Gingrich has been saying that for 2 weeks since before Obama’s recent bump in the polls. For him to be right, you have to believe that bump won’t help Obama at all in the final vote.
And Dick Morris is basing his similar prediction on the party ID poll done by Gallup which also was done a couple weeks ago before Obama’s bump.
In all of the poll analysis, they never mention NEW registrations in the swing states. How much might that factor in?