Posted on 11/05/2012 8:01:38 AM PST by Livin_large
With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Natures October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.
This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republicans campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaigns last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
So fast forward to 2012, now we have Obama doing far worse than Bush in 2004, tied in virtually every swing state (and Romney ahead in few). But according to Sabato, the race is over, he's calling it 100% Obama. Yeah, no agenda there...
And the 2004 race was never as close as the public polling showed. Sabato is missing the data coming out of Colorado, and he's plain wrong about Ohio (and he doesn't even see it coming in Wisconsin, but it is).
Why does anyone care what this obtuse fool believes?
If Obozo STEALS this election, then our Constitution will be dead.
If Obozo STEALS this election, then our Constitution will be dead.
Gingrich was on with Laura Ingraham this morning and he predicts 300+ electoral votes for Romney, 53% Romney/47% Obama.
I’ve been saying for weeks now Romney’s best shot is to win narrowly with FL, NC, VA, CO, NH and WI, losing OH, PA, MI, IA, NV, etc. But that is an oddball combination of states for a Republican to win with, mainly because of the OH/WI party swap. Not to mention no president has won since 1980 without both OH and NV in his column.
The fact that VA seems to be in play again and Romney has spent so much time there this week has been a major enthusiasm damper for me. Romney losing VA and still managing to win (by flipping PA?) is an even more oddball scenario.
It seems to me that Romney winning at this point has to either defy some solid historical trends, if it’s a narrow win, or erase a week’s worth of gains in the polls for Obama in 1-2 days, if it’s a 300+ EV win. One of them could happen but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.
Gingrich has been saying that for 2 weeks since before Obama’s recent bump in the polls. For him to be right, you have to believe that bump won’t help Obama at all in the final vote.
And Dick Morris is basing his similar prediction on the party ID poll done by Gallup which also was done a couple weeks ago before Obama’s bump.
Pre-election polls reflect 9% of the populace. They are worthless. The only poll that counts is the one we take tomorrow.
Which ever way the election goes there will be a large group of pundits eating crow.
Don’t be too discouraged about those voting machines.
It seems that the reports are coming from people using new touch screen voting machines.
If you’ve ever used a touch screen, say on a tablet or smart phone, you know how inadvertent touches, by trailing fingers, the edge of one’s hand, etc., can cause these screens to sense that as a signal.
You all can do a great service by telling anyone, especially older folks who might never have used a touch screen, how important it is not to drag one’s fingers or hand across the screen, but rather make deliberate contact on the screen with whatever you wish to turn on. In other words, don’t press around the button or checkmark or whatever or put your whole hand on it, but touch it right in the center.
In all of the poll analysis, they never mention NEW registrations in the swing states. How much might that factor in?
Does anyone care what Mr. Creosote thinks?
Not according to their website. The crystal ball for 2004 has Sabato predicting a tie.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/
Bush: 269 Electoral Votes / Kerry: 269 Electoral Votes
From the their final crystal ball statement in 2004:
We dont really believe the tie, but if ever there is a year that will produce an Electoral College tiegiven 10 tied polls at the endit is 2004. We really think that if turnout hovers around 115 million to 117 million Bush has the edge, but if turnout truly skyrockets, most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, Good job Mr. President, and Kerry will pull the upset.
So where do you come up with the idea he predicted a Kerry victory? I mean, at the end, when he makes his real predictions. Seems like he predicted a tie to me.
This just looks like more attacking the analyst/commentator because folks don't like what they have to say.
Romney was going to win Virginia BEFORE the Kenyan pissed off every active duty and Navy veteran in the state by saying he was cutting the size of the Navy. The “toss-up” then went to SOLID ROMNEY, and anyone that believes otherwise aint playing with a full deck. Romney will carry Virginia and NC, easily.
I am in full agreement. As much damage as I think Obama will do in a second term...the scariest aspect of an Obama win is that we've lost the country.
This is by far the easiest decision in our nation's history. We have a side lying, cheating and stealing...who've accomplished nothing but pass legislation a majority did not want. If a majority the American People can't see that then we are toast.
Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with Virginia Democratic politician Henry Howell. At the age of 15, Sabato joined Howell's first campaign for the Virginia governorship in 1968, and then worked on his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1971, and his campaigns for governor in 1973 and 1977.[3] [edit]
Sabato’s predictions are reasonable.
I disagree with them and think Romney squeaks by in Ohio and wins the election, but his take isn’t far fetched at all.
Still over 9 percent of the sheeple have no clue about who to vote for or even if they will vote at all. All 9 percent should just stay home or wherever they happen to live.
Reader Poll
Who is getting your vote for president?
Barack Obama 35.1%
Mitt Romney 52.8%
A third-party candidate 2.8%
I still don’t know 4.6%
I’m not voting 4.8%
Freep if you like:
http://www.dailyherald.com/news/region/
Scroll down the page.
I hate to say it becuase people on this site do not like any negative news, I don’t see Romney losing the popular vote but I believe it will be much harder to win the Electoral Vote. I’m not a seer, but my guess at this hour woujld be Romney 50, Obama 48, with a narrow win for the socialist in the EV. The larger the popular vote margin the better as it will diminish any “left fringe’ program he plans to implement.
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