Posted on 10/21/2018 1:46:47 PM PDT by Sir Napsalot
538 founder Nate Silver said the major "X-factor" in predicting the 2018 midterm elections is turnout and that is determined by the "Trumpian news cycle." He also said we might see "an October surprise or two" before November 6, in an interview on ABC's 'This Week.'
(snip)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: "...So there it comes down to 85 percent chance that Democrats win control (note: Nate Silver's prediction now). That sounds a lot bigger than it is, right?"NATE SILVER, 538: "...Not a lot of guarantees, but that’s why we show like a very wide range, anywhere from a 20 seat gain, the Democrats have a disappointing night which is not quite enough, up to 50, 60 seats if the turnout is – is very high."
STEPHANOPOULOS: "What are the biggest X-factors that increase the uncertainty in your model?"
SILVER: "It is turnout, I mean it’s – turnout is always difficult for pollsters to forecast and the fact that you have a lot of districts that have not had competitive races in a long time, turnout’s even more difficult to forecast there than in a state like Florida for example.
And we have two weeks to go, you know. I would not put it past us to have – for us to have another October surprise or two in the era of Trumpian news cycles."
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Whatever they decide to make up. Also looks like they are hoping for bad optics for Trump over the “caravan”.
Won’t matter. As long as we get out and vote, it will be a red wave.
The “October Surprise” just crossed a bridge in Mexico and is on its way to our southern border.
Timing of this “caravan” is awfully suspicious, no?
I’m of the bent that Trump will have his own October suprise. As he releases the FBI documents showing every one that Muller should be fired.
Isn't "turnout" what EVERY SINGLE election is based on? Every side, every position -
Turns out it was Trump on the Grassy Knoll in Dallas. Film at 11.
Am I the only one who sees the “Caravan” and its timing as blatantly obvious?
Setting groundwork for being wrong?
I cant help but think some drama with the stock market.
85 percent is WAY too high. Drop it to a 2 in 3 chance, and it might be believe able. He once again is dealing with crappy data.
Sounds like the DNC Voter Fraud Machine is getting ready to crank out millions.
This only helps President Trump and the gop.
If illegal immigration is not important to the republican electorate than the race is over anyway
That’s Silver’s slimy way of wiggling out of his wrong prediction, he’s already paved the exit excuse.
If I recall, he dropped Hillary down to a 70% chance of winning close to the election and was screamed at by liberals in the democrat party and the media.
The horde is the October surprise. Like Rush said it should actually help us IF TRUMP STOPS THEM. If they get in and the MSM gets their video of kids being separated it will be an electoral disaster.
The horde is the October surprise. Like Rush said it should actually help us IF TRUMP STOPS THEM. If they get in and the MSM gets their video of kids being separated it will be an electoral disaster.
Nate Silver. The same imbecile who correctly “guessed” the number for 2008 elections, yet afterwards could not even get within 10 points of the actual elections.
Nice cya, Nate.
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