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Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll - O49/R48 w/leaners (BRIT HUME WAS WRONG!)
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html ^ | Oct 29, 1012

Posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:51 PM PDT by profit_guy

On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong.

(Excerpt) Read more at images.politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; panic; skyisfalling
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1 posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:55 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states. Should we worry?


2 posted on 10/28/2012 11:24:15 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: garjog

Worry after you examine the internals of the poll, sample size, reputation of pollster, and finally who paid for the poll. Follow the money!


3 posted on 10/28/2012 11:29:35 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: profit_guy

3% independent??? I don’t think so... this poll is really whack in the way questions are worded. The internals show a great majority saying wrong track bad economy....by like 67 to 30. That doesn’t not make sense to then say oh but I am voting for the same track...


4 posted on 10/28/2012 11:29:53 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: garjog; LS; Ravi

It is not a battleground/state poll, it is a national poll called “Battleground”, and yes I am very concerned about it because Brit Hume spoke confidently on Sunday morning about this upcoming poll and that it would show Romney with a 5 pt lead - instead it shows Obama leading 49-48. Last week this same poll showed Romney leading 49-47. They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 11:32:09 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: garjog
I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states.

It's a NATIONAL poll, not just battleground states. Do you trust these guys more than Rasmussen or Gallup? If so, why?
6 posted on 10/28/2012 11:33:06 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: Nifster

It does NOT say “3% Independent”, it says 3% Undecided. If you go to Pg 8 you will see where it says 15% Independent - but I do not see the breakdown.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 11:36:55 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

you should ping Steelfish and you can have someone else to share your concerns about a poll making a within the MOE statistical fart.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 11:37:01 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

What are the internals of this poll? I haven’t seen any signs of movement for Obama. Not on the weekend. We’ll know more when Gallup comes out later today.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 11:37:18 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

I am not at all like Steelfish! However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf


10 posted on 10/28/2012 11:46:29 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: GLDNGUN

You tell me if they are any good?:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf


11 posted on 10/28/2012 11:49:04 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I did not watch the show. Are you sure he said that *this* poll would show a 5 point lead?

I did find this interview with Ed Goeas, one of the Battleground pollsters, who mentioned Romney winning by 5 points, but he did not specifically tie it to one of his polls.

http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge


12 posted on 10/28/2012 11:49:48 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 11:54:00 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

“Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.”

...read closer, and do some homework and you will see their final projected numbers are VERY close to the actual numbers (except for 2008, however they still picked the winner):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996

...these guys are highly respected Republican pollsters


14 posted on 10/29/2012 12:03:11 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Nifster

No, those they qualify as ‘leaners’ said they were independent, then were additionally asked what direction they lean.


15 posted on 10/29/2012 12:04:17 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: profit_guy

Ed Goeas is the Republican pollster, Celinda Lake is the Democrat pollster.

And again, the projection is their prediction, not the final poll number. They basically allocate the remaining undecideds when doing the projection.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 12:07:08 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

A majority say that the country is on the wrong track...yet almost half are voting for Obama again. We have soooooooooo many morons in this country. It’s just pathetic. At least people had the sense to throw Carter out after one term back then. Now... we just have space cadets apparent.


17 posted on 10/29/2012 12:07:31 AM PDT by SMCC1
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To: profit_guy

Look at question 6. That’s where Obama’s goose is cooked.


18 posted on 10/29/2012 12:09:53 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.

EXACTLY what I was going to point out. Additionally, looking at their internals...

Poll taken 10/22-10/25. Stale.

Next, anybody that said they were at least "somewhat likely" to vote was counted. Scientific? LOL Hardly.

Romney had better favorable and unfavorable numbers than Obama.

46% said they would vote for Obama, while 51% said they would either NOT for Obama or consider someone else.

Among those who are "definite" in their choice, Romney wins by 1 point. Only when they include those "likely" as well, does Obama go up by 1.

I'm sorry, but this poll is run by wanna-be amateurs.
19 posted on 10/29/2012 12:11:26 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: profit_guy

The total was 33% independent—upon further inquiry more than half, or 18%, described themselves as leaners one way or the other.


20 posted on 10/29/2012 12:12:37 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Arthurio

Yes that is the poll, and several people on here were talking about it today. It is a poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (Ed Goeas) and Lake Partners (Celinda Lake) and is called the Battleground poll (Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll).

http://www.tarrance.com/

Obviously the article/interview below with Ed Goeas is wrong - regarding Romney by 5 points.

http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge


21 posted on 10/29/2012 12:13:23 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy
do some homework and you will see their final projected numbers are VERY close to the actual numbers

Dude, do you know the difference between a poll and a prediction?
22 posted on 10/29/2012 12:15:33 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: profit_guy

I never trusted anything from politico


23 posted on 10/29/2012 12:17:45 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: profit_guy
Obviously the article/interview below with Ed Goeas is wrong - regarding Romney by 5 points.

Uh, how so? Goeas said the polls are currently "tight" but he wouldn't be surprised if Romney ended up winning by 5 points. Think. Battleground has one more poll to go. Goeas may take a look at his poll internals showing only 46% want to re-elect Obama (question 6), and allocate all of the undecideds to Romney.

24 posted on 10/29/2012 12:18:32 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: barmag25

You should never trust anything from Politico.

You have good insticts


25 posted on 10/29/2012 12:18:32 AM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: profit_guy

This poll was from 10/22-10/25. Brit was no doubt talking about the next poll coming out.


26 posted on 10/29/2012 12:22:50 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: GLDNGUN
Photobucket
27 posted on 10/29/2012 12:23:19 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: SMCC1

I hate to disagree with you that half the country is moronic.

Obama has a lock on union members (85-15), lazy non-union government workers (65-35) (I worked for the government for 12 years so I have inside knowledge of lazy workers), people collecting unemployment, disability, rent subsidies, heat subsidies, food stamps, free language translators, Obama cell phones, free condoms & contraception pills, aid to dependent children, teachers (80-20), trial lawyers etc etc etc.

When you add all of above, it is half of the country.


28 posted on 10/29/2012 12:23:47 AM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: Arthurio
Look I hope I am wrong. I absolutely despise Obama!! But hearing (and reading in the link/interview with Ed Goeas) that the poll was expected to come in at +5 for Romney, but comes in a +1 for Obama is NOT A GOOD THING.

From Twitter (2 hrs ago):

‏Michael Wilt ‏@michaelpwilt @NumbersMuncher The Battleground poll is actually posted.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher @michaelpwilt That's definitely not the R+5 Brit Hume mentioned...

29 posted on 10/29/2012 12:31:14 AM PDT by profit_guy
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The scorecard for the polling agencies I posted #27 only applies to the National vote, not state polling.

“The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October.”


30 posted on 10/29/2012 12:34:26 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: DarthVader

“This poll was from 10/22-10/25. Brit was no doubt talking about the next poll coming out.”

Brit Hume specifically said “the Battleground poll coming out tomorrow” - which is today


31 posted on 10/29/2012 12:35:08 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: GLDNGUN

This poll is a forgery. There are some glaring errors between this release and the release on the 22nd. Pair them side by side and you can see that someone it’s pulling a fast one. Hard to see at first. There is data missing, changed and different font types, and disclosure agreements that are missing from the 29th poll. It’s very easy to redirect a URL that you or I can’t see. the politico poll comes out at 5 am


32 posted on 10/29/2012 12:41:20 AM PDT by Michaelman1234
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To: garjog

No.


33 posted on 10/29/2012 12:44:11 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Michaelman1234

It looks to be a forgery. No link on the politicos website matches this


34 posted on 10/29/2012 12:45:46 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: profit_guy

And why should anyone care what Britt Hume had to say?


35 posted on 10/29/2012 12:46:01 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GLDNGUN

“I’m sorry, but this poll is run by wanna-be amateurs.”

What a foolish, foolish thing to say. These guys are HIGHLY respected Republican pollsters. Karl Rove speaks very highly of them too. In fact they do internal polling for many Republicans:

http://www.tarrance.com/clients/


36 posted on 10/29/2012 12:46:36 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

1996? Are you kidding?


37 posted on 10/29/2012 12:47:13 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: profit_guy

Where in that interview with Ed Goeas does he say that this poll would come in at Romney +5?

Again. Goeas said the race was currently “tight”, but he was expecting a Romney win by 5 points.

Period.


38 posted on 10/29/2012 12:47:13 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: GLDNGUN
It is amazing how many people can't wait to post a negative poll despite the fact that the two major polls have Romney with a 5+national lead.

Obama's approval numbers are going down, not up.

39 posted on 10/29/2012 12:49:15 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

“And why should anyone care what Britt Hume had to say?”

Because Brit Hume is on our side and was sitting across the table this morning on FNS from Karl Rove, Joe Trippi, Chris Wallace and Juan Williams.


40 posted on 10/29/2012 12:49:39 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: entropy12

No, it is 47%


41 posted on 10/29/2012 12:50:21 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: profit_guy
You have made 3 posts claiming that you are terrified by this poll and clearly want to be despite evidence to the contrary.

Alright, Obama is going to win, make you happy now?

42 posted on 10/29/2012 12:52:03 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: profit_guy

Wait ‘til Brit wakes up and sees this. I think he WILL comment. He doesn’t come across as someone who enjoys being made a fool of.


43 posted on 10/29/2012 12:52:41 AM PDT by jwb0581 (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: profit_guy

Karl Rove-LOL!


44 posted on 10/29/2012 12:52:59 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: profit_guy
You mean this Karl Rove?

The lead that Gov. Mitt Romney has carried in national polls since the first presidential debate should be reflected oon in state-by-state polls — indicating a potential Romney victory on election day, Karl Rove said on “Fox News Sunday.” Rove added that as the state polls reflect the national mood, Romney may begin to see states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, come into play for his electoral vote count.

45 posted on 10/29/2012 12:55:05 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Michaelman1234; barmag25

“This poll is a forgery.”

it does not appear to be a forgery to me....go here, then click on “Complete poll results”:

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html

...then compare that URL (Oct 22), with this URL (Oct 29):

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

...they appear the same...the only differnce being the date, and the missing pg 12 with the disclaimers


46 posted on 10/29/2012 12:59:56 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: fortheDeclaration; profit_guy; Arthurio

>> It is amazing how many people can’t wait to post a negative poll despite the fact that the two major polls have Romney with a 5+national lead.

Especially this guy.

Check out his posting record. You **never** find him posting threads, or even comments, on the Romney +5 polls.

He only shows up on the “obama is ahead” poll threads, where he can troll his anxiety bait past the school.

What really opened my eyes to his angle is his posting of that Battleground chart, implying their predictions in the past several elections are within tenths of a point of the real numbers.

Thanks Arthurio for pointing out that that last column in those charts is NOT actual poll numbers.

That’s EXTREMELY disingenuous, profit_guy. Despicable!


47 posted on 10/29/2012 1:00:44 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: All
The Tarrance Group website just shows the survey taken from October 15-18:

Tarrance

48 posted on 10/29/2012 1:02:14 AM PDT by BushMeister ("We are a nation that has a government - not the other way around." --Ronald Reagan)
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To: profit_guy

If the poll generally doesn’t get released till 5am how did you get it so early?


49 posted on 10/29/2012 1:07:44 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: fortheDeclaration

“Alright, Obama is going to win, make you happy now?”

don’t be an idiot, as i said above i absolutely despise Obama, i hate the traitorous son-of-a-bitch, and i am certainly no Steelfish!...but when i see a ‘bad poll’ by a pollster who i trust and is highly respected, yeah it concerns me...i would like nothing more than for it to be wrong

...let’s hope that Rasmussen and Gallup stay on track for us, because if they don’t then even you may be concerned


50 posted on 10/29/2012 1:07:59 AM PDT by profit_guy
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