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Obama ahead in three key U.S. states, poll shows
townhall.com ^

Posted on 08/01/2012 7:23:14 AM PDT by tsowellfan

President Barack Obama has the edge over Mitt Romney in three key battleground states in large part because voters find him more likable than the Republican challenger, a poll released on Wednesday found.

Quinnipiac University's survey of more than 3,500 likely voters in the November 6 U.S. election found Obama ahead by 11 percentage points in Pennsylvania (53 to 42 percent), and 6 percentage points in both Ohio (50 to 44 percent) and Florida (51 to 45 percent). Obama won all three states in the 2008 presidential election.

At least 50 percent of respondents in the three states expressed a "favorable" opinion of Obama compared to about 40 percent for Romney, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of about plus or minus 2.9 percentage points...

(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; election2012
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1 posted on 08/01/2012 7:23:16 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: tsowellfan

This is bull$hit.


2 posted on 08/01/2012 7:24:45 AM PDT by Renegade
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To: tsowellfan

3,500 likely voters in Detroit,Chicago and New York.


3 posted on 08/01/2012 7:25:15 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: tsowellfan

We’ve got to outnumber the freeloading, Obama cultists at the polls in November. If you care about America, VOTE!!


4 posted on 08/01/2012 7:25:48 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The NRA did not create James "The Joker" Holmes. Harvey Weinstein's Hollywood did.)
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To: Renegade

I agree. This guy is about as “likeable” as a pile of steaming dog-do. Carter was actually “likeable” and he got his ass handed to him.


5 posted on 08/01/2012 7:26:11 AM PDT by henkster (We're the slaves of the phony leaders...)
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To: tsowellfan

If those numbers are anywhere near accurate regarding how this election will go, we may as well as load the magazines and don the web gear now because this place if over for all time.


6 posted on 08/01/2012 7:26:50 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: tsowellfan

Bravo Sierra...

this is pure propaganda.


7 posted on 08/01/2012 7:26:50 AM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: Renegade

They need Obama way ahead in the polls ,so when Romney wins they can take to the streets and even have Holder overturn the election


8 posted on 08/01/2012 7:28:55 AM PDT by molson209
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To: tsowellfan
Would love to see Pennsylvania stick it to him....

IIRC, he only won it because he calc'd the numbers...and concentrated himself in Philadelphia.

9 posted on 08/01/2012 7:33:58 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: tsowellfan
in large part because voters find him more likable than the Republican challenger

It doesn't matter that they foreclosed on my house. That I have been out of work for a year & a half. That my taxes are through the (previously,unforeclosed upon) roof........I just plain LIKE the guy

Signed,

Likely Voter

10 posted on 08/01/2012 7:34:19 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: tsowellfan

If these states are stupid enough to vote for four more years of this Marxist dictator’s ruining of the USA, they should be totally boycotted by people living in saner places.

This is the same problem that Europe has. The parasites are feeding off the producers, and the producers are getting really sick of it.


11 posted on 08/01/2012 7:35:35 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: kingattax

The poll results all slant favorably toward Democrats (Obama & Senate), indicating the sample is tilted one way.


12 posted on 08/01/2012 7:35:35 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: tsowellfan

Thank you sir, may I have another?


13 posted on 08/01/2012 7:35:50 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: tsowellfan
It wouldn't surprise me if true. I think folks can sense that Mitt Romney stands for Mitt Romney, just like any other liberal. He has no message. Running against something is fine for the small percentage of true believers. But to win, and change this country, he would have to stand for something different from what we have now. And his record suggests only shades of difference.
14 posted on 08/01/2012 7:35:52 AM PDT by mikeus_maximus (I won't vote for Romney, period. Voting for "the lesser of two evils" is still voting for evil.)
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To: tsowellfan

If you poll democrats the Kenyan will win every time!!!


15 posted on 08/01/2012 7:36:52 AM PDT by ontap
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To: tsowellfan

I am pretty sure they oversampled DEMs by 7-9% in these polls, which is completely out of balance with the current makeup of the “likely voters”.


16 posted on 08/01/2012 7:37:06 AM PDT by Laserman
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To: tsowellfan

Obama may be ahead in Pennsylvania and could be ahead in Ohio, but there is no way Obama is ahead in Florida.


17 posted on 08/01/2012 7:37:15 AM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: tsowellfan
Quinnipiac University's survey

STOPPED reading right there.

18 posted on 08/01/2012 7:37:15 AM PDT by Random_User_250
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To: tsowellfan

Is this from the same idiotic people that said South Carolina is a toss-up state?? These polls are BS so the Obama-media can change peoples opinions or make Republicans not go to the polls.


19 posted on 08/01/2012 7:38:41 AM PDT by jakerobins
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To: tsowellfan

...nd 6 percentage points in both Ohio (50 to 44 percent) and Florida (51 to 45 percent).

Florida??? Hahahahahaha.
Stopped reading right there - this isn’t a poll at all, it is propaganda.
Florida is going to give Obama Hussein the BOOT - along with a few other things. :)


20 posted on 08/01/2012 7:42:48 AM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: tsowellfan

We remain slaves to the whims of the GOP elite if, as way too many do, we instantly claim a pooll we don’t like as BS and embrace everything that Rasmussen says. (BTW, Rasmussen has been one of the lowest rated pollsters the last two election cycles).

The GOP elite KNOW that many of us will not look at facts, no matter how much we don’t like them. They know that if we hear something we don’t like we will dismiss it. Well, QP was one of the highest rated pollsters the last two election cycles.

Now I always maintain that polls this far out, even the ones you like, are pretty meaningless. But to try and salve the pain of bad facts by sitting around clucking like a bunch of hens that it is all BS will kill conservatism faster than Karl Rove ever could.

This poll indicates Romney is in trouble. Romney is a terrible candidate. Get used to it.

It’s time we lead and stop being lead.


21 posted on 08/01/2012 7:44:23 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: henkster

He’s sooooo likable. It must be his great sense of humor and heart warming smile. Or perhaps it’s his pleasant response to criticism. Yeah, that’s it. Gosh, who couldn’t like the guy?


22 posted on 08/01/2012 7:45:31 AM PDT by Right Brother
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To: tsowellfan

Q Poll Party ID: FL D+8, OH D+9

Actual Gallup Party ID: FL D+1.8, OH D+1.5

Q Poll Obama/McCain 2008 voters: FL Obama +13, OH Obama +15

Actual 2008 Results: FL Obama +3, OH, Obama +4.6


23 posted on 08/01/2012 7:47:36 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tsowellfan
"...poll shows..."

Indeed. I'll just bet it does.

Of course, we won't mention the "weighting" that all "credible" polling firms use nowadays—as much as a "+9" (most commonly cited during the '12 cycle).

Weighting refers to how many more Democrats are polled compared to Republicans. This practice just keeps the polling "fair & accurate," as it merely reflects how many more Democrats there are than Republicans across the electorate.

So with a "+9 Democrat weighting", if the pollster asks a question of 100 registered Republicans, 109 Democrats will be asked just to keep the poll's results "representative" of the voting electorate. However, in the highly fluid, ever-shifting ebb and flow of American Politics, when the Democrats can lose the 2010 Mid-Terms as badly as they did, one has to question just how "accurate" this whole set of assumptions remains as we speak.

What if 20% of the Blacks who voted for O'Buttface last time just don't show up in November because they diasgree with O'Bunga on same-sex marriage?

What if 32% of the women who voted Obama on '08 now feel he's not the right choice for American business, the economy, or for National Security?

What if both these above "What-ifs" turn out to be extremely conservative, while the GOP voting bloc has grown to 140% of what it was in '08 as a result of 4 years of America's first openly Communist, Muslim-sympathizing, American business-hating President?

If anything like these scenarios is more "accurately representative" of the current American Electorate than the old "+9 Democrat" garbage, O'Bunghole's supposed "lead" in 3 states could actually spell doom for the unqualified failure of a criminal.

Oh, dear Lord, these things I pray.

;-\

24 posted on 08/01/2012 7:49:20 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Dedicated to the removal of the Islamic Regime in America")
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To: tsowellfan

Quinnipiac University, CBS News, New York Times: To collaborate on 2012 presidential election surveys in six key swing states

7/24/2012

Contact: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201
Rubenstein Associates Inc. Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

Quinnipiac University, CBS News and The New York Times announced today a joint project to conduct polling during the 2012 presidential campaign. The polls will be conducted between July and October in six key swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado. The polls will provide insight into the presidential race by measuring the opinions of likely voters about the candidates and the issues.

“CBS News is pleased to join The New York Times and Quinnipiac University in this exciting and important project,” said Sarah Dutton, Director of Surveys, CBS News. “CBS News, The New York Times and Quinnipiac University all have proven track records of conducting polls that maintain the same rigorous standards. The information to come out of these polls will be invaluable during the election.”

“Quinnipiac University is honored to work with The New York Times and CBS News, historically two of the finest media organizations in the nation, to conduct in-depth surveys of voter opinion in six critical swing states and to present our findings as only The Times and CBS News can do,” said Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“The 2012 presidential election may be decided by voters in any of these six states,” said Kate Phillips, editor of News Surveys and Election Analysis, The New York Times. “We look forward to working with CBS News and Quinnipiac University to provide our readers with this important information.”

CBS News and The New York Times entered into the first television-newspaper polling partnership in history in 1975 and have jointly conducted polls on a near-monthly basis since then. In addition to national polls, CBS News and The New York Times have produced polling data by surveying specific sectors of the public, including African Americans, Catholics, Hispanics, Tea Party supporters, the long-term unemployed and residents of the Gulf Coast, among others. The two organizations have also conducted polls in geographic areas such as New York City, New York State, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Iowa.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For 20 years, the poll has established a record for accuracy, based on the highest standards and large sample sizes, allowing for detailed analysis of sub-groups. Insightful questions have helped shape public debate on issues. A New York State poll on attitudes about use of hands-free cell phone while driving, for example, led to passage of the first law in the nation requiring use of hands-free devices while driving.

About CBS News

CBS News is the news and information division of CBS Corporation, dedicated to providing the best in journalism under standards it pioneered at the dawn of radio and television and continues to set in today’s digital age. Headquartered in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, CBS News includes bureaus across the globe and influential, critically acclaimed programs providing news making features and interviews, investigative reports, analysis and breaking news 24 hours a day, seven days a week. CBS News utilizes a multi-platform model for news distribution across television (CBS Television Network), radio (CBS Radio News), the Internet (CBSNews.com) and hand-held devices (CBS Mobile). CBS News recently launched its new morning broadcast, CBS THIS MORNING, which joins award-winning programs 60 MINUTES, THE CBS EVENING NEWS WITH SCOTT PELLEY, 48 HOURS MYSTERY, FACE THE NATION and CBS SUNDAY MORNING.

About Quinnipiac University

Quinnipiac is a private, coeducational, nonsectarian institution in Hamden, Conn., 90 minutes north of New York City and two hours from Boston. The university enrolls 6,200 full-time undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students in 58 undergraduate and more than 20 graduate programs of study in its School of Business and Engineering, School of Communications, School of Education, School of Health Sciences, School of Law, Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, School of Nursing and College of Arts and Sciences. Quinnipiac consistently ranks among the top regional universities in the North in U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges issue. The 2009 issue of U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges named Quinnipiac as the top up-and-coming school with master’s programs in the Northern Region. Quinnipiac also is recognized in Princeton Review’s “The Best 376 Colleges.” For more information, please visit www.quinnipiac.edu.

About The New York Times Company

The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT), a leading global, multimedia news and information company with 2011 revenues of $2.3 billion, includes The New York Times, the International Herald Tribune, The Boston Globe, NYTimes.com, BostonGlobe.com, Boston.com, About.com and related properties. The Company’s core purpose is to enhance society by creating, collecting and distributing high-quality news, information and entertainment.

For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.


25 posted on 08/01/2012 7:51:59 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

OK, since you obviously are either a Romney hater, a Paul Bot or other since you have some much intelligence we all seem to lack just who do you suggest we vote for??

Like it or not the greater proportion of the electorate associated with the GOP has chosen Romney, like it or not. So you and others constant whining and chipping away serves no purpose to me except trying to draw attention to yourselves.

Just a quick civics lesson for you, we have a thing called CONGRESS that passes laws, taxes etc. Maybe you have given in to the Imperial nature of the current resident.

Whatever, sure, you can whine like a petulant teenage girl

What is the alternative at this stage you propose Professor?


26 posted on 08/01/2012 7:52:15 AM PDT by 100American (Knowledge is knowing how, Wisdom is knowing when)
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To: tsowellfan

Early voting Hamilton County, Tennessee..Republican 218,000, and Demorats 98,000..We need to do this everywhere


27 posted on 08/01/2012 7:54:06 AM PDT by rxtn41
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To: Gargantua
Quinnipiac University was a third rate college was I took a course there one summer. It was a joke academically, just a mill. If they had a vision they could have become an online university.
They are a democratic dog polling company. Keep our name in lights to get more business. Hey QU you didn't make that university.
28 posted on 08/01/2012 7:55:53 AM PDT by Kozy (Calling Al Gore)
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To: tsowellfan

Obama is a Socialist/Communist cum community organizer...I would only vote for an American who loves his country....Obama doesn’t fit that description.


29 posted on 08/01/2012 7:56:40 AM PDT by yoe (Vote for your Country, not a political party.)
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To: tsowellfan

Compared to what...


30 posted on 08/01/2012 7:59:12 AM PDT by DonkeyBonker (Oppose Senate Amendment S.A. 2575! I need more than 10 rounds in my magazine.)
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To: tsowellfan
Full Poll Results at scribd.com
31 posted on 08/01/2012 8:00:31 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: tsowellfan
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% … (Massive oversampling of Democrats)
32 posted on 08/01/2012 8:01:13 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the collectivists.)
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To: tsowellfan

This should explain it to some degree...


33 posted on 08/01/2012 8:05:00 AM PDT by Iron Munro ("Jiggle the Handle for Barry!")
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To: bill1952

You act like Florida did not go for Obama in 2008. Sure it may not in 2012 but with Romney as the candidate Florida might say enough of the liberal Republicans.


34 posted on 08/01/2012 8:06:12 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GO TO CHIC-FIL-A 1 AUGUST FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH OR DINNER (OR ALL))
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To: tsowellfan

Romney still has a chance to win a very close election.

The notion he will win in a blow out is a pipe dream though. Demographics now make it impossible for any GOP candidate to pull it off.

Bush - Dukakis was the last one ever.


35 posted on 08/01/2012 8:06:16 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Renegade

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/


36 posted on 08/01/2012 8:11:13 AM PDT by RedhairRedhair (I STILL love my (scab made) Toyota)
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To: 100American
People ignore the fact that reince preibus and the gop/e stacked the deck... they make the rules... they leave certain liberal states as open primary states... change the rules on how electors are dispersed... they kept Newt and Santorum off the ballot in two IMPORTANT states before Florida... and in the very beginning... how they granted an Iowa win to romney... all the surge momentum went to romney... then oopsie... Santorum actually won. More gop primary voters voted for someone other than mitt... even after Florida. He was ordained... not elected.

LLS

37 posted on 08/01/2012 8:14:29 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: tsowellfan

This is important. Likely voters in battleground states.

Only a optimist would expect the GOP to take Pennsylvania - the urban areas are too large, and too corrupt; hell, the late, unlamented Murtha won his district after grossly insulting his constituents.

But Ohio and Florida are “must wins” for Romney.

Of course, the actual presidential election has not started yet. Wait and see, I guess.


38 posted on 08/01/2012 8:16:36 AM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: mikeus_maximus
I suspect that Romney is doing a little rope-a-dope and waiting until after the convention.
The election laws limit his sending until he is the official candidate. Obama acts under the guise of the President is doing his job.
Romney has not been spending the way Obama has and may have more money to run ads closer to the election when Obama is low on funds.
39 posted on 08/01/2012 8:18:57 AM PDT by ozdragon
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To: tsowellfan

I call complete BS, Obama is not up 11 points in PA.. his lead, if it exists at all, is well under 5.


40 posted on 08/01/2012 8:25:03 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Uncle Slayton
This ‘stump jumper’ in Pennsylvania doesn't believe he is ahead in this state either...

msm prints only what they want to print...

have you seen the article on Mrs. Romney cost of clothing VS the cost of clothing of Michelle???? pure B.......S....as I said...MSM prints what they want..so believe NOTHING FROM THEM...

OFF FOR LUNCH AT CHICK~FILA...GREENSBURG, PA.♥

41 posted on 08/01/2012 8:27:29 AM PDT by haircutter
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To: Sacajaweau

I live in PA, and I honestly don’t think Obama can win the state... I really don’t. PA is blue dog democrat territory, and Obama has been spitting in their faces for 4 years.

If Obama has a lead here at all, its in low single digits.

I can’t find anyone who is a swing voter here planning to vote for him, and many life long democrats I know are openly stating the guys a failure and they have no intention of voting for him.

11 Points is absolute CRAP.


42 posted on 08/01/2012 8:29:46 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: haircutter

I sure hope you are right. But, as a fellow Pennsylvanian, I have to remind you of three major problems: Philly, Harrisburg, and York. All three cities were handed over to blacks and hispanics. Hence, all three will deliver 90% of their votes to Obama. And those are huge numbers.


43 posted on 08/01/2012 8:39:25 AM PDT by hampdenkid
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To: Little Ray

You write off PA too easily my friend, I fully expect PA to go red election night. If OBama holds PA, it will be only by a few points.

You declare PA a Mass or NY at your peril, this state is NOT remotely those. Philly area, perhaps, but not the state. Most dems here are blue collar, blue dogs, they are not water carrying commies. Fast Eddie is no longer in the Governor’s mansion, Republicans control the state legislature and most state offices. Don’t think for one minute this is a liberal state its not.

We also sent Toomey to Washington 2 years ago, and that internet video of the Congressman ranting against red tape? That guys from a democratic bastion of ERIE, PA... don’t think that because the state has a lot of registered democrats that republicans don’t or can’t win here. I think a lot of folks will be surprised in November. If Obama holds the state, it will only be by the slimmest of margins.


44 posted on 08/01/2012 8:40:29 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: tsowellfan
people like this guy?

45 posted on 08/01/2012 8:46:32 AM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: Right Brother

46 posted on 08/01/2012 8:49:34 AM PDT by Baynative (A man's admiration for absolute government is proportionate to the contempt he feels for others)
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To: tsowellfan

Florida - Oversampled Democrat by 9 points
Ohio - Oversampled Democrat by 8 points
Pennsylvania - Oversampled Democrat by 6 points

In the same poll, other races were asked about:

FL Senate - Dem beat GOP by 7 points
Ohio Senate - Dem beats GOP by 12 points
PA Senate - Dem beats Gop by 18 points

Wow....if you ask democrats who they plan to vote for, it turns out that they vote democrat.

The real story...Obama is underperforming, when compared to these senate candidates.


47 posted on 08/01/2012 8:53:41 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: HamiltonJay

New York state is surprisingly “red” but NYC is too big and too powerful - so New York is a blue state. NYC even has a “Republican” mayor and is still horrendously liberal.

Same applies to Pennsylvania. Most of Pennsylvania is conservative, but the urban areas, like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia outweigh the rest of the state - especially when there is a 110% turn out in some Philadelphia districts. It would certainly be a pleasant surprise to see PA go red, but I’d think long and hard on the resources I’d commit to campaigning in PA.


48 posted on 08/01/2012 8:57:40 AM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: ari-freedom
People like this guy?

(People didn't know this guy)...perhaps now they do...he is America's biggest racist...not POTUS but PFBO.

49 posted on 08/01/2012 8:58:26 AM PDT by yoe (Vote for your Country, not a political party.)
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To: tsowellfan

Quinnipuke is wrong.


50 posted on 08/01/2012 8:59:09 AM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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