Why those polls that say Clinton’s ahead could be wrong

CNBC ^ | October 13, 2016 | Jake Novak

[2ndDivisionVet]

There's one word to describe the major national presidential election polls over the last two weeks: "wild."

Just about all of those wild swings in the polls lately have been in favor of Hillary Clinton, as she's now increased her lead from less than one percentage point in the RealClearPolitics poll average to 4.6 points as of Thursday morning.

But there's another word you have to use when you see such massive swings in the polls in just a few days with less than a month to go before Election Day: "baloney." And the reason why they're baloney has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, partisan weighting, or even Russian hacking. It's all about common sense.

The wild poll swings we saw after the first debate and after the Donald Trump "Access Hollywood" tape was leaked were not a straightforward case of Trump did a poor job or Trump looked bad so fewer people now say they'll vote for him. What happens in polling is that, if your candidate does something that makes him or her look bad, or that you don't agree with, you're less likely to want to answer poll questions about him – even if it's anonymous. It doesn't mean you still don't support him. Just that right this minute, you really don't want to talk about it....

[Mr. Jeeves]

If Trump wins 51-46-3-1 it will be a crushing victory. I’m not sure it’s possible for him to get a much bigger margin than that with this electorate.

[Califreak]

Sometimes I feel guilty because they’re just trying to make a living...

But I’m not required by law to answer the phone or the door every time it rings.

[Gargantua]

We'll know soon enough. Your numbers are locked in, as are mine. I believe it'll be much closer to:

Trump ~ 65%

Clingon ~ 27%