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Parsing the Polls [Why Romney Could Win By 5-10 points]
National Review ^
| November 03, 2012
| Michael G. Franc
Posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:11 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: muawiyah
Watching the reports of all the trouble in the Northeast from the storm I think it may be a blowout for MItt.
Thanks for all the great input. I was blown away by the Pew report. It explains alot. I hope we can put an end to polls like this as it seems to unduly shift opinions. I believe in England only internal polls are allowed about two weeks before an election. I like that idea. I also don't care if we know who won an election on that night. It doesn't matter as they don't take office the next day. I am against anything that can influence an election in these ways.
21
posted on
11/03/2012 5:50:03 PM PDT
by
prof.h.mandingo
(Buck v. Bell (1927) An idea whose time has come (for extreme liberalism))
To: FlingWingFlyer
The pollsters may be working for Democrats when they are not working on election polling. They are afraid they will not be hired in the future, if they report a Romney landslide coming now.
To: Dilbert San Diego
***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***
He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.
23
posted on
11/03/2012 5:57:11 PM PDT
by
Gamecock
(Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
To: Dilbert San Diego
***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***
He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.
24
posted on
11/03/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT
by
Gamecock
(Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
To: comebacknewt
look up PEW and 91%. look up GALLUP and sexual preference.
25
posted on
11/03/2012 6:03:18 PM PDT
by
muawiyah
To: trappedincanuckistan
There are real random selection polls, and then there are prognostications wherein the prognosticators refer to part of real random selection polls.
The so-called 'turnout models' are just short of being prognostications, and are certainly not polls ~ why anyone would pay attention to them as if they can predict is a very good question. With a 9% response rate, and no filter on the input of data from special interest groups, these things have little value.
I'd rather count pigeon droppings on a tiled courtyard.
26
posted on
11/03/2012 6:08:07 PM PDT
by
muawiyah
To: FlingWingFlyer
Would u wait 4 hrs in line to vote if your candidate was losing.
27
posted on
11/03/2012 6:09:34 PM PDT
by
Donnafrflorida
(Thru HIM all things are possible.)
To: Donnafrflorida
28
posted on
11/03/2012 6:10:36 PM PDT
by
FlingWingFlyer
(The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
To: muawiyah
Most of the “polls” I’ve seen lately are weighted towards “registered voters” v “likely voters”. All part of the special sauce.
To: comebacknewt
Bronco Bama habituates the Bath Houses?
30
posted on
11/03/2012 6:15:10 PM PDT
by
Paladin2
To: trappedincanuckistan
The differentiation between 'registered' and 'likely' is a derivative of a number of other factors ~ like did you ever vote, and if you voted, when did you vote last ~ and how about the time before that.
Your special interest folks know what to say.
31
posted on
11/03/2012 6:15:57 PM PDT
by
muawiyah
To: muawiyah
You obviously know way more about this than me. I just know that today I saw two polls where more than half the respondents were registered v likely, and I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.
To: trappedincanuckistan; muawiyah
...Ive read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.Could be poor screening, and it could be they're now sampling anyone that will finally answer the phone. Muawiyah's earlier point about Caller-ID is valid. If ours indicates "Blocked" or shows "Unknown Caller" from a number we've never called we don't answer.
33
posted on
11/03/2012 6:34:23 PM PDT
by
ken in texas
(I was taught to respect my elders but it keeps getting harder to find any.)
To: Steelfish
34
posted on
11/03/2012 6:34:39 PM PDT
by
Mr. Silverback
(Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
To: ken in texas
It just seems like these “pollsters” are doing everything they can to keep Obama competitive. Over estimating Democrat turn out. Including high numbers of registered voters in their polls. Relaxing screening to include registered voters as likely voters.
To: gorush
Speaking of bets, is Vegas taking bets on the elections?
To: Dilbert San Diego
"I want to watch MSNBC to see the reaction there if the election goes for Romney." I'll have the DVR recording all activity on MSNBC as well as Current TV (Al Gore's nutty outfit). Should provide countless hours of entertainment.
37
posted on
11/03/2012 7:07:12 PM PDT
by
Nasher
(Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car.)
To: Dilbert San Diego
Personally, I’m looking for Chrissie to first feel a tingle up his leg, then a tremor, and then have a full-fledged stroke on camera. The way to tell, is he will become more intelligible AFTER the stroke. . . .(evil grin)
38
posted on
11/03/2012 7:40:21 PM PDT
by
Salgak
(Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
To: Dilbert San Diego
If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night? He will likley go berserk castigating Harry Reid who just said he wants Romney to fail.
39
posted on
11/03/2012 7:50:30 PM PDT
by
stevem
To: ken in texas
I think they have a list of those who answered and keep calling them again. Esp. when you know what they said the first time.
40
posted on
11/03/2012 10:42:15 PM PDT
by
DrDude
(Governor of the 57th State)
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