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Parsing the Polls [Why Romney Could Win By 5-10 points]
National Review ^ | November 03, 2012 | Michael G. Franc

Posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:11 PM PDT by Steelfish

NOVEMBER 3 Parsing the Polls If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party. By Michael G. Franc

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

If anything, Gallup understates the case......

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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To: muawiyah
Watching the reports of all the trouble in the Northeast from the storm I think it may be a blowout for MItt.
Thanks for all the great input. I was blown away by the Pew report. It explains alot. I hope we can put an end to polls like this as it seems to unduly shift opinions. I believe in England only internal polls are allowed about two weeks before an election. I like that idea. I also don't care if we know who won an election on that night. It doesn't matter as they don't take office the next day. I am against anything that can influence an election in these ways.
21 posted on 11/03/2012 5:50:03 PM PDT by prof.h.mandingo (Buck v. Bell (1927) An idea whose time has come (for extreme liberalism))
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To: FlingWingFlyer

The pollsters may be working for Democrats when they are not working on election polling. They are afraid they will not be hired in the future, if they report a Romney landslide coming now.


22 posted on 11/03/2012 5:51:07 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: Dilbert San Diego

***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***

He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 5:57:11 PM PDT by Gamecock (Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***

He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT by Gamecock (Bayonets, Benghazi, Balls, Binders, Big Bird, Birth Control, BS.....)
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To: comebacknewt

look up PEW and 91%. look up GALLUP and sexual preference.


25 posted on 11/03/2012 6:03:18 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: trappedincanuckistan
There are real random selection polls, and then there are prognostications wherein the prognosticators refer to part of real random selection polls.

The so-called 'turnout models' are just short of being prognostications, and are certainly not polls ~ why anyone would pay attention to them as if they can predict is a very good question. With a 9% response rate, and no filter on the input of data from special interest groups, these things have little value.

I'd rather count pigeon droppings on a tiled courtyard.

26 posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:07 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Would u wait 4 hrs in line to vote if your candidate was losing.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 6:09:34 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: Donnafrflorida

Good point.


28 posted on 11/03/2012 6:10:36 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
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To: muawiyah

Most of the “polls” I’ve seen lately are weighted towards “registered voters” v “likely voters”. All part of the special sauce.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 6:11:47 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: comebacknewt

Bronco Bama habituates the Bath Houses?


30 posted on 11/03/2012 6:15:10 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: trappedincanuckistan
The differentiation between 'registered' and 'likely' is a derivative of a number of other factors ~ like did you ever vote, and if you voted, when did you vote last ~ and how about the time before that.

Your special interest folks know what to say.

31 posted on 11/03/2012 6:15:57 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

You obviously know way more about this than me. I just know that today I saw two polls where more than half the respondents were registered v likely, and I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 6:19:18 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan; muawiyah
...I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.

Could be poor screening, and it could be they're now sampling anyone that will finally answer the phone. Muawiyah's earlier point about Caller-ID is valid. If ours indicates "Blocked" or shows "Unknown Caller" from a number we've never called we don't answer.

33 posted on 11/03/2012 6:34:23 PM PDT by ken in texas (I was taught to respect my elders but it keeps getting harder to find any.)
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To: Steelfish

Bump!


34 posted on 11/03/2012 6:34:39 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: ken in texas

It just seems like these “pollsters” are doing everything they can to keep Obama competitive. Over estimating Democrat turn out. Including high numbers of registered voters in their polls. Relaxing screening to include registered voters as likely voters.


35 posted on 11/03/2012 6:41:11 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: gorush

Speaking of bets, is Vegas taking bets on the elections?


36 posted on 11/03/2012 7:00:08 PM PDT by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
"I want to watch MSNBC to see the reaction there if the election goes for Romney."

I'll have the DVR recording all activity on MSNBC as well as Current TV (Al Gore's nutty outfit). Should provide countless hours of entertainment.

37 posted on 11/03/2012 7:07:12 PM PDT by Nasher (Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Personally, I’m looking for Chrissie to first feel a tingle up his leg, then a tremor, and then have a full-fledged stroke on camera. The way to tell, is he will become more intelligible AFTER the stroke. . . .(evil grin)


38 posted on 11/03/2012 7:40:21 PM PDT by Salgak (Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?

He will likley go berserk castigating Harry Reid who just said he wants Romney to fail.

39 posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:30 PM PDT by stevem
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To: ken in texas

I think they have a list of those who answered and keep calling them again. Esp. when you know what they said the first time.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 10:42:15 PM PDT by DrDude (Governor of the 57th State)
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