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Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll - O49/R48 w/leaners (BRIT HUME WAS WRONG!)
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html ^ | Oct 29, 1012

Posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:51 PM PDT by profit_guy

On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong.

(Excerpt) Read more at images.politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; panic; skyisfalling
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1 posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:55 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states. Should we worry?


2 posted on 10/28/2012 11:24:15 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: garjog

Worry after you examine the internals of the poll, sample size, reputation of pollster, and finally who paid for the poll. Follow the money!


3 posted on 10/28/2012 11:29:35 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: profit_guy

3% independent??? I don’t think so... this poll is really whack in the way questions are worded. The internals show a great majority saying wrong track bad economy....by like 67 to 30. That doesn’t not make sense to then say oh but I am voting for the same track...


4 posted on 10/28/2012 11:29:53 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: garjog; LS; Ravi

It is not a battleground/state poll, it is a national poll called “Battleground”, and yes I am very concerned about it because Brit Hume spoke confidently on Sunday morning about this upcoming poll and that it would show Romney with a 5 pt lead - instead it shows Obama leading 49-48. Last week this same poll showed Romney leading 49-47. They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 11:32:09 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: garjog
I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states.

It's a NATIONAL poll, not just battleground states. Do you trust these guys more than Rasmussen or Gallup? If so, why?
6 posted on 10/28/2012 11:33:06 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: Nifster

It does NOT say “3% Independent”, it says 3% Undecided. If you go to Pg 8 you will see where it says 15% Independent - but I do not see the breakdown.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 11:36:55 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

you should ping Steelfish and you can have someone else to share your concerns about a poll making a within the MOE statistical fart.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 11:37:01 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

What are the internals of this poll? I haven’t seen any signs of movement for Obama. Not on the weekend. We’ll know more when Gallup comes out later today.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 11:37:18 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

I am not at all like Steelfish! However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf


10 posted on 10/28/2012 11:46:29 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: GLDNGUN

You tell me if they are any good?:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf


11 posted on 10/28/2012 11:49:04 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I did not watch the show. Are you sure he said that *this* poll would show a 5 point lead?

I did find this interview with Ed Goeas, one of the Battleground pollsters, who mentioned Romney winning by 5 points, but he did not specifically tie it to one of his polls.

http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge


12 posted on 10/28/2012 11:49:48 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 11:54:00 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

“Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.”

...read closer, and do some homework and you will see their final projected numbers are VERY close to the actual numbers (except for 2008, however they still picked the winner):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996

...these guys are highly respected Republican pollsters


14 posted on 10/29/2012 12:03:11 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Nifster

No, those they qualify as ‘leaners’ said they were independent, then were additionally asked what direction they lean.


15 posted on 10/29/2012 12:04:17 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: profit_guy

Ed Goeas is the Republican pollster, Celinda Lake is the Democrat pollster.

And again, the projection is their prediction, not the final poll number. They basically allocate the remaining undecideds when doing the projection.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 12:07:08 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

A majority say that the country is on the wrong track...yet almost half are voting for Obama again. We have soooooooooo many morons in this country. It’s just pathetic. At least people had the sense to throw Carter out after one term back then. Now... we just have space cadets apparent.


17 posted on 10/29/2012 12:07:31 AM PDT by SMCC1
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To: profit_guy

Look at question 6. That’s where Obama’s goose is cooked.


18 posted on 10/29/2012 12:09:53 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.

EXACTLY what I was going to point out. Additionally, looking at their internals...

Poll taken 10/22-10/25. Stale.

Next, anybody that said they were at least "somewhat likely" to vote was counted. Scientific? LOL Hardly.

Romney had better favorable and unfavorable numbers than Obama.

46% said they would vote for Obama, while 51% said they would either NOT for Obama or consider someone else.

Among those who are "definite" in their choice, Romney wins by 1 point. Only when they include those "likely" as well, does Obama go up by 1.

I'm sorry, but this poll is run by wanna-be amateurs.
19 posted on 10/29/2012 12:11:26 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: profit_guy

The total was 33% independent—upon further inquiry more than half, or 18%, described themselves as leaners one way or the other.


20 posted on 10/29/2012 12:12:37 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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