"Again? But that trick never works!"
Posted on 06/23/2008 8:33:43 AM PDT by WesternCulture
Are the ices of the Arctic north about to melt away for good? Rami Abdelrahman gets the views of a range of Swedish researchers.
Sweden’s Crown Princess Victoria is one of a number of Scandinavian royals making for the Arctic archipelago on the Swedish ice-breaker Oden this weekend to participate in an event to coincide with and promote International Polar Year.
But will there even be a need for such ice-breaking vessels in years to come? Many commentators would have us believe that glaciers and ocean ice are about to go the way of the dodo.
Upon their arrival at Svalbard in Norway, however, the royals are likely to be informed by Swedish polar researchers that there is in fact very little concrete proof tying global warming to climate changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Some indeed argue that there is more change in today’s political rhetoric than there is in the environment.
Last year Sweden invested more than 33 million kronor ($5 million) on research in the Arctic region, which covers almost one quarter of the nation’s landmass. Most of the Swedish funding, according to many researchers, goes mainly toward surveying the effects of climate change on glaciers and wildlife.
Professor Göran Ericsson from Umeå University will head a research delegation this summer to the Arctic north. His particular task is to study patterns of moose migration as they relate to climate change. Ericsson can literally “ring up a moose.”
“We have attached GPS trackers on more than 40 moose. Once you dial the code to the GPS tracker, you can find the exact location of the animal,” he says.
“Humans sweat when they get warm, but moose cannot do that. If the weather gets warmer they move towards colder places, often risking food shortages,” he tells The Local.
Ericsson says moose have always moved about in the sub-Arctic regions of the Swedish north. But what researchers are testing now is whether the animals are moving further north due to climate change. “Sometimes this proves right, and sometimes it proves wrong.”
Tomas Berg works with the Fjällräv (mountain fox) project, a venture aiming to preserve wildlife in the region. He too says it is difficult to ascertain what is really happening when it comes to climate change.
“We know that there is change, but we do not know in which direction. For example, the weather in the mountains might be warmer now, but in the long run it could get colder,” he says.
Cecilia Johansson from Uppsala University is equally unwilling to link milder weather in the Arctic with more general climate fluctuations. A lecturer in meteorology, Johansson flies to the Arctic region twice a year to study the effects of climate change on snow patterns.
“When it comes to weather and climate there are so many interrelated factors, triggering a chain of effects. For example, we had a warm winter in Sweden, but it was quite cold in the Mediterranean region. So we have to look at global warming from a global perspective.”
Every researcher seems to display a similar reticence when it comes to drawing far-reaching conclusions. Andrew Mercer studies the changes in glacier forms in the Arctic region at Stockholm University.
“It is quite a big picture -- we are talking about the whole planet. We have to compare many studies and often data is not available elsewhere in the same way it is here in Sweden,” he says, before adding that churches in Sweden have meteorological records dating back a few hundred years. Carl Linnaeus, the father of modern taxonomy, was one of the first Swedish scientists to study the effects of climate on wildlife.
“In the 1980s and 1990s, Swedish glaciers grew in size, which should indicate that we have had colder weather. But in fact there were other factors that contributed to their growth,” Mercer says.
However, climate has changed politics, especially in Sweden, as political parties include adaptation to climate change in their rhetoric and election campaigns. Mercer offers his view on the curious relationships between science and politics.
“What happened was that scientists sent out the results of their studies to politicians and the general public. Initially only the general public showed an interest. Politicians didn’t care. But once interest grew among the general public, the subject gradually made its way to the top of the politicians’ list of priorities,” he says.
The industrial sector also avoided the thorny issue of climate change for quite some time, thinking adaptation to a greener future a costly endeavour.
“However, scientists were able to prove that industry was damaging the climate. Scientists presented industries with possible scenarios and ways to adapt their products and mitigate climate change. With the growing interest in the general public, they began to see a new market with new opportunities.”
Mercer adds that industrialists are often on the same side as scientists, at least in Sweden.
“There is no such thing as a free lunch, though,” he says, explaining that it is cheaper for industries to avoid investing in new and green technologies, which are still in the development stage and remain expensive.
The discovery of oil has also added a new dimension to the geo-politics of the region. Investment has come pouring in from Europe, the US, Canada and Japan, as well as from Arab Gulf States, Latin America and China. According to National Geographic, 25 percent of all untapped global oil resources are to be found in the region.
But if oil reserves prove as plentiful as predicted, will there even be a need to drill through thick layers of ice in the future? The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, ACIA, anticipates the disappearance of all ocean ice in the period from 2060-2100 should global warming continue at the current rate. However, Swedish scientists are not convinced that today’s meteorological trends will stand the test of time.
Speaking of climate, did you get your new vehicle?
Well now we know why the moose once bit my sister!
Another story not worth mentioning....
- No I haven't.
I'm very satisfied with the car I have now, but maybe I'll buy a used Volvo XC90 later on this year or in 2009 if I feel I can afford it. I think a Cayenne would be too expensive considering the maintenance costs. I'd also say Cayennes depreciate quicker here in Sweden than XC90s.
Over here, the gas price has gone up something like 10% compared to one year ago, but this fact probably won't influence my future choice of car a lot as I don't drive that much (my new job is just a ten minute drive from home).
Are you still satisfied with your car?
We have a new sunspot: www.spaceweather.com Problem is that it is another last-cycle sunspot — which means the cycle that should have started months ago just isn’t starting.
Re sunspots: These are a result of magnetic activity in the sun. Fewer sunspots or a late starting cycle indicate less magnetic activity. This means less solar wind, which in turn means more cosmic rays from space reach Earth. That in turn means more condensation of water vapor in the atmosphere into clouds (part of cloud formation is cosmic rays ionizing dust particles in the atmosphere which then attract water vapor forming water droplets, i.e., clouds). In other words, more clouds. That has a net cooling effect and also incidentally results in more rain (see Midwest floods).
Now, the AGW crowd has tried to prove that the above doesn’t happen with statistical “studies,” computer models, etc. But the actual underlying physics is pretty bulletproof.
PS Some of the interactions are more complex. For example, why are the east coast and the midwest unusually cool while the west is getting blasted with a heat wave? Dunnno. But the fact that April and May were pretty cool globally and June is shaping up that way lends credence to these theories re sunspots and climate.
Anthropogenic Global warming is nonsense.
I am still enjoying my car, but I do need to have the fuel injectors cleaned. I wouldn’t mind getting another car and using my current one as my commuter car, but I can’t afford a another car right now. Frankly, I am still impressed with the new Saabs and wouldn’t mind getting one in the next couple of years.
The evidence of anthropogenic global warming pretty much boils down to effects of computer programs interpreting other computer programs.
The same goes for allegations concerning CFC emissions being the cause of the ozone layer depletion.
In the case of anthropogenic global warming, something the media, most politicians and even a lot of businesses of various sorts seldom acknowledge (or even fail to realize themselves) is that most scientific experts who warn of global warming being caused by man ADMIT there is actually very little evidence of this. Most of them are ALSO saying we can’t afford gamble though and similar things, but that is something completely different.
"Again? But that trick never works!"
at high noon in July, in my backyard, checking out the red-apple shaped hummingbird feeder...
They're not overly shy.
and they can come in handy for getting the trees out of the woods,
- Have you tried STP Fuel Injector Cleaner or some similar product?
I'm definitely not an expert when it comes to injectors - or any other area of automotive technology for that matter:D - but I've heard people say such products to have been well worth the money in their cases.
“I wouldn’t mind getting another car and using my current one as my commuter car, but I can’t afford a another car right now”
- Here in Europe, even a lot of married couples with children are satisfied with only one car. On the other hand, access to public transport is often better than in the US from what I've understood.
I don't know about Europe at large, but in Sweden there are about 0.55 cars per capita. In the US, I think there's something like 0.80 cars per capita.
“Frankly, I am still impressed with the new Saabs and wouldn’t mind getting one in the next couple of years.”
- I like SAAB a lot too. 20-30 years ago, most Swedes were either a SAAB-man or a Volvo-man and at that time Volvos and SAABs really WERE worlds apart construction wise. Today, Volvos have become more like SAABs; frontwheel drive, lots of rather original, innovative technological solutions and more of a “driver's car”.
By the way, Is your impression that there were more differences between a (standard) Chrysler, GM and Ford product in the past than there are today?
Funny thing, that “minor” fact of “non-sweating” moose being found all across the Midwest - and as far south as Iowa. (Which never gets hot, by the way. How stupid does a Swedish moose researcher have t be to ignore other country's wildlife distribution? /sarchasm)
By the way, does he really think that a 1/2 of 1 degree rise in temps over 30 years is going to be felt by any given moose wandering about in north Sweden? Much less cause that moose to CHANGE it's 100,000 year instinct towards migrations?
“Last night I enjoyed watching Ice Road Truckers rolling across the Arctic Ocean in 18 wheelers. I don’t think you can do that in the balmy clime the die hard AGW’s claim has come to the Arctic.”
- That series is shown on TV here in Sweden too. I haven’t seen it myself, but some of my friends recommended it to me, gotta check it out.
YouTube links if anyone would be interested:
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ice+road+truckers&search_type=&aq=f
Why would scientists have to present 'scenarios' to industry leaders, if they had PROOF of their causing damage to the climate? Industries don't affect the overall climate of the earth. They can affect a local area's air or water quality, and have an impact on local residents' quality of life, but they simply don't have the ability to affect anything like a global climate.
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