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The Dinkins Effect in the Presidential Race
Commentary ^
| 07.31.2012
| John Steele Gordon
Posted on 08/01/2012 2:23:25 AM PDT by neverdem
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IIRC, it's also been called the Bradley Effect and the Wilder Effect from the former Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles and former Governor Doug Wilder of Virginia, respectively. It's not a new phenomenon. The rats can thank themselves for constantly playing the race card at every opportunity.
1
posted on
08/01/2012 2:23:34 AM PDT
by
neverdem
To: neverdem
Dinkins, the washroom attendant, was absolutely the worst mayor NY has ever seen.
2
posted on
08/01/2012 2:26:49 AM PDT
by
Doogle
((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
To: neverdem
3
posted on
08/01/2012 2:38:43 AM PDT
by
chuckee
To: neverdem
The Dinkins race was known for another issue; since his last race they no longer project winners earlier on election day because of the reaction as the day went on that he might win. Voters jammed the polls later in the day, and his loss was attributed to the projections throughout the day motivating his opposition.
He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I don’t think the city has ever recovered.
4
posted on
08/01/2012 2:45:24 AM PDT
by
kearnyirish2
(Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
To: neverdem
I think Obama should worry more about the “Oreo Effect” where in the latest polls over 90% of black folk still say they are going to vote for Obama...
...SAY they are going to vote for Obama—being black on the outside but going for the “white inside” the voting booth.
I work and know many black folks and they ain't all controlled by racial politics I can tell you...only they have to keep their true opinions about Obama—like OJ’s guilt—to themselves or suffer ostracism in the black community. Obama is counting on that over 90% and even a 5% drop could sink him.
5
posted on
08/01/2012 2:52:49 AM PDT
by
Happy Rain
("Obamacare like all Marxist fails, outlaws redress before creating it's demand.")
To: Happy Rain
I meant work “with” and know many black folk...
...without the “with” the sentence has an ominous meaning;)
6
posted on
08/01/2012 2:55:19 AM PDT
by
Happy Rain
("Obamacare like all Marxist fails, outlaws redress before creating it's demand.")
To: neverdem
... President Obama... Hes arrogant, often mean-spirited, sometimes downright nasty. He avoids taking responsibility for failure but takes all the credit for success. He doesnt have much of a sense of humor that I can see.But, but, but the New York Times and Washington Post love him....
7
posted on
08/01/2012 3:01:26 AM PDT
by
GOPJ
(Political correctness is simply George Orwell's Newspeak by a non-threatening name. FR- Bernard Marx)
To: Happy Rain
Five percent of 12% is 0.6%—less than a sixth of his margin in ‘08.
To: neverdem
I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It won’t make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).
To: 9YearLurker; Happy Rain
This isn’t ‘08 - Romney has already shown 10X more fight than McCain.
10
posted on
08/01/2012 3:33:17 AM PDT
by
FreedomPoster
(Islam delenda est)
To: neverdem
There are reasons to hope this year, but the fantasy of a “Bradley Effect” isn`t one of them. Remember in 2008, right here on FR, when so many were confident the factoring in of the “Bradley Effect” would deliver a win for McCain?
The “Bradley Effect” is a mirage.
11
posted on
08/01/2012 3:39:35 AM PDT
by
ScottinVA
(Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
To: Richard from IL
I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It wont make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52). It's even worse than that. His statement was "If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama . . ." which means one percent of voters, or a shift from 52-48 to 51-49.
12
posted on
08/01/2012 3:53:51 AM PDT
by
Pollster1
(Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
Comment #13 Removed by Moderator
To: Pollster1; ScottinVA; neverdem
The writer (and the article) could still be right in principle, but still, you have to wonder, how could someone who presumably passed the 5th grade make such a horrendous mistake in arithmetic.
14
posted on
08/01/2012 4:11:36 AM PDT
by
samtheman
(Obama. Mugabe. Chavez. (Obamugavez))
To: neverdem
Zer0 is Americas David Dinkins.
2 posted on Wednesday, August 24, 2011 11:06:33 PM by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies | Report Abuse]
15
posted on
08/01/2012 4:12:33 AM PDT
by
Roccus
To: ScottinVA
The Bradley Effect is a mirage. It's a sublte play of the race card to explain why a black candidate lost.
16
posted on
08/01/2012 4:19:35 AM PDT
by
IamConservative
(Well done is better than well said. - Ben Franklin)
To: ScottinVA
Well, except for the absolute fact that 4 years of Obama has totally cured ‘white guilt’!
17
posted on
08/01/2012 4:22:33 AM PDT
by
Beagle8U
(Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
To: neverdem
-—— tight as a tick, as Karl Rove terms it———
but, to wrap up his piece he says the polls in the important swing states are very old and meaningless but since they are the only polls available they were used. In some states there are no polls and they are counted as leaning. The results re thereby skewed in Obama’s favor.
I see his pieces on Fox and am convinced he is sandbagging Obama and will pull the rug from under him eventually
18
posted on
08/01/2012 4:27:11 AM PDT
by
bert
((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
To: kearnyirish2
He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I dont think the city has ever recovered. Dinkins behavior during the Crown Heights Riots, where he allowed rioters to rampage through an Orthodox Jewish section of Brooklyn for three days, was reprehensible. He convinced white voters that a black mayor would never protect them from black crime.
New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.
19
posted on
08/01/2012 4:34:46 AM PDT
by
PapaBear3625
(If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)
To: ScottinVA
Yep, right up until election day '08 there was no shortage of Freepers who claimed the polls were full of it and that the Bradley effect (and the "PUMAS" - remember that extinct species?) were going to give the election to the admiral's widdle kid.
Final score: Pollsters 1 - Deluded Freepers, 0.
20
posted on
08/01/2012 4:51:25 AM PDT
by
Notary Sojac
(Ut veniant omnes)
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