Rasmussen Obama 52 McCain 46

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/03/2008 | RasmussenReports.com

[SoftwareEngineer]

On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern

[meadsjn]

I just noticed — where are all the incumbent Democrat Senators and Congresspersons who should be out stumping for Obama? Pelosi and Reid seem to be keeping a low media profile for some reason. Maybe their hopes of bigger majorities in the House and Senate aren’t such a sure bet, at least on Obama’s coattails.

[rwilliam]

Here are the party affiliation numbers that Rasmussen is currently using:

Democrat - 39.9%
Republican - 33.4%

So, the poll includes a 6.5% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.

Today, Rasmussen has the poll as follows:

Obama - 52%
McCain - 46%

So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:

Obama - 12.1% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage
McCain - 12.6% greater than Republican party affiliation

That’s right! McCain is outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +0.5% greater than Obama!

If Republicans turn out to vote in great numbers tomorrow, this election will be very, very close. So, each and everyone of us needs to do our part to make that happen!

-Bob

[No Dems 2004]

While I’m not 100% sure that Obama will be defeated, I am acutely aware that Obama is also top-heavy in many of the blue states in polling. Just look at how polling firms are giving Obama these hugely exaggerated leads in states like New York and California. For instance, Obama holds like a 25 point or so lead in California while McCain holds a relatively modest 10-point lead in Texas. We’ll just have to see.

[jveritas]

Obama must win Pennsylvania or it is over for him. Obama is not going to win any of Bush states except may be Iowa and New Mexico and that is not enough for him to win the elections.

[Dave W]

Well, I guess they weren't oversampling Democrats...it did increase from 3 points two years ago to 7 this year.

And as for the 52% to 46% call - eerily correct.

I only mention this because every two years, this forum goes nuts over the polls and so many do not believe anything if it does not fit how they want to see the world. Sometimes information favoring the other side is correct and should be acknowledged as such.

[SoftwareEngineer]

No. I guess not. Rasmussen was spot on.

However, the total number of people voting was the same as in 2004.

Which actually means that the turnout was depressed. So about 7 million Republican voters stayed home.

I wonder how much of that was due to the polls

[Dave W]

That is an excellent point about the depressed turnout and I wonder, too how many people did not show up because of the polls.

On the other hand, McCain's GOTV apparently was not as good as Bush 2004. I read yesterday that the McCain campaign took all the money from Penn. GOTV operation and used them for commercials since they were strapped for cash.

So now we all are going to see the consequences of the nation's choice. Someone mentioned on the radio that in this perfect environment for Democrats, the most they could muster was 52.4%. This is their high water mark.