Posted on 10/06/2016 7:33:10 AM PDT by LS
PPD/Emerson has Trump +1 in FL . . . but talk about screwy! He is at 18% with blacks and 35% with Hispanics! Sorry, unless you are polling lesbian academics, this is at minimum a 5-point poll and game over.
They also have a tie in NV (Team Trump is confident they are up in NV).
Emerson has Cankles leading AZ, even though Trump is getting 40% of the Hispanics there? Not a chance in hell. Trump will win AZ comfortably 7-10 points.
Interesting info out of Montgomery Co. OH: in 2012 absentees looked like this: R 7,400 D 3,179 I 25,007 . . . except these weren't really "Is." They were Ds who, according to OH law, were thrown back into the "I" bin because they did not vote in the uncontested D primary.
A friend, with intimate knowledge of OH voting records by household (i.e., whether an address voted D or R) and precinct level understanding (i.e., the likelihood that a voter in x precinct would be a D or R) "normalized" the numbers.
2012 "normalized" looks like this: D 15,144 R 13,021 I 7,443
here is 2016 without normalization as mailed out by the board of elections D 8,523 R 14,357 I 20,351
Here it is normalized according to voting history of the address: D 15,642 (36%) R 19,685 (45%) I 7,904 (18%)
What makes this especially interesting is that these are almost the SAME percentages I'm seeing with absentees in FL: 43-37-21
margin of fraud and the
minion media protecting their personal access.
if true that low testosterone Dr. needs to make an emergency call to those men.
remember GHWBush KNEW he was going to lose as early as September. He kept fighting to save key seats in states and congress.
PERHAPS (big PERHAPS) Hillary is minimizing her appearances and efforts to conserve as much cash as possible for her personal bank account post race.
“No, the totals are astounding. 1.088 MILLION Rs have requested ballots and 1/4 of all Republicans ALREADY have asked for ballots. I dont recall the previous 2012 numbers but Im pretty sure Rs are NOT behind pace.”
I agree on the totals but if dems are not as much but staying close behind isn’t that a problem (if true which it may not be)?
Thank you for your reply!
I saw this last night and I’m curious to hear whether you think it’s legit or not. It’s a supposed memo on polling done last month.
I tried to copy a portion from it but it’s a .pdf and it won’t let me cut and paste.
https://www.scribd.com/document/324776022/Monmouth
I don’t call 43%-37% close. That’s a Trump victory.
I have heard this is a hoax. Don’t know.
I should have googled the source first. Sorry.
Looks reasonable, seems reasonable. Like the “thousands of phony Hillary ballots in OH” story.
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Hmmm.... The other day I added up what I thought he'd get and got 311, if he take those you mentioned, that is 312, close...
Any word from your Gnomes LS on Michigan? Still within the margin of error?...
Yes I agree. It’s like even the democrats/communists know that if Hillary says what she will do (socialism) that is a loser with the voters so unfairly paint Trump as something bad that no one would want. In reality Trump is the best ever and the only one that can fix this mess politicians like Clinton and her husband (NAFTA ) got us into
Pollsters are assuming the electorate will be D +6.
Early ballot requests show the national electorate is likely to be R +2.
That changes the political landscape but Washington is stuck on the notion Hillary commands Obama style levels of support.
Its not true in reality and when Republicans outpace Democratic early voting across swing states you begin to catch a glimpse of the real picture.
None of this is being caught in current polls which is why as in 2014, they most are certainly way off.
Yes. This is an 8-point gap so far. I understand traditionally absentees in the past have been more R, but that has changed recently with states such as FL and OH pushing “early voting” and absentees being embraced by the parties.
Even if the electorate “only” ends up being D+1, that’s a tidal wave for Trump, especially considering he will draw large numbers of union voters and traditional democrats in PA, OH, KY, IN, MI, and VA.
MI is quite winnable. The word I get is “turnout,” meaning they are NOT automatically beaten by heavy D registrations. I think the recent tied polls are close, but that’s me, not Team Trump.
Vigo County, Indiana apparently always votes correctly. It is THE most reliable county predictor.
I think they are deliberately skewing the polls so that when they digitally alter the vote counts, it will be believed.
Also, Daily Mail keeps posting articles leading people to believe Clinton is ahead...such as:
“Clinton leads Trump by six points in survey - as polling average shows she is having strongest week ever”
and
“Clinton camp says they could crush Trump BEFORE Election Day by building up ‘insurmountable lead’ in early vote count in swing states”
Meh, I say the same thing. Trump has already won.
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