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Parsing the Polls [Why Romney Could Win By 5-10 points]
National Review ^ | November 03, 2012 | Michael G. Franc

Posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:11 PM PDT by Steelfish

NOVEMBER 3 Parsing the Polls If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party. By Michael G. Franc

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

If anything, Gallup understates the case......

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:15 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night? Will he blow a gasket? Will he have a meltdown? What about Ed Schulz and others on MSNBC?

I want to watch MSNBC to see the reaction there if the election goes for Romney.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 5:13:02 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego ('s)
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To: Steelfish

The way the pollsters are acting right now, I have to call bull**** that Romney and Barry are tied. I think it is being reported that Romney and Barry are tied in order to get Barry’s zombies to the polls in hopes of getting their messiah a decent showing and maybe getting it close enough that their “lawyers” can take over. JMO. I don’t trust any of the polls right now. They are ALL clueless.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 5:13:29 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
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To: Steelfish

If the country would pull its head out of its butt, this election would not be close. Personally, I think this will be the first one in a long time with no doubt as to who the winner is.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 5:15:19 PM PDT by DonaldC (A nation cannot stand in the absence of religious principle.)
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To: Steelfish
I certainly hope this is the case, but I'm not holding my breath. A 10 point victory margin by Romney would be amusing beyond words, just to watch the heads explode at MSNBC and Democratic Underground.

Heck, that'll happen if Romney wins, period. My personal take is that he has a 50% chance. Here's hoping...

5 posted on 11/03/2012 5:17:12 PM PDT by Joseph Harrolds
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To: Steelfish

Romney is going to win big!


6 posted on 11/03/2012 5:17:30 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
"I don’t trust any of the polls right now. They are ALL clueless."

That's definitely an issue for folks like me who don't pay to run our own polls.

7 posted on 11/03/2012 5:18:33 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Steelfish

If it over a four point difference I’m going to win a lot of bets. I made these bets months ago. (ps, Romney is NOT the answer to America’s ills but he will win big nonetheless)


8 posted on 11/03/2012 5:18:55 PM PDT by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 5:19:15 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I’m guessing 9%. PA might get called around 9PM and the last hour of CA and WA Dems stay home.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 5:21:38 PM PDT by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
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To: Steelfish

RCP was pretty accurate in 08 and 04. I dont want to get my hopes up. Demographic realities + buying votes = O2.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 5:23:40 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: struggle

“PA might get called around 9PM and the last hour of CA and WA Dems stay home.”

Let’s hope that happens for CA, but for WA we have mail in ballots so most voters have already voted.


12 posted on 11/03/2012 5:25:37 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: FReepers; Patriots


Bring It ON!

Freepers are Ready!

Please Support Your Forum Today!

13 posted on 11/03/2012 5:28:44 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: DonaldC

I agree with you. You can study these polls and still have no idea why the polls reached its conclusion. I personally think most of them are “made up”. The data can not be accurate. There is no way several random polls can have specific internals that mirror each other and yet the history shows it can not be accurate.
Also the people that alledgedly average these polls have a specific agenda. Take RCP. They pick and chose what polls are included and how often. A crappy poll from a relatively unknown Pollster can count as much as a Pollster with a previous “good” record. They also count the one poll into the entire average yet only count the rolling polls once despite they are posted daily. I have a favorite but regardless, the actions of the pollsters and the polling aggregators is clearly biased. they don’t even pretend to hide their agenda.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 5:36:54 PM PDT by DrDude (Governor of the 57th State)
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To: Steelfish
Gallup, ever vigilent, is making a last minute attempt to preserve the value of its public opinion polling business.

Two things ~ PEW says response rates are down to 9%. Muawiyah guesses that's due to Caller ID which makes it possible for folks to know who is trying to call them ~ so they can pick and chose!

Going beyond that Gallup has spent the last year asking their sample people about their sexual inclinations ~ no doubt to just find out how many gays are out there, but also to identify other characteristics that denote gays so they can, Voila! EXCLUDE THEM FROM THEIR REPORTS.

When we left off Gallup said there were about 3.5% gays in this country. With a 9% response rate (PEW report), and understanding gays always do the polls, that means they are overreported as much as 1100%. Same with their mates the Feminazis, and the Abortion business!

These three groups combined are probably 1% or less of the sample population, but they provide as much as 11% of the responses.

Gallup is telling us now that if they simply drop these people ~ who are probably also Democrats ~ from the results Romney, by reputation a straight guy, is sweeping all before him.

15 posted on 11/03/2012 5:38:57 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

WTH are you trying to say there?


16 posted on 11/03/2012 5:44:53 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: garjog

Why would they call East Coast States before the polls on the West Coast are closed?


17 posted on 11/03/2012 5:45:58 PM PDT by bjc (Check the data!!)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I think we are all tuning in to MSNBC - they may have their highest ratings ever :)


18 posted on 11/03/2012 5:47:07 PM PDT by Momto2 (I am praying for Israel...)
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To: bjc

People do not trust MSM or Obama. People are tired of hearing lies. Obama seems in over his head as President; not up for the job. Obama cannot work with a Republican House to solve problems and cannot negotiate properly or lead the country.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 5:49:02 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Most of the polls are based on huge Democrat turnout (2008+). Not going to happen. Obama is in trouble.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 5:49:46 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: muawiyah
Watching the reports of all the trouble in the Northeast from the storm I think it may be a blowout for MItt.
Thanks for all the great input. I was blown away by the Pew report. It explains alot. I hope we can put an end to polls like this as it seems to unduly shift opinions. I believe in England only internal polls are allowed about two weeks before an election. I like that idea. I also don't care if we know who won an election on that night. It doesn't matter as they don't take office the next day. I am against anything that can influence an election in these ways.
21 posted on 11/03/2012 5:50:03 PM PDT by prof.h.mandingo (Buck v. Bell (1927) An idea whose time has come (for extreme liberalism))
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To: FlingWingFlyer

The pollsters may be working for Democrats when they are not working on election polling. They are afraid they will not be hired in the future, if they report a Romney landslide coming now.


22 posted on 11/03/2012 5:51:07 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: Dilbert San Diego

***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***

He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 5:57:11 PM PDT by Gamecock (Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***

He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT by Gamecock (Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
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To: comebacknewt

look up PEW and 91%. look up GALLUP and sexual preference.


25 posted on 11/03/2012 6:03:18 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: trappedincanuckistan
There are real random selection polls, and then there are prognostications wherein the prognosticators refer to part of real random selection polls.

The so-called 'turnout models' are just short of being prognostications, and are certainly not polls ~ why anyone would pay attention to them as if they can predict is a very good question. With a 9% response rate, and no filter on the input of data from special interest groups, these things have little value.

I'd rather count pigeon droppings on a tiled courtyard.

26 posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:07 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Would u wait 4 hrs in line to vote if your candidate was losing.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 6:09:34 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: Donnafrflorida

Good point.


28 posted on 11/03/2012 6:10:36 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
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To: muawiyah

Most of the “polls” I’ve seen lately are weighted towards “registered voters” v “likely voters”. All part of the special sauce.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 6:11:47 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: comebacknewt

Bronco Bama habituates the Bath Houses?


30 posted on 11/03/2012 6:15:10 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: trappedincanuckistan
The differentiation between 'registered' and 'likely' is a derivative of a number of other factors ~ like did you ever vote, and if you voted, when did you vote last ~ and how about the time before that.

Your special interest folks know what to say.

31 posted on 11/03/2012 6:15:57 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

You obviously know way more about this than me. I just know that today I saw two polls where more than half the respondents were registered v likely, and I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 6:19:18 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan; muawiyah
...I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.

Could be poor screening, and it could be they're now sampling anyone that will finally answer the phone. Muawiyah's earlier point about Caller-ID is valid. If ours indicates "Blocked" or shows "Unknown Caller" from a number we've never called we don't answer.

33 posted on 11/03/2012 6:34:23 PM PDT by ken in texas (I was taught to respect my elders but it keeps getting harder to find any.)
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To: Steelfish

Bump!


34 posted on 11/03/2012 6:34:39 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: ken in texas

It just seems like these “pollsters” are doing everything they can to keep Obama competitive. Over estimating Democrat turn out. Including high numbers of registered voters in their polls. Relaxing screening to include registered voters as likely voters.


35 posted on 11/03/2012 6:41:11 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: gorush

Speaking of bets, is Vegas taking bets on the elections?


36 posted on 11/03/2012 7:00:08 PM PDT by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
"I want to watch MSNBC to see the reaction there if the election goes for Romney."

I'll have the DVR recording all activity on MSNBC as well as Current TV (Al Gore's nutty outfit). Should provide countless hours of entertainment.

37 posted on 11/03/2012 7:07:12 PM PDT by Nasher (Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Personally, I’m looking for Chrissie to first feel a tingle up his leg, then a tremor, and then have a full-fledged stroke on camera. The way to tell, is he will become more intelligible AFTER the stroke. . . .(evil grin)


38 posted on 11/03/2012 7:40:21 PM PDT by Salgak (Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?

He will likley go berserk castigating Harry Reid who just said he wants Romney to fail.

39 posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:30 PM PDT by stevem
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To: ken in texas

I think they have a list of those who answered and keep calling them again. Esp. when you know what they said the first time.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 10:42:15 PM PDT by DrDude (Governor of the 57th State)
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To: prof.h.mandingo

“I believe in England only internal polls are allowed about two weeks before an election. I like that idea. I also don’t care if we know who won an election on that night. It doesn’t matter as they don’t take office the next day. I am against anything that can influence an election in these ways. “

Excellent points.


41 posted on 11/03/2012 10:44:29 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
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