather.
Don't leave the house for sixty days or so, and the plague may pass you by. There is still time to assemble the necessary supplies.
It will be an obvious (Yes/No) decision by the end of November.
"Never bet on the end of the world. How are you gonna collect if you win?". (attributed to K. Denninger)
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