Posted on 11/05/2006 5:04:39 AM PST by Tennessean4Bush
With a new poll showing Republican Bob Corker's lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. surging to double digits days before Tuesday's election, both U.S. Senate campaigns scrambled Saturday to keep voters engaged and motivated.
The latest Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll, conducted by telephone Wednesday through Friday, showed Corker leading Ford 50-38 percent among 625 likely voters. Two weeks ago, the poll -- sponsored by The Commercial Appeal, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, MSNBC and McClatchy Newspapers -- gave Corker a 45-43 lead.
Ford changed his campaign schedule Saturday to fly from Knoxville back to Memphis to condemn the poll and encourage supporters.
"In all of these polls, the methodology has to be questioned," Ford said Saturday afternoon at a rally at the corner of Poplar and Highland. "All internal polls show this race as a dead heat."
Ford added that the polls don't reflect early votes, which totaled 867,000 statewide. In Shelby County, 142,411 people, nearly a quarter of all registered voters, cast absentee and early ballots.
Corker, meanwhile, in Knoxville shaking hands with University of Tennessee football fans, cautioned his supporters not to get overly confident.
"I know the momentum is with us, but we all know the only poll that matters is on Nov. 7 and we're just doing everything we can do to get people to vote," Corker said.
For Corker's campaign, the Mason-Dixon poll was another "credible independent poll" that showed their candidate leading Ford by anywhere from 5 to 10 points. Recent polls by CNN, Zogby and Rasmussen Reports all put Corker ahead.
But to Ford's campaign, it was another example of a "flawed" public poll that under-represents Democrats, African-Americans and young voters, and fails to account for the deluge in early voting that shows Democratic turnout up as much as 30 percent.
Pete Brodnitz, Ford's pollster, notes that internal Democratic and Republican polls continue to show the Tennessee race as too close to call.
"These internal polls use voter registration lists and voter histories to select potential poll respondents, as opposed to randomly dialing households, which is how the public polls are conducted," Brodnitz said.
"Because none of the polls made public this week use voter lists or histories to determine who is a 'likely voter' they include large numbers of respondents who are not actually voters."
Results of the most recent Mason-Dixon poll are all the more striking, considering that most public polls had Ford or Corker ahead by anywhere from 1 to 5 points in early October. The first Mason-Dixon poll, conducted the last week of September, gave Ford a 43-32 lead.
"Corker's biggest problem was division among the (Republican) ranks," said J. Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington.
Polls conducted before the August primaries showed Republican Corker leading Democrat Ford by several points.
"The Republican primary got ugly and that cost Corker some early support, but Tennessee has been trending Republican for years and this poll shows that Republicans are coming back to Corker."
John Geer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University, doubts that can account for Corker's 10-point surge in two weeks.
"A 12-point lead seems a little high at this point," Geer said.
"The results show that a lot of Republicans are coming home to Corker, and I can buy that, but this kind of surge in this short a time doesn't add up."
Geer says some of the poll's results seem contradictory.
For example, a majority of those polled (51-44 percent) said they disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, including more independents (47-44 percent). But when asked which candidate would do a better job handling issues related to the war, 49 percent picked Republican Corker and only 32 percent picked Democrat Ford.
Also, in the new poll, 47 percent said they think the country is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 57 percent two weeks ago.
"There's no way to explain the numbers, although all the polls seem to show Corker moving ahead," Geer said.
"I guess it's possible that the election in Tennessee is more about Ford than it is about Bush."
The Republican Party and Corker himself have injected millions of dollars into the campaign in recent weeks to try to make the election about Ford. Mason-Dixon's Coker said the poll shows that the Republican Party's massive anti-Ford ad campaign has served its purpose.
"People don't like to say that they are influenced by negative ads, but obviously they have been," Coker said. "Ford's negatives have made a big jump in the past few weeks."
According to the poll, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of Corker and 33 percent unfavorable.
For Ford, the numbers were 39 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.
Betty Hickman of Kingsport, who describes herself as a Republican, said it comes down to trust. "I think Corker will do what he says he'll do. I trust him; I don't trust Ford."
Rudy Newby of Tullahoma said the anti-Ford ads didn't change his mind.
"I'm a Democrat. I'm voting for Ford," Newby said.
"I believe Ford as a Democrat will do more for the common man."
Nearly everyone polled (86 percent) agreed that the campaign was "very negative" or "somewhat negative." When asked which candidate's campaign has been more negative, 27 percent said Corker and 12 percent said Ford, but 57 percent said both were about equally negative.
This campaign has been terrible," said Emma Cowan of Tullahoma, a Democrat who said she's voting for Ford. "If you have a TV, it's about the only thing you can see, those awful campaign ads. Both have been bad but I think Corker's have been worse."
According to the poll, the negative ads aimed at Ford seem to be helping Corker.
For example, 81 percent said they had seen an ad sponsored by the Republican National Committee that features a blonde woman saying she met "Harold" at a Playboy party and asks, seductively, for him to call her. Among those who saw the ad, 23 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Corker, 10 percent said Ford.
Diane Halford of Bartlett, who describes herself as an independent voting for Corker, said the negative ads sent her to the Internet to do her own research.
"It's been a smear campaign on both sides," said Halford. "All those horrible ads made me want to get the facts for myself. I didn't want personalities to have anything to do with my vote. I wanted to base my vote on their records."
we are trying!
I think this race turned 2 weeks ago when Ford approached Corker twice at Corker rallies. It made Jr look weak, defensive and awkward.
I think a third mistake by Ford was his playing the Jesus card. He was on camera with a news microphone to his face, when he said, "I love my Jesus." He's been so over the top with it that it comes across as entirely phony, which turns people off.
I think it also makes people notice that here's this democrat invoking the name of God like some televangelist, yet Republicans aren't allowed to merely utter the name of God in public.
I'd say it's all backfiring on his sorry butt.
Last year I was inspecting some goods being loaded into an export container. The loaders were young men, black and white. I joshed them about loading 16 tons and they didn't get it.
They had loaded more than 16 tons apiece and what did they get? Literally sore arms and backs.
In Knoxville Tennessee, barely 60 miles from his Bulls Gap home there was no knowledge of Tennessee Ernie. In a hiphop world, he is unknown
Yeah he was beginning to sound like Robert Tilton the 'farting preacher'.
I hope he follows Rush's advice and goes to Wall street for some real world experience. Professional politicians are a curse.
Former congressman Harold Ford Sr. (left) watches his son, Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, at a rally at Poplar Plaza. Earlier in the day, Harold Ford Jr. campaigned in Middle and East Tennessee. 
Backed up by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker speaks to supporters and members of the media Saturday in Knoxville, site of the UT-LSU game 
Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker meets supporters outside the stadium Saturday in Knoxville for some campaigning at the UT game against LSU. For dessert there were Moon Pies and bottled water. 
Harold Ford Jr. canvassed for votes outside Neyland Stadium also, on a brief stop in Knoxville. That's Vols fan Mike Smith of Johnson City, Tenn., with the "different" hairstyle. Ford supporters served pork and baked beans. Later, Ford returned to Memphis. Just had to post these. With the elder power looking on and JR getting the vote of the "Rooster" haired crowd lol. Corker has been helped by what seems as every UT game played in Neyland this October and so far in November.
Ford himself is a walking-talking negative ad.
Any guesses about how long it will be after the race is called that some pundit says the only reason Corker won was the "Playboy" ad...
If you like high taxes, more Government handouts, think that the Government owes you, think all non vets should have healthcare like combat disabled Vets- then you are a DEM. If you believe that all pawn shops are owned by Repubs-you are really a DEM. If you believe in higher taxes for small business- you are really a hard core LIB.If you are envious of the man or woman who writes your check- you are a hard core LIB. If your source of news is ABC, CBS,MSNBC, or NBC-you have been duped by the left. If you think you can wage war against the very boss who pays you- you are a prime time LIB.If you believe your boss owes you a life style like his/hers-you are a socialist. I suggest any who feels like any of the above ask themselves- "when was the last time you put up the land/paid the lease, raised the money, and, met a payroll." Ask yourself how many employees would you have to layoff if your taxes were raised, much less had any negative changes to your business factors?
Ford has a new radio ad. It says (roughly) "Are you a conservative? Bob Corker isn't. Vote for Harold Ford Jr. instead."
It reminded me of WWII movies where you see a Japanese soldier with a loudspeaker reading off a script to "demoralize" the enemy. I almost choked on my sandwich laughing at it. "Hey, Yankee dog! Uncle Sam no care for you. Join glorious Emperor Hirohito!"
Ford pulled the race card and lost.
the trend in this one was developing mid-week. Corker has it.
now, on to to worrying about Talent.
As a Tennessean, it was amazing to me how many folks in middle and east Tennessee didn't know about all of the dirty laundry associated with the Ford political family. Among their many frauds, deception has always been the Fords' greatest skill.
Harold Jr. seemed to be made of teflon, gladhanding his way through the campaign, until about three weeks ago. Finally, Ford's slick campaigning and national media cheerleading were overcome by the Corker campaign, which began to focus on Harold's ACTUAL VOTING RECORD.
Imagine that.
Just goes to show ya that Ford doesn't know what he's doing. If he really wanted to change those numbers he wouldn't be in Memphis where he's ALREADY way ahead with the Black Voters there. He would be in EAST TN where he's WAAAAAY BEHIND! But, he knows he doesn't have a prayer of winning those votes, and that's why he will LOSE TN. He has NEVER lived in TN (just like Al Gore). Tennesseans aren't that dumb! They're going to vote for the guy who was born and raised in their state. Only those in the Urban Areas will vote for Ford because they only know how to mark D on their Ballot. Tennessee is REPUBLICAN and Ford has already LOST!
The most effective ad against Ford, in my opinion, is the one being run showing that he is not a Tennessean, and has never been a Tennessean. Born and raised in DC, went to an Ivy League school, has lived in DC, and has been a professional politician his entire adult life.
Until four years ago, I lived in Johnson City (East TN)and our Local papers had Headlines all the time on the Ford Family Corruption. I think East TN Voters are pretty well informed about the Ford Family. There is NO WAY they will vote for Ford!
He can run for his old seat in two years.
It's always interesting to me as to exactly WHY someone would 'challenge a poll' just days before the real election will occur.
One theory is that Ford's people know that there will be significant voter fraud attempted and perpetrated by the Dems, and so the Dems issue "momentum shifting our way" polls just before election day to create a certain cover for the new resulting surprise comeback by the dem candidate.
For example, we saw that in Florida in the 2000 Presidential election, with the Gore people running marathon campaigning events and claiming a surprise groundswell in voters shifting to Gore.
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