This should explain it to some degree...
Posted on 08/01/2012 7:23:14 AM PDT by tsowellfan
President Barack Obama has the edge over Mitt Romney in three key battleground states in large part because voters find him more likable than the Republican challenger, a poll released on Wednesday found.
Quinnipiac University's survey of more than 3,500 likely voters in the November 6 U.S. election found Obama ahead by 11 percentage points in Pennsylvania (53 to 42 percent), and 6 percentage points in both Ohio (50 to 44 percent) and Florida (51 to 45 percent). Obama won all three states in the 2008 presidential election.
At least 50 percent of respondents in the three states expressed a "favorable" opinion of Obama compared to about 40 percent for Romney, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of about plus or minus 2.9 percentage points...
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
We remain slaves to the whims of the GOP elite if, as way too many do, we instantly claim a pooll we don’t like as BS and embrace everything that Rasmussen says. (BTW, Rasmussen has been one of the lowest rated pollsters the last two election cycles).
The GOP elite KNOW that many of us will not look at facts, no matter how much we don’t like them. They know that if we hear something we don’t like we will dismiss it. Well, QP was one of the highest rated pollsters the last two election cycles.
Now I always maintain that polls this far out, even the ones you like, are pretty meaningless. But to try and salve the pain of bad facts by sitting around clucking like a bunch of hens that it is all BS will kill conservatism faster than Karl Rove ever could.
This poll indicates Romney is in trouble. Romney is a terrible candidate. Get used to it.
It’s time we lead and stop being lead.
He’s sooooo likable. It must be his great sense of humor and heart warming smile. Or perhaps it’s his pleasant response to criticism. Yeah, that’s it. Gosh, who couldn’t like the guy?
Q Poll Party ID: FL D+8, OH D+9
Actual Gallup Party ID: FL D+1.8, OH D+1.5
Q Poll Obama/McCain 2008 voters: FL Obama +13, OH Obama +15
Actual 2008 Results: FL Obama +3, OH, Obama +4.6
Indeed. I'll just bet it does.
Of course, we won't mention the "weighting" that all "credible" polling firms use nowadays—as much as a "+9" (most commonly cited during the '12 cycle).
Weighting refers to how many more Democrats are polled compared to Republicans. This practice just keeps the polling "fair & accurate," as it merely reflects how many more Democrats there are than Republicans across the electorate.
So with a "+9 Democrat weighting", if the pollster asks a question of 100 registered Republicans, 109 Democrats will be asked just to keep the poll's results "representative" of the voting electorate. However, in the highly fluid, ever-shifting ebb and flow of American Politics, when the Democrats can lose the 2010 Mid-Terms as badly as they did, one has to question just how "accurate" this whole set of assumptions remains as we speak.
What if 20% of the Blacks who voted for O'Buttface last time just don't show up in November because they diasgree with O'Bunga on same-sex marriage?
What if 32% of the women who voted Obama on '08 now feel he's not the right choice for American business, the economy, or for National Security?
What if both these above "What-ifs" turn out to be extremely conservative, while the GOP voting bloc has grown to 140% of what it was in '08 as a result of 4 years of America's first openly Communist, Muslim-sympathizing, American business-hating President?
If anything like these scenarios is more "accurately representative" of the current American Electorate than the old "+9 Democrat" garbage, O'Bunghole's supposed "lead" in 3 states could actually spell doom for the unqualified failure of a criminal.
Oh, dear Lord, these things I pray.
;-\
Quinnipiac University, CBS News, New York Times: To collaborate on 2012 presidential election surveys in six key swing states
7/24/2012
Contact: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201
Rubenstein Associates Inc. Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
Quinnipiac University, CBS News and The New York Times announced today a joint project to conduct polling during the 2012 presidential campaign. The polls will be conducted between July and October in six key swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado. The polls will provide insight into the presidential race by measuring the opinions of likely voters about the candidates and the issues.
“CBS News is pleased to join The New York Times and Quinnipiac University in this exciting and important project,” said Sarah Dutton, Director of Surveys, CBS News. “CBS News, The New York Times and Quinnipiac University all have proven track records of conducting polls that maintain the same rigorous standards. The information to come out of these polls will be invaluable during the election.”
“Quinnipiac University is honored to work with The New York Times and CBS News, historically two of the finest media organizations in the nation, to conduct in-depth surveys of voter opinion in six critical swing states and to present our findings as only The Times and CBS News can do,” said Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“The 2012 presidential election may be decided by voters in any of these six states,” said Kate Phillips, editor of News Surveys and Election Analysis, The New York Times. “We look forward to working with CBS News and Quinnipiac University to provide our readers with this important information.”
CBS News and The New York Times entered into the first television-newspaper polling partnership in history in 1975 and have jointly conducted polls on a near-monthly basis since then. In addition to national polls, CBS News and The New York Times have produced polling data by surveying specific sectors of the public, including African Americans, Catholics, Hispanics, Tea Party supporters, the long-term unemployed and residents of the Gulf Coast, among others. The two organizations have also conducted polls in geographic areas such as New York City, New York State, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Iowa.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For 20 years, the poll has established a record for accuracy, based on the highest standards and large sample sizes, allowing for detailed analysis of sub-groups. Insightful questions have helped shape public debate on issues. A New York State poll on attitudes about use of hands-free cell phone while driving, for example, led to passage of the first law in the nation requiring use of hands-free devices while driving.
About CBS News
CBS News is the news and information division of CBS Corporation, dedicated to providing the best in journalism under standards it pioneered at the dawn of radio and television and continues to set in today’s digital age. Headquartered in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, CBS News includes bureaus across the globe and influential, critically acclaimed programs providing news making features and interviews, investigative reports, analysis and breaking news 24 hours a day, seven days a week. CBS News utilizes a multi-platform model for news distribution across television (CBS Television Network), radio (CBS Radio News), the Internet (CBSNews.com) and hand-held devices (CBS Mobile). CBS News recently launched its new morning broadcast, CBS THIS MORNING, which joins award-winning programs 60 MINUTES, THE CBS EVENING NEWS WITH SCOTT PELLEY, 48 HOURS MYSTERY, FACE THE NATION and CBS SUNDAY MORNING.
About Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac is a private, coeducational, nonsectarian institution in Hamden, Conn., 90 minutes north of New York City and two hours from Boston. The university enrolls 6,200 full-time undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students in 58 undergraduate and more than 20 graduate programs of study in its School of Business and Engineering, School of Communications, School of Education, School of Health Sciences, School of Law, Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, School of Nursing and College of Arts and Sciences. Quinnipiac consistently ranks among the top regional universities in the North in U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges issue. The 2009 issue of U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges named Quinnipiac as the top up-and-coming school with master’s programs in the Northern Region. Quinnipiac also is recognized in Princeton Review’s “The Best 376 Colleges.” For more information, please visit www.quinnipiac.edu.
About The New York Times Company
The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT), a leading global, multimedia news and information company with 2011 revenues of $2.3 billion, includes The New York Times, the International Herald Tribune, The Boston Globe, NYTimes.com, BostonGlobe.com, Boston.com, About.com and related properties. The Company’s core purpose is to enhance society by creating, collecting and distributing high-quality news, information and entertainment.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
OK, since you obviously are either a Romney hater, a Paul Bot or other since you have some much intelligence we all seem to lack just who do you suggest we vote for??
Like it or not the greater proportion of the electorate associated with the GOP has chosen Romney, like it or not. So you and others constant whining and chipping away serves no purpose to me except trying to draw attention to yourselves.
Just a quick civics lesson for you, we have a thing called CONGRESS that passes laws, taxes etc. Maybe you have given in to the Imperial nature of the current resident.
Whatever, sure, you can whine like a petulant teenage girl
What is the alternative at this stage you propose Professor?
Early voting Hamilton County, Tennessee..Republican 218,000, and Demorats 98,000..We need to do this everywhere
Obama is a Socialist/Communist cum community organizer...I would only vote for an American who loves his country....Obama doesn’t fit that description.
Compared to what...
This should explain it to some degree...
You act like Florida did not go for Obama in 2008. Sure it may not in 2012 but with Romney as the candidate Florida might say enough of the liberal Republicans.
Romney still has a chance to win a very close election.
The notion he will win in a blow out is a pipe dream though. Demographics now make it impossible for any GOP candidate to pull it off.
Bush - Dukakis was the last one ever.
LLS
This is important. Likely voters in battleground states.
Only a optimist would expect the GOP to take Pennsylvania - the urban areas are too large, and too corrupt; hell, the late, unlamented Murtha won his district after grossly insulting his constituents.
But Ohio and Florida are “must wins” for Romney.
Of course, the actual presidential election has not started yet. Wait and see, I guess.
I call complete BS, Obama is not up 11 points in PA.. his lead, if it exists at all, is well under 5.
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