Posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:51 PM PDT by profit_guy
On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong.
(Excerpt) Read more at images.politico.com ...
I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states. Should we worry?
Worry after you examine the internals of the poll, sample size, reputation of pollster, and finally who paid for the poll. Follow the money!
3% independent??? I don’t think so... this poll is really whack in the way questions are worded. The internals show a great majority saying wrong track bad economy....by like 67 to 30. That doesn’t not make sense to then say oh but I am voting for the same track...
It is not a battleground/state poll, it is a national poll called “Battleground”, and yes I am very concerned about it because Brit Hume spoke confidently on Sunday morning about this upcoming poll and that it would show Romney with a 5 pt lead - instead it shows Obama leading 49-48. Last week this same poll showed Romney leading 49-47. They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.
It does NOT say “3% Independent”, it says 3% Undecided. If you go to Pg 8 you will see where it says 15% Independent - but I do not see the breakdown.
you should ping Steelfish and you can have someone else to share your concerns about a poll making a within the MOE statistical fart.
What are the internals of this poll? I haven’t seen any signs of movement for Obama. Not on the weekend. We’ll know more when Gallup comes out later today.
I am not at all like Steelfish! However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
You tell me if they are any good?:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
I did not watch the show. Are you sure he said that *this* poll would show a 5 point lead?
I did find this interview with Ed Goeas, one of the Battleground pollsters, who mentioned Romney winning by 5 points, but he did not specifically tie it to one of his polls.
http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge
Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.
“Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.”
...read closer, and do some homework and you will see their final projected numbers are VERY close to the actual numbers (except for 2008, however they still picked the winner):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
...these guys are highly respected Republican pollsters
No, those they qualify as ‘leaners’ said they were independent, then were additionally asked what direction they lean.
Ed Goeas is the Republican pollster, Celinda Lake is the Democrat pollster.
And again, the projection is their prediction, not the final poll number. They basically allocate the remaining undecideds when doing the projection.
A majority say that the country is on the wrong track...yet almost half are voting for Obama again. We have soooooooooo many morons in this country. It’s just pathetic. At least people had the sense to throw Carter out after one term back then. Now... we just have space cadets apparent.
Look at question 6. That’s where Obama’s goose is cooked.
The total was 33% independent—upon further inquiry more than half, or 18%, described themselves as leaners one way or the other.
Yes that is the poll, and several people on here were talking about it today. It is a poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (Ed Goeas) and Lake Partners (Celinda Lake) and is called the Battleground poll (Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll).
Obviously the article/interview below with Ed Goeas is wrong - regarding Romney by 5 points.
http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge
I never trusted anything from politico
Uh, how so? Goeas said the polls are currently "tight" but he wouldn't be surprised if Romney ended up winning by 5 points. Think. Battleground has one more poll to go. Goeas may take a look at his poll internals showing only 46% want to re-elect Obama (question 6), and allocate all of the undecideds to Romney.
You should never trust anything from Politico.
You have good insticts
This poll was from 10/22-10/25. Brit was no doubt talking about the next poll coming out.
I hate to disagree with you that half the country is moronic.
Obama has a lock on union members (85-15), lazy non-union government workers (65-35) (I worked for the government for 12 years so I have inside knowledge of lazy workers), people collecting unemployment, disability, rent subsidies, heat subsidies, food stamps, free language translators, Obama cell phones, free condoms & contraception pills, aid to dependent children, teachers (80-20), trial lawyers etc etc etc.
When you add all of above, it is half of the country.
From Twitter (2 hrs ago):
Michael Wilt @michaelpwilt @NumbersMuncher The Battleground poll is actually posted.
NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher @michaelpwilt That's definitely not the R+5 Brit Hume mentioned...
The scorecard for the polling agencies I posted #27 only applies to the National vote, not state polling.
“The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October.”
“This poll was from 10/22-10/25. Brit was no doubt talking about the next poll coming out.”
Brit Hume specifically said “the Battleground poll coming out tomorrow” - which is today
This poll is a forgery. There are some glaring errors between this release and the release on the 22nd. Pair them side by side and you can see that someone it’s pulling a fast one. Hard to see at first. There is data missing, changed and different font types, and disclosure agreements that are missing from the 29th poll. It’s very easy to redirect a URL that you or I can’t see. the politico poll comes out at 5 am
No.
It looks to be a forgery. No link on the politicos website matches this
And why should anyone care what Britt Hume had to say?
“I’m sorry, but this poll is run by wanna-be amateurs.”
What a foolish, foolish thing to say. These guys are HIGHLY respected Republican pollsters. Karl Rove speaks very highly of them too. In fact they do internal polling for many Republicans:
http://www.tarrance.com/clients/
1996? Are you kidding?
Where in that interview with Ed Goeas does he say that this poll would come in at Romney +5?
Again. Goeas said the race was currently “tight”, but he was expecting a Romney win by 5 points.
Period.
Obama's approval numbers are going down, not up.
“And why should anyone care what Britt Hume had to say?”
Because Brit Hume is on our side and was sitting across the table this morning on FNS from Karl Rove, Joe Trippi, Chris Wallace and Juan Williams.
No, it is 47%
Alright, Obama is going to win, make you happy now?
Wait ‘til Brit wakes up and sees this. I think he WILL comment. He doesn’t come across as someone who enjoys being made a fool of.
Karl Rove-LOL!
The lead that Gov. Mitt Romney has carried in national polls since the first presidential debate should be reflected oon in state-by-state polls — indicating a potential Romney victory on election day, Karl Rove said on “Fox News Sunday.” Rove added that as the state polls reflect the national mood, Romney may begin to see states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, come into play for his electoral vote count.
“This poll is a forgery.”
it does not appear to be a forgery to me....go here, then click on “Complete poll results”:
http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html
...then compare that URL (Oct 22), with this URL (Oct 29):
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html
...they appear the same...the only differnce being the date, and the missing pg 12 with the disclaimers
>> It is amazing how many people can’t wait to post a negative poll despite the fact that the two major polls have Romney with a 5+national lead.
Especially this guy.
Check out his posting record. You **never** find him posting threads, or even comments, on the Romney +5 polls.
He only shows up on the “obama is ahead” poll threads, where he can troll his anxiety bait past the school.
What really opened my eyes to his angle is his posting of that Battleground chart, implying their predictions in the past several elections are within tenths of a point of the real numbers.
Thanks Arthurio for pointing out that that last column in those charts is NOT actual poll numbers.
That’s EXTREMELY disingenuous, profit_guy. Despicable!
If the poll generally doesn’t get released till 5am how did you get it so early?
“Alright, Obama is going to win, make you happy now?”
don’t be an idiot, as i said above i absolutely despise Obama, i hate the traitorous son-of-a-bitch, and i am certainly no Steelfish!...but when i see a ‘bad poll’ by a pollster who i trust and is highly respected, yeah it concerns me...i would like nothing more than for it to be wrong
...let’s hope that Rasmussen and Gallup stay on track for us, because if they don’t then even you may be concerned
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